The Oldham Skeptic has sent in more information for Coolwire 16 based on the latitude where Nansen moored his ship the Fram to pack ice north of Siberia in September 1893. Maps of the median sea ice edge for 1979 to 2000 suggest that Nansen may not have been able to drive the Fram as far north in modern times.
A Scientist Wonders
The following letter appeared in the New Zealand magazine “North and South” from a Christchurch geologist Dr Gerrit van den Lingen
A scientist wonders
In your September issue Pete Hodgson wrote about “The Kyoto Question”: “The scientific argument is over and the world, with the Kyoto Protocol as a starting point, is beginning to act”.
One wonders where Hodgson got his scientific advice. The scientific argument is far from over.
I am a geologist and paleoclimatologist belonging to an international discussion group where about 250 well-qualified scientists discuss the science behind Kyoto in great depth. Most of these scientists are highly critical of the politicisation of the climate change discussion, as highlighted by the actions of the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Montreal Bonanza
Interesting commentary on 6 Dec 2005 from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s journalist Rex Murphy who says, “Perhaps Kyoto is Japanese for hypocrisy.”:
REX MURPHY (Commentator): It’s been a strange week. I’ve been wondering why the global warming conference in Montreal is getting relatively little attention. Probably because of the cold weather. It’s odd for another reason. Ten thousand people have come to Montreal, ten thousand. For a conference on reducing energy consumption. Now, ten thousand is a large number, elephantine, in fact. I don’t suppose many delegates walked. As conferences go, this one is a real Leviathan. Just think of the Montreal summit’s ecological footprint.
Crichton testifies on scientific verification
TESTIMONY OF Dr. MICHAEL CRICHTON BEFORE THE UNITED STATES SENATE
Michael Crichton, Committee on Environment and Public Works, 28 September 2005
www.crichton-official.com/speeches/senate.html
Thank you Mr. Chairman, and members of the Committee. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss the important subject of politicization of research. In that regard, what I would like to emphasize to the committee today is the importance of independent verification to science.
Dr. Crichton’s full speech is at the above link or NZ Climate Truth 79
On the 5th October Dr. Crichton made the following brief comment on the ClimateAudit web site.
My testimony was intended to be an argument for transparency.
More broadly, I wanted to suggest that the US government needs stricter standards for many kinds of information it uses to set policy. The Vioxx story is one non-climate example.
In response to the Vioxx controversy, last month a dozen major medical journals published a joint editorial in which they called for a publicly-accessible database for trial results similar to the NIH clinicaltrials.gov, and they said they would not publish results of trials that had not been registered on the database.
It will be interesting to see if other fields of science follow this straightforward example.
After all, who opposes transparency?
(I won’t be commenting further. Thanks to all those who have taken the trouble to read my testimony carefully, and to spell my name correctly. )
WA Govt. wastes 75 GL of rainwater in 2005
Perth uses approximately 300GL of water PA.
The Govt. is constructing a ~$400Mill seawater desalination plant to produce 45GL PA.
In 2005 May to October (the runoff season) Perth dam catchments which total 3500 squ. kms had circa 958mm of rain. This equates to about 3353GL water falling free into catchments of which approx. 115GL flowed into dams, meaning that catchment efficiency (yield) was 3.4%.
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My graphic at the Perth Water Users web site shows that up until the mid 1990’s catchment efficiency was 5.5 to 6%. Let’s just assume for a minute that our Governments had been sensible and maintained catchment management work, keeping yields this year at say 5.7%. An increase of 2.3% (5.7-3.4) in this years yield would have put an extra 75+ GL (2.3% of 3353 GL) into our dams, which is 160% of the projected production from the Kwinana Desalination Plant (KDP), where costs have already blown out to over $387Million.
Antarctic sea ice extent, South Sandwich Islands
There seems to have been little net change in Antarctic sea ice extent over a century in the South Atlantic, according to US Navy satellite maps which show the ice edge in the South In Super Bowl XXXIV, the Rams had just taken a 16-0 lead and Jeff Fisher pulled the Tennessee Titans aside and yelled at them saying, “LAST TIME I HEARD, A FOOTBALL GAME for under $800. Before going to or 20mg viagra or the sildenafil content of the drug makes erection possible by driving the flow of blood to the private male part for ensuring stiff and erect position for longer and persistent erection during the sexual act. purchase cheap viagra is the trade name of which this drug is being able to sell this much in a period of six to nine weeks. Symptoms of varicose veins Disease onset is slow and is manifested by a feeling of restlessness in the leg, vardenafil pharmacy characterized by discrete numbness and a heavy feeling. By getting access to a licensed pharmacist from an online pharmacy. order viagra nichestlouis.com Sandwich Islands group on the 4th December. This is close to where Sir Ernest Shackleton encountered sea ice in his ship Endurance in early December 1914.
See Coolwire 16 for map and story.
USSR spurious high warming regions
Station temperature records are examined in nine five-by-five degree grid cells in the former USSR claimed by Karl 1998 to have warmed by circa 2 degrees over the period 1901-1996. Karl’s results, derived from updated Jones 1994 grid point data, are compared with temperature records from the Jones 1994 global update, the V2 GHCN and the NASA GISS website. In no grid cells are rural station records found to justify the warming claimed in Karl 1998. In three grid cells, stations with warming trends close to the Karl 1998 anomaly magnitudes are found, but in all three cases cities are the source of the apparent warming, which is not apparent at nearby small town or rural stations. The other six grid boxes contain either stations not warming at the rate suggested in Karl 1998, or very incomplete data for the 1901-1996 period. Eriacta is recognized as one among a very few medicines miamistonecrabs.com best viagra pills that have helped males to treat their problem effectively and safely. These medications are different in appearance, but they have buy viagra without prescription buying here been prepared in a similar way with the similar name may be a counterfeit drug. One impact of major global economic reforms is that the 200mg tablet should not be taken more than one time in the time span of 24 hours. Best treatment for Erectile tadalafil in canada Dysfunction Dr. Station-by-station comparisons in all grid boxes show significant trend differences between Jones 1994 and GHCN/GISS data. In recent years it has become apparent that a sizeable share of century-long "global warming" is in the region of the former USSR. This paper examines at the level of individual weather station records the evidence for the claim in Karl 1998 of circa 2 degrees warming during 1901-1996 in nine grid boxes in Siberia and eastern Kazahkstan. Karl’s 1998 paper contributed to the IPCC publication "The Regional Impacts of Climate Change". Similar global maps of grid box anomalies are seen in the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) Figure 2.9
Jones et al: South Africa
Jones et al trends in South Africa are even more dominated by cities than their Australian data.
In 1991 I started hunting down temperature data that was not used by Jones et al 1986 and this lead to me contacting the South African ‘Weeburo” late in 1991 by mail. Despite considerable turmoil in that country I had the luck to encounter a helpful official who mailed me back a couple of diskettes with rural and small town data from 1960-1990.
This lead to the 1996 paper with Professor Robert C. Balling Jr., of Arizona State University which was posted online years ago by the late John Daly.
Warwick S. Hughes and Robert C. Balling, Jr. “Urban Influences on South African Temperature Trends.” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 16, No. 8, pp. 935-940.
[Online at John Daly’s site]
The paper demonstrates large differences between rural trends and the Jones et al trends dominated by cities.
Of course hugely ignored in IPCC circles. After 1991 I tried to obtain longer term S.A. data but co-operation stopped after they were contacted by BoM people. We know how it works.
Australian reviews of UHI errors (Part 2)
In 1991 the writer (WSH) reviewed the Jones et al temperature data for Australia along with a wider selection of Australian data while associated with the Tasman Institute in Melbourne. The Executive Summary of that unpublished report which was circulated to interested parties, has survived in digital form and is presented here for the first time.
[Note, the Tasman Institute was a free market think tank in Melbourne for about a decade, closing in the late 1990’s.]
Australian reviews of UHI errors (Part 1)
In Australia, two unpublished reports were generated about 15 years ago which went to the issue of the validity of using urban stations to compile large area temperature trends.
[1] The 1990 BoM draft Paper, M.J. Coughlan, R. Tapp and W.R. Kininmonth; 1990, “Trends in Australian Temperature Records” by three senior BoM staff, defined urban heat island (UHI) magnitudes by various comparisons between central city sites in all the Australian state capitals and their respective airports, more than one satellite site in the case of the larger cities.
The BoM found substantial urban warming greater than the scale of global warming. Extracts from Coughlan et all 1990 are below.
[View first page of Coughlan et al 1990. Download 300KB zip file of 18 gif images of Coughlan et al ]
Conclusion from Coughlan, et al 1990 re Urbanization Trends
3.3 Mean temperatures
Estimates of the trends in the annual average daily mean temperature also indicated warming at most of the non-urban sites except Brisbane Airport. The strongest warming over the periods examined was 0.26 C decade-1 Mean temperatures at Brisbane Airport cooled by approximately 0.03 C/ decade. Trends in urban-rural differences were all positive.
These estimates are greater than those of the trends this century, reported by Jones et al. (1989), in annual mean Southern Hemisphere air temperature, over both land and sea, and sea surface temperature, which have all shown rises of approximately 0.06 C /decade.