Download a PowerPoint presentation of David Archibald’s latest edit of his paper, “The Past and Future of Climate” presented at the Lavoisier Conference in Melbourne June 2007.
This is my 4th posting since late 2006 on this subject of contrasting forecasts for solar cycle 24, click below for links to earlier posts.
Continue reading Solar Cycle 23 not ending yet
Category Archives: News and Views
Politician speaks truth
Tim Blair reports how the NSW Treasurer Michael Costa, in the NSW Upper House, referred to Dr Tim Flannery as an idiot. I would say that if you are going to run around making pro IPCC, doomster predictions knocking the idea that rain will fill dams, influencing national policy, then when the opposite happens, you have to wear it.
The NSW Treasurer, Michael Costa, has called Tim Flannery an “idiot” …
Mr Costa, a renowned climate change sceptic, made his comments in question time in the Legislative Council, saying the environmental campaigner Mr Flannery was wrong to say that dams were going to dry up because of climate change.
Mr Costa referred to “idiots like Tim Flannery saying it’ll never rain” as he launched into a tirade against the theory of greenhouse gases.
He said Mr Flannery and others continually came up with “ridiculous propositions” and told Coalition MPs he would not have appointed Mr Flannery Australian of the Year.
Note on the Gippsland floods
I love seeing the Victorian Premier Bracks on morning TV, fresh from approving a giant, money wasting $3.1Billion seawater desalination plant at Wonthaggi, now prattling on about GL here and there as though he is an expert in dams, river flows, whatever. Pathetic. Fresh from just doubling water prices too.
Remember that Greens and weak kneed politicians killed the proposal for a dam on the Mitchell. Will anyone calculate the value of the water wasting to sea down the Mitchell river, at the cost of water from the proposed Wonthaggi desal plant ? I think it is a non PC calculation that I might eventually have to do.
Did Australian scientists/students pull down this tree in the Maldives ?
It is well known that the IPCC has made publicity about the threat of rising sea levels to island states such as the Maldives. The media has run many articles puffing up this notion that the islands are doomed.
Dr Nils-Axel Mörner recounts in a recent interview how he visited the Maldives and found various evidence that sea levels have been stable within a range for many decades. On pages 3-4 he relates how,
“There came an Australian sea-level team, which was for the IPCC and against me. Then the students pulled down the tree by hand! They destroyed the evidence. What kind of people are those?”
The picture I have used here is from the documentary “CBC – Global Warming Doomsday Called Off” which can be viewed on VideoGoogle. The short section mentioning this tree starts at about 27 minutes.
I am keen to discover who it was in 2003 that pulled this tree down, what University or Institute did they come from ? Does anyone know of a “sea level team” that visited the Maldives in 2003 ? I can be emailed sanur2007 AT warwickhughes.com
Sensational statements by Dr Kevin Trenberth, IPCC supporter
Dr Trenberth says,
“In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.”
There are an awful lot of policy makers and others driven by the the content of the Al Gore movie and the general blizzard of scary predictions of the future pumped out by the media, that are sure acting as though they believe the IPCC makes predictions; and good, believable predictions too.
For the full statement by Dr Trenberth and many comments, go to the Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog.
Climate predictions “right only half the time”
From: Terry Dunleavy [terry.dunleavy@nzclimatescience.org.nz]
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition
Media release (immediate) 7 June 2007
World climate predictors right only half the time
“The open admission by a climate scientist of the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dr Jim Renwick, that his organisation achieves only 50 per cent accuracy in its climate forecasts, and that this is as good as any other forecaster around the world, should be a wake-up call for world political leaders,” said Rear Admiral Jack Welch, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.
Yesterday the coalition published an analysis of seasonal climate predictions by NIWA over the past five years which found that the overall accuracy of the predictions was just 48 per cent.
Defending the Niwa record, Dr Renwick said his organisation was doing as well as any other weather forecaster around the world. He was quoted by the country’s leading newspaper, the New Zealand Herald as saying: “Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.” Later on New Zealand radio, Dr Renwick said: “The weather is not predictable beyond a week or two.”
Continue reading Climate predictions “right only half the time”
Weather station urban heating realities
Anthony Watts of northern California has just posted some very informative photographs of weather recording stations in his region north of San Francisco showing the temperature sensors placed near local heat sources. (ClimateAudit has a new post too introducing Anthony’s work.)
In 2001 I put up a page on what the various temperature data told for the Los Angeles grid cell.
More recently a paper in 2005 found that both the LA grid cell (30-35N, 115-120W) and San Francisco grid cell (35-40N, 120-125W) where Anthony’s stations locate, both have greatly varying trends 1976-2003 according to whether you believe Jones et al/CRU data or the GHCN data. See my post Is this 2005 paper by leading IPCC climate scientists, deceptive ? which links to my new map showing that in 57% of global grid boxes, CRU and GHCN vary by more than 1 degree per century.
Continue reading Weather station urban heating realities
Blog upgrade
I have heard muttering in the ranks that comments have not been getting through our trained ranks of expert censors (Bad Behavior and Spam Karma). So we decided to do what any corporation does when faced with failure – upgrade everything in sight and give the place a good lick of paint.
Thus, the WordPress software has been upgraded to the latest and greatest version (2.2) as has Bad Behavior and Spam Karma. And the theme has been upgraded as the old one didn’t work with the new regime and had to be “reintroduced to the challenges of the market place” as they would say in IBM.
If you have trouble with commenting, then please e-mail me at inward AT warwickhughes.com and our crack team of experts will retrieve your immortal prose from the flames. Maybe.
Transporting Kimberley water to Australian capitals by tanker
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I looked for cost estimates to build these million ton supertankers but could not see anything.
West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall
These quotes are from Hansard for Question time in the WA Legislative Assembly, Thursday 17 May 2007. Note, Hansard is the Australian Parliamentary transcripts, or diary.
Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”
The Premier was answering a question which included the Agritech proposal to produce water for Perth from Wellington Dam, full text is reproduced below.
Data for this graphic is from the WA Govt WaterCorp website.
NOTE: Wellington Dam (just west of Collie in SW WA) overflowed in 2005 and near overflowed in 2006, despite the low rainfall that year. In most years WaterCorp releases several tens of GL of water from the foot of the dam to reduce salinity. This water now wasted and other available water would be the basis for Agritech’s proposal to supply water to Perth see: www.agritechsmartwater.com.au/
To see several graphics putting SW WA rainfall in perspective with catchment flows and Govt policy, click here.
Continue reading West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall
BoM rain predictions “totally useless”
We are talking here about the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) “National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook”. The BoM produces these predictive maps every month looking ahead for the next three months. I have for some years been critical that these Outlook maps are too often grossly wrong when compared to the rain anomaly maps National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook produced by the BoM, 100 days or more later of course.
See my pages where Outlook maps are juxtaposed with real world rain anomalies. The quote of “totally useless” in my post headline comes from an article on ABC Online news, ABC being our Govt. owned Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Continue reading BoM rain predictions “totally useless”