IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Is massive UHI warming in China distorting Jones et al gridded T data ?

4 Comments

A recent paper discussing long term temperature trends in China presents a graphic of century long trends including the Jones data.

“ZHAO Zongci, DING Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, “Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China” , Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2005, Vol 19, 389-400.”

The caption refers to four trends from various sources being coloured but my copy was B & W. Anyway, it is clear there is much agreement and what really tweaked my interest was the strong warming post 1970.

Using the gridded data downloadable from www.CO2science.org comparisons have been made between the Jones data and the UAH / NASA satellite MSU data for the period (1979-2005). Results in Table A for a block of eight grid cells covering much of Eastern China were quite stunning in revealing a difference of 0.96 degrees C for the 27 year period 1979-2005.

Jones vs MSU trends 1979-2005

Can anyone have any doubt that the reason for this huge difference is in fact the influence of rapidly expanding UHI warming on China weather station data?

Similar experiments were repeated over Europe, Central Asia / Russia, Sahara to Iran(added 18 Aug) and New Zealand. Results are set out in Table A and reveal a stark contrast to the blizzard of pro-IPCC views in recent times that global temperature datasets from the surface and lower troposhere are now in substantial agreement following corrections by the UAH team.

Any agreement in global trends between the various datasets is probably due to the averaging of various errors from here and there to give an appearance of agreement.

News and Views

Wegman on “Dueling Weblogs” and Information Asymmetry

15 Comments

John A: I would like to emphasize that the following is my personal view and not necessarily that of Steve McIntyre or Ross McKitrick.

In amongst the consideration of the proxy, statistical and social network evidence of the Wegman report, there is also this (page 48), which I could construe (albeit distantly) as a personal criticism:

5. As mentioned in our introduction, much of the discussion on the ‘hockey stick’
issue has taken place on competing web blogs. Our committee believes that web
blogs are not an appropriate way to conduct science and thus the blogs give
credence to the fact that these global warming issues are have migrated from the
realm of rational scientific discourse. Unfortunately, the factions involved have
become highly and passionately polarized.

Continue reading Wegman on “Dueling Weblogs” and Information Asymmetry →

Climate indicators, Cryosphere

Antarctic Peninsula warmer in mid-Holocene

11 Comments

Some interesting papers from an AGU conference.
“Mid Holocene Warmth in the Antarctic Peninsula: evidence from the Vega Drift”. So, 4000 to 7000 years ago this area was warmer than now.

Jumbo piston core NBP0003-38, a 20.53 meter core from the Vega Drift (Erebus and Terror Gulf, northeastern Antarctic Peninsula), contains a high resolution record of climate extending back ~8500 years. Lithologic and foraminiferal data presented previously document mid-Holocene conditions warmer than today. These data include increased clay concentration, higher concentrations of ice-rafted debris, and higher magnetic susceptibility below ~6000 ybp, the consequence of extensive meltwater and iceberg calving. This change in lithology is accompanied by the presence of a benthic foraminferal assemblage characteristic of the western Antarctic Peninsula, as contrasted to a lower productivity assemblage observed in the upper section of core. New diatom data confirm mid-Holocene warmth, as based on analysis of the distribution of the two varieties of the species Eucampia antarctica. They are distinguished by their symmetry, with the asymmetric E. antarctica var. antarctica characteristic of subpolar waters and the symmetric E. antarctica var. recta a polar form. Increased relative abundance of the sub-polar form occurs between ~4000-7000 ybp, overlapping and then post-dating the time interval characterized by increased ice melt. In addition, the ratio of terminal to intercalary valves was analyzed. A direct consequence of chain length, a function of the amount of growth, this ratio has been used to record oscillations in winter sea ice cover. Data from JPC38 show longest chain lengths (and least winter sea ice) from ~4000-7000 ybp, in concert with the dominance of the sub-polar form of the species. These data suggest the possibility that mid-Holocene warmth at this site was associated with the southward migration of sub-polar waters and consequently less winter sea ice.

So much for all the years of the British Antarctic Survey beating up warming trends from station data there.

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Jun Jaegyu volcano, an Antarctic submarine volcano, was dredged in May 2004 during cruise 04-04 of the RV Laurence M. Gould to determine rock, sediment composition and marine macroinvertebrate diversity. The objectives of this study are to examine the benthic assemblages and biodiversity present on a young volcano. The volcano is located on the continental shelf of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, where recent changes in surface temperature and ice shelf stability have been observed. This volcano was originally swath-mapped during cruise 01-07 of the Research Vessel-Ice Breaker Nathaniel B. Palmer. During LMG04-04 we also studied the volcano using a SCUD video camera, and performed temperature surveys along the flanks and crest. Both the video and the dredge indicate a seafloor surface heavily colonized by benthic organisms. Indications of fairly recent lava flows are given by the absence of marine life on regions of the volcano.

Jun Jaegyu volcano

We are looking for more data.

Cryosphere, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record

Svalbard inhomogenous temperature data

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The Norwegian island of Svalbard, (previously Spitzbergen) has been the locus of some abnormal warm monthly temperatures of late. See recent post on RealClimate by Drs Michael Mann and Phil Jones.

In mid 2000 I commented on the inhomogenous warm trend in Isfjord Radio data. There are comparisons with nearest neighbours, comments on the Jones et al 1986 station intercomparisons and even some comments by Dr Jones.

In conclusion I wrote:

On the basis of the Andenes and TromsØ differences, the wild variations and erratic warm drift in homogeneity between these stations should have been reason for Isfjord Radio to be rejected. No notes or reference to retaining Isfjord Radio as some special case, are to be found in Jones et al 1991 and its retention in the database represents a touching faith in geostatistics outliers.

Looking at the idea that ice melting could be the reason for the rapid warming in Spitzbegen 1912-1923, consider the global map of Jones 1994 temperature anomalies 1901-1996 in Karl 1998 and we see the the Svalbard (Spitzbergen) grid box warms at about 4 degrees, twice that of any other grid box on the planet.

If this rapid warming was due to ice melting, common sense tells us it must have happened somewhere else. A huge magnitude rapid warming such as this could not just occur in a 5 degree grid box. Look at the high northern latitudes on the Karl 1998 map and there are no other comparable examples despite a good scattering of stations above the Arctic Circle.

This case is a manifestation of the lapse in critical standards in climatology, which is after all a very new and ( up to the advent of the IPCC ), very small science.

Just to end up with an example from the real world of mineral exploration known well to the writer. Geochemical and geophysical data which are the mainstay of the orebody discovery process are littered with outlier values that if targeted with drilling would rapidly bankrupt any mineral exploration company. Exploration geologists every day have to deal with filtering out spurious signals from their geostatistics so that scarce exploration funding is not wasted.

In the current world of climatology, large amounts of greenhouse industry controlled taxpayer funded research grants will inevitably dull essential scientific scepticism.

IPCC, News and Views

That Kyoto Is A Fraud

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Contributed by Owen McShane

Introduction

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I acknowledge that the city of Kyoto exists. Any claims to the contrary are fraudulent.

However, the protocol developed out of the IPCC conference in Kyoto is a fraud, because it is based on fraudulent assumptions, fraudulent models and fraudulent manipulations of data.

First, a few key points:

  • Climate Change is real. Claims that the climate is static and unchanging are fraudulent.
  • Claims that the burning of fossil fuels has released large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere are not fraudulent.
  • Claims that this carbon dioxide is a "pollutant" are fraudulent because carbon dioxide is a benign gas which is also a fertilizer and necessary for the growth of plants.

The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims a consensus exists that global average temperatures may increase by 1 or 2 degrees by the end of the century. This claim is probably not fraudulent in itself.

However, most of the other IPCC assumptions, which have led to the Kyoto Protocol, are fraudulent. This necessarily means that the Kyoto protocol itself is a fraud and that our [NZ] government is the victim of a major scam.

I shall now deal with the fourteen key fraudulent items which have been used to construct the fraudulent Kyoto Protocol.

Continue reading That Kyoto Is A Fraud →

Atmospheric science, IPCC

The Royal Society and the “dead hand of consensus”

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Contributed by Bob Foster

There is no one “contrarian view” on climate change – nor should there be. What is needed, surely, is a ferment of ideas – each judged on its intrinsic merit, and not just on the status of its proposer – to serve collectively as a contra to the dead hand of consensus, which currently strangles thinking in climate-change science. Anyone who believes that the science of climate is already resolved is either naïve, or has confused science with politics. No-one understands climate in all crucial aspects.

An eminently plausible hypothesis is that Earth does not journey in an empty universe. Neither does it enjoy a self-contained climate – stable until only now disturbed by people burning fossil fuels. Correlations suggest that the primary driver of our ever-changing climate, from the multi-millennial time-scale right down to that better called weather, is extra-terrestrial.

Crucially, the timing of future solar/planetary influences can be calculated; and if the Sun keeps playing by the rules, the next Little Ice Age cold period will be fully developed by 2030. People suffered terribly in the Maunder Minimum.

Continue reading The Royal Society and the “dead hand of consensus” →

IPCC, News and Views

“BOINCing” to Oblivion

5 Comments

In February 2005 Coolwire 11 commented on the ridiculous Oxford University based mass clinate modelling experiment where people all over the world (no doubt mainly in taxpayer-funded places) engaged thousands of PCs to run modelling software. Results were reported back to HQ and all sorts of wild speculative claims about future warming have been made in the media from late 2004 based on these dubious numbers.

Now we hear that in a massive "mea culpa", the group’s "head honcho" has had to admit to major errors in their programs.

Continue reading “BOINCing” to Oblivion →

GISS, News and Views

GISS/NASA/NOAA graphics illustrate significant UHI truths

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In a 2000 paper submitted to JGR-Atmospheres GISS lead authors and several other leading US experts in the field of temperature data history include two very simple diagrams which illustrate major truths about how how urban influences impact on temperature station data.

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Does anybody believe that global trends reflect the "undisturbed temperature" as drawn on these figures ?

Sorry for the lack of fresh posts this month.

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends.

2 Comments

San Juan was studied in the 1980’s by C.E Duchon who published in 1986, "Temperature Trends at San Juan, Puerto Rico, Bull.Amer.Met.Soc. 67, 1370-1377. A downloadable pdf file of this paper is available through BAMS. Click on Print Version for Duchon, Claude E.

My 20th Anniversary Review of Jones et al 1986 explores how San Juan was specifically mentioned in Wood’s 1988 critique of Jones et al 1986. The issue of San Juan was elucidated in the Wigley & Jones reply to Wood 1988 see point (5) in my Table listing the sparring between Wood and Wigley & Jones.
Continue reading San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends. →

News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Urban cooling in Sweden?

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Do you know that GISS sometimes correct temperature data for supposed urban cooling? Let us look at examples from southern Sweden.

The three towns Karlstad, Jönköping, and Visby all have small airports. Of these towns, Visby is located on Gotland, the largest island in the Baltic Sea. Karlstad lies on the northern shores of the largest lake of Sweden, while Jönköping lies on the southern shores of the second largest lake. These two lakes are nearby to each other, and it seems unlikely that there could be any climate change at one of them not affecting the other.
Continue reading Urban cooling in Sweden? →

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations