"The Kyoto Protocol: don't forget the science",  with over 70  Figures by Bob Foster,  can be downloaded  in pdf from the Lavoisier site

Here are Bob's introductory comments:

We still don't know what drives climate.  But when you string together what we do know, it comes to a lot already   and it is bad news indeed for IPCC.   The essence of the IPCC story is the prediction of harmful human-caused global warming in the decades and centuries ahead.  The corollary is that if we do the right thing about curtailing human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, we can stabilise global climate.

Now look at the evidence:

• The models on which IPCC relies to scare us about the future fail the first fundamental test - a match with the warming observed over the past century.
• In order to reconcile over-predicting models with an under-warming world,  IPCC has invoked aerosol cooling.
• But the short-lived aerosols are mostly emitted in the Northern Hemisphere - where observed warming at the surface and in the lower atmosphere is not less, but distinctly more, than in the Southern hemisphere.  Aerosol cooling has been much over estimated.
• Thus, and even taking all 20th century warming as caused by GHG emissions, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere has been over-estimated by the models.
• This conclusion is powerfully confirmed by observation.  Greenhouse is a phenomenon of the lower atmosphere ie no warming of the atmosphere means no resultant warming at the surface.  It is this latter which we call greenhouse warming.
• We now have a reasonably-good coverage of atmospheric temperatures back to 1958, and a comprehensive global coverage from 1979.  Save for a step-jump in 1976/7, there has been little warming trend in atmospheric temperatures in the last 42 years.
• The 1976/7 jump is the major feature in the 20th century temperature record, and it is almost certainly unrelated to human-caused changes in the composition of the atmosphere.
• This change is a 'non-linear transition between climate states' such is specifically excluded from the ambit of the models which IPCC has invoked to scare us.
• It is manifested by abruptly-reduced upwelling of cold deep water in the equatorial and northern eastern Pacific, by an abrupt  increase in sea-surface temperature (and probably rainfall) in the central equatorial  Pacific, by an increase in the heat-content of the surface layers of the world's great oceans, by cooling at the Caribbean sea-surface, and by an abrupt change in the trend of length-of-day increase.
• We see here, not evidence of human interference with climate, but of an abrupt major re-ordering of oceanic heat transportation.
• It appears that this remarkable step-change is inertially-driven   Directly or indirectly, it appears most likely to linked to radius of gyration changes, and subsequent LOD variations as Earth preserves angular momentum.
• 
  I call this my Oceanic Impedance hypothesis of global climate change.

  Posted 13, October, 2000
  Updated 7, November
  © 2001  Bob Foster
  www.globalwarming-news.com
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