Scientists at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks have recently published a paper describing the Fairbanks urban heat island. An abstract is available from the internet, see bottom of page. This seems like a good opportunity to look at publicly available temperature data for Fairbanks and see how the Jones / IPCC data corrects for this now documented UHI warming..
In the Jones et al 1985 hard copy documentation (see ref. below), station
lists 702617 FAIRBANKS/EXP STAT. with data from 1915 to 1981 and 701928
UNIVERSITY EXP STA with data from 1922 to 1981, neither of which
were corrected. Both stations are listed as 147.9 degrees West but
UNIVERSITY EXP STA is 64.9 degrees North and FAIRBANKS/EXP STAT
is 64.8 degrees North.
In the Jones 1994 digital data file, 702610 AK FAIRBANKS/INTL
is added with data from 1942 to 1990 located at the same lat
/ long as FAIRBANKS/EXP STAT.
In the 1996 update digital file there are no Fairbanks stations reporting.
The graphic shows the three stations, the two long term stations have
little trend but AK FAIRBANKS/INTL has a warming trend of about 1.8
degrees mainly due to the data only being available from 1942. What
could be the point of this "doubling up" of the Fairbanks warming trend
by the addition of AK Fairbanks/Intl in the 1994 update ?
Current Debate:
In response to an emailed comment to Timo Hameranta from Dr Jones,
"We don't use the Fairbanks data.."
I posted the following on the Climate Sceptics website 19 September
2002.
Dear Timo,
Thank you again for your efforts running the Climate Sceptics discussion
group which leads to so much interesting email. Re your mail of 13
September.
I note with interest a comment to you from Phil Jones "We don't
use the Fairbanks data.." Not sure as to exact meaning of this, maybe
it translates as "We don't use the Fairbanks data - NOW.."
Because his team used two Fairbanks stations in their late 80's global
compilation and 1991 update,
701928 UNIVERSITY EXP STA
702617 FAIRBANKS/EXP STAT.
then added a third station for the 1994 update making,
701928 UNIVERSITY EXP STA
702610 AK FAIRBANKS/INTL
702617 FAIRBANKS/EXP STAT.
Global policy makers went to the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 with the
benefit of the first version Fairbanks data and to Kyoto with the 1994
update.
Does this mean that Phil Jones now accepts that Fairbanks data is UHI
affected ?
Is he still using Anchorage data ?
It would be very helpful to have a full list of stations that
Phil Jones no longer uses with date that usage ceased.
Phil talks about a new study due soon. The documentation for this needs
to be vastly improved over earlier efforts. We should be able to access
grid cell trends maybe by a clikkable map a la the GISS site. All station
data contributing to those trends should be downloadable, updated to recent
months.
Best wishes,
Warwick Hughes
But there is worse than the inclusion of UHI affected
Fairbanks.
In the 1996 update digital file of Jones 1994 station data, only Anchorage
is reporting from the 5 degrees grid cell which takes in Fairbanks and
Anchorage. Note Anchorage falls exactly on the grid cell boundary so it
contributes to two grid cells. However in recent years only Anchorage is
contributing annually to the Fairbanks / Anchorage grid point temperature
anonaly, unless of course the documentation is not correct.
Maybe some stations are slow to report.
Perhaps it will all be explained in some future paper.
This is a feature of the Jones network in the old USSR too, stations
failing to report tend to be more rural leaving the remaining stations
with more urban component as years go by, see my report on data quality
above 50 degrees north.
Like Fairbanks stations, Jones uses Anchorage uncorrected.
There is a more rural station, Matanuska AES just ~60 km NE of Anchorage
and a comparison with Anchorage indicates there could be urbanization warming
in Anchorage of about 0.9 degrees C in 60 years. Jones 1994
only used Matanuska/Exp Stat. to 1969, another example of shortened
data in the Jones compilations.
(Data for Matanuska AES is from the Western Regional Climate Center
website at:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/climsmak.html )
This is another example of how long term rural temperature trends fail to confirm the existence of "global warming", in an area of the planet where models have long told us the warming will be severe.
These people claiming that the UHI effect is "properly taken into account by the IPCC" should now explain how the Anchorage and Fairbanks urban heat islands are "properly taken into account".
References from my "about page":
Jones PD , Raper SCB, Cherry BSG, Goodess CM, Wigley TML, Santer
B, Kelly PM, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, . (1985) TR022 A Grid
Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Northern Hemisphere. Office
of Energy Research ,Carbon Dioxide Research Division, US Department
of Energy. Under Contract No. DE-ACO2-79EV10098
Financial support was obtained from the Alaska Climate
Research Center, grant to the Univ of Alaska by the State of Alaska.