Drought and Rainfall History in Australia

Continuation of critiques of BoM 3 month rainfall "Outlooks for periods prior to Jan-Mar 2004

Following are reviews of rainfall "outlook" forecast maps against actual results, from Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) web site. The BoM publish a rainfall outlook every month for the next three months ahead. So we have these rolling three month forecasts which are in the left hand column. Each month they also publish the actual rainfall map for the preceding three months so I have matched these side by side. Any missing periods are due to missing maps on the BoM site. Scroll down for newest maps. The motivation for this comparison is to rub in the point that the best climate scientists can not predict the weather three months ahead yet Australian (and international) climate scientists purport to predict the climate three decades and more ahead using Greenhouse climate models. Similar reviews of BoM temperature Outlook maps are posted in the Coolwire 8 newsletter found at http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/

Model Prediction December 2001 outlook for January to March 2002	Actual rainfall and my comments SW WA predicted good rains plain wrong, central WA rain not hinted at in model. North NSW Sthn. Qld predicted huge wet a no go, coast actually dry. SA dry result not hinted in model. Central Qld dry was forecast.

Posted March 2002 for April to June 2002	SW WA OK. Large central Aust dry result not hinted at in Outlook. Broad E area of green, total miss.

Posted April 2002 for May to July 2002	SW WA pretty good. Huge area of dry in centre not hinted at in model which has vast area near av. East NSW wet predict, 95% wrong. Coastal west Vic dry predict, 80% wrong as coast actually had normal rain.Broad Qld rain predict 90% wrong, Tasmania wrong.

Posted May 2002 for June to August 2002	SW WA OK. Pilbara normal to dry not damp, centre pretty good, north Qld good, coastal west Vic wrong again, Tasmania wrong again. SE Qld damp patch not forecast but hey !! we do not want to nit pick this 6.5 out of 10 result.

June 2002 for July to September 2002	SW WA wrong this time, Eucla coast dry missed in model, north Qld good, east NSW wrong, Tasmania wrong again.

July 2002 for August to October 2002	SW WA wrong again, Eucla coast wrong again, east NSW wrong again, Cape York pen. wrong, huge dry predict central Qld unconvincing, west coast Vic right, Tasmania wrong, again.

August 2002 for September to November 2002	SW WA patchy result, north & central WA damp not predicted, north Qld dry good model fit, north NSW/south Qld predicted damp wrong, predicted SA Vic dry a dud, Tasmania NE OK but rest not good.

February 2003 for March to May 2003	SW WA wrong again, Pilbara wet pretty good, SA to Alice dry not predicted, SA predicted wet area fails to eventuate, north Qld wet patch predicted turned out normal, coastal NSW damper than predicted, Tasmania, better.

March 2003 for April to June 2003	SW WA predicted damp fails again, broad area of rain predicted from Kimberleys through to west Qld missed mark. Qld / NSW border a bogey area in model again, Darwin area wrong, Tasmania wrong again.

April 2003 for May to July 2003	SW WA wrong again, vast areas WA wrong, Kimberley to Alice wet predict turns out strong dry anomaly, Cape York OK, huge wet predict for south Qld north NSW complete fantasy, still a major bogey in this model, Adelaide through Vic mostly wrong, Tasmania wrong, again.

May 2003 for June to August 2003	SW WA missed again, Kimberley's better, huge area of wet predicted Qld NSW largely fantasy again, SW Vic predict dry, actually above average, coastal NSW predicted wet, actually dry, inland NSW rain not reflected at all in model but hey !! Tasmania, a good result at last.

June 2003 for July to September 2003	SW WA OK, Pilbara top marks, north Qld wet predict pretty much dead wrong, as are coastal regions of broad area of eastern predicted rain. Gold coast dry result not hinted at in model, coastal NSW dry again after wet forecast, Tasmania back to being wrong again.

July 2003 for August to October 2003	SW WA good, broad northern damp predict turned out 80% dud, south Qld north NSW wet predict fails again, Tasmania wrong, again.

August 2003 for September to November 2003	Trend of broad wet result in WA not hinted at in model, broad area of predicted northern wet mostly wrong, particularly over Qld which was dry. South Qld north NSW predicted wet mostly wrong again. Model often wrong in this area.Tasmania not as bad as other runs.

September 2003 for October to December 2003, "Wetter in northeast and west, drier in far southeast", says the BoM bravely.	SW WA wrong, Pilbara huge wet predict went spectacularly wrong, broad area of northern and central wet pretty good, Qld brave wet predict turned out dry to average, coastal Vic predicted dry turned out average, Tasmania OK.

October 2003 for November 03 to January 2004, "Above average falls likely in tropical Australia", says the BoM, mostly right this time.	Northern wet area good, Pilbara wet predict 50% right, south WA and SA wet result not seen in model, west Qld to New England wet result not seen in model, Tasmania v good. It looks as if the NCC has altered the model parameters.

November 2003 for December 2003 to February 2004 "Neutral odds for summer rainfall", says the BoM	Vast area of north and central wet result not picked in model, north Qld coast predicted wet mainly average, Tasmania wrong again.