Model Prediction, BoM comments
Maximum temperature Outlook
Map for August to October 2005 published by BoM July
2005.The BoM predicted; "Above average temperatures more likely
for coming season." |
Actual temperature anomaly maps from
the BoM four
months after the corresponding Outlook and my comments.
Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for August to October
2005. Comments: Total failure
in the WA sector where model warmth turned out to be COOL. Pretty
good anomaly shape in East Aust. But overall model was TOO WARM compared to result .
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| Minimum temperature Outlook
Map for August to October 2005 published by BoM
July 2005.The BoM predicted; "Above average temperatures more likely
for coming season."
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Observed minimum temperature
anomalies for August to October
2005. Comments: Severe failure in the S WA
sector, fair result in East Aust. But overall model was TOO WARM compared to result . |
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| Maximum temperature Outlook
Map for July to September 2005 published by BoM June
2005.The BoM predicted; "Odds point to warmer than average
September quarter."
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Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for July to September
2005. Comments: Pretty fair overall, one of the better results. However
several areas show mild cooling yet NO COOLING areas were predicted.
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| Minimum temperature Outlook
Map for July to September 2005 published by BoM June
2005. The BoM predicted; "Odds point to warmer than average
September quarter." |
Observed minimum temperature
anomalies for July to September
2005. Comments: Much worse than the max result above. True axis of
warm anomalies not hinted at in model. South WA result EXACTLY WRONG .
So often the BoM is EXACTLY wrong, puzzling. |
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Maximum
temperature Outlook Map for June to August 2005 published by
BoM May 2005. The BoM
predicted; "Odds point to warmer
than average winter."
Link to Rainfall Outlooks
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Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for June to August 2005. Comments: Intensity of S WA
warmth totally wrong. Actual focus of warmth in SE Aust EXACTLY WRONG compared to
model. Model overall TOO
WARM. When added to the BoM failed prediction for "Reduced winter rainfall more likely in
parts of southern Australia", what a shocker of a result by the BoM for
this key cropping season. |
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| Minimum temperature Outlook
Map for June to August 2005 published by BoM May 2005. The BoM predicted; "Odds
point to warmer than average winter." |
Observed minimum temperature
anomalies for June to August 2005. Comments: Focus of warmth in model EXACTLY WRONG because focus of
warmth ws on opposite side of Aust. Intesity of model warmth in S WA EXACTLY WRONG because the area
COOLED. Appalling result for the
BoM. |
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Maximum temperature Outlook Map for May to July
2005 published by BoM April 2005. The BoM predicted; "Increased
seasonal temperatures for tropics & WA." |
Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for May to July 2005. Comments: Nothing about the broad shape of the model predictions
actually happened. The peaks of
warmth predicted for S WA and N Aust. both failed to happen and
the COOL predicted for E Aust. failed to happen. Just hopeless result for the BoM.
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| Minimum temperature Outlook
Map for May to July 2005 published by BoM April 2005. The BoM predicted; "Increased
seasonal temperatures for tropics & WA." |
Observed minimum temperature
anomalies for May to July 2005. Comments: Model warmth in NE Aust. failed to take shape. Intensity
of warmth in WA another model
failure. SE Aust. better result. |
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| Maximum
temperature Outlook Map for April to June 2005 published by BoM
March 2005. The BoM predicted; "Increased seasonal temperatures for
tropics & western WA." |
Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for April to June 2005. Comments: How wrong can the
BoM be. Predicted intense warm in N Aust. fails to show, actual axis of warmth is over 1000 kms
south, exactly where the BoM modeled their COOL axis.
So another case of the BoM being EXACTLY WRONG. WA predicted warm
patch EXACTLY where warm
anomalies weaken.
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| Minimum temperature Outlook
Map for April to June 2005 published by BoM March 2005. The BoM predicted; "Increased
seasonal temperatures for tropics & western WA."
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Observed minimum
temperature anomalies for April to
June 2005. Comments: yet to be included. Model peak warmth in N Aust. was
actually COOLEST part of the anomaly map. EXACTLY WRONG AGAIN.
Predicted intensity of S WA warmth failed to happen.. Actual axis of
warmth through the centre NOT
PREDICTED in model. Small % area in southern Aust. gives best
result for this panel.
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| Maximum temperature Outlook
Map for March to May 2005 published by BoM February 2005. The BoM predicted; "Above
average autumn temperatures favoured in Qld & northern NT."
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Observed maximum temperature
anomalies for March to May 2005. BoM predicted cool trough NW from Vic was a total
failure main warm focus was in the centre and west, not the NE.
Substantial failure. |
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Minimum temperature Outlook Map
for March to May 2005 published
by BoM February 2005. The BoM predicted; "Above
average autumn temperatures favoured in Qld & northern NT."
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Observed minimum temperature
anomalies for March to May 2005. The BoM got the cool SE
Aust fair but completely missed
the large coastal cool anomaly from the Kimberley clockwise around to
SE Aust. Once again the main warm focus was in the centre and
west rather than the north, which was cool.
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Maximum temperature
Outlook Map for February to
April 2005 published by BoM January 2005. The BoM predicted; "Higher
temperatures likely in north and east."
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Observed
maximum temperature anomalies for February to April 2005.The BoM got the cool SE Aust fair but the main warm focus was in the centre and
west. Warmer overall than their prediction ? .
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Minimum temperature Outlook Map for
February to April 2005 published by BoM January 2005. The BoM predicted; "Higher
temperatures likely in north and east."
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Observed minimum temperature anomalies
for February to April 2005. The BoM
got the cool SE Aust very good but the predicted main warm focus was quite
wrong.
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Maximum temperature
Outlook Map for January to March 2005 published by
BoM December 2004 The BoM predicted; "Higher
temperatures likely in north and east."
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Observed maximum
temperature anomalies for January to March 2005. Comments:
The BoM got the cool SE Aust pretty good but the main warm focus was in the NW not the
far N .
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Minimum temperature
Outlook Map for January to March 2005 published by BoM December
2004 The BoM predicted; "Higher temperatures likely in north
and east."
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Observed minimum
temperature anomalies for January to March 2005. Comments:
The
BoM predicted warm north was nearer averageand the SE cool patch was
far to small.
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Maximum temperature Outlook Map for
December to February 2005 published by BoM
November 2004 The BoM predicted; "Hot
summer favoured in much of eastern Australia."
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Observed
maximum temperature anomalies for December to February 2005. Comments:
The BoM was WRONG
again, the Hot summer was in NW Australia.
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Minimum temperature Outlook Map for
December to February 2005 published by BoM November 2004. The BoM predicted; "Hot
summer favoured in much of eastern Australia."
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Observed minimum temperature anomalies
for December to February 2005 . Comments: The BoM gets some
marks for overall shape here but was WRONG in that the result is overall
cooler than the predict and the main locus of warmth in the Pilbara is
far removed from their prediction.
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Maximum temperature Outlook Map for
November to January 2005 published by BoM
October 2004 The BoM predicted;"Above
average temperatures favoured for eastern Australia"
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Observed
maximum temperature anomalies for November to January 2005. Comments: To keep
this short. The BoM was TOTALLY
WRONG.
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Minimum temperature Outlook Map for
November to January 2005 published by BoM
October 2004 The BoM predicted;"Above average temperatures favoured
for eastern Australia"
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Observed
minimum temperature anomalies for November to January 2005. Comments: To keep
this short again. The BoM was TOTALLY
WRONG, again.
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