BoM Australia, Water

Queensland Flood Commission says to lower Wivenhoe Dam levels to 75% on basis September forecasts

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This of course assumes that a reliable forecast exists – on which to base this proposed very serious action. The only forecasts I am aware of are the BoM Rainfall Outlooks which are published usually after the middle of the month and cover the next 3 calendar months.

I have just checked the BoM September Rainfall Outlooks for the 11 years of their archive, for the Brisbane catchment area. I make the score 5 wins, 5 failures and 1 too close to call.

If valuable dam water is to be released from say October onwards – on the basis of useless BoM 3 month forecasts – then it is inevitable there will be a considerable risk that this will be in vain.

But it would help to keep upward pressure on the price of water.

From mid 2010 I have several articles critical of BoM Outlooks:

BoM incompetence again – for the 5th month in a row

Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#2 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#3 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month

#4 Temperature too – not just rain – ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month after month

#5 BoM Spring Outlooks – rain and temperature – more hopelessly wrong models

BoM Australia, IPCC, Surface Record

Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate

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Just saw this news at ABC online. “Pirates disrupting climate change research”

Note at the end – “….so right now half the tropical Indian Ocean is out of bounds for us so it’s a big problem, both for weather forecasting but also for that longer term climate seasonal forecasting.”

Continue reading Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate →

Resources, Solar

Another 3.2Bn taxpayers dollars down the gurgler

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I read where Govt is establishing ARENA – the “Australian Renewable Energy Agency” – to manage $3.2 billion of renewable energy funding.

Some great quotes by the Green Senator Christine Milne – “It has been obvious for years that renewable energy programs in Australia are a mess of badly designed schemes run as photo opportunities…”.

Can anyone remember a worse performance by an Australian Prime Minister – bypassing Parliament to announce this huge new Carbon Dioxide Tax. Clearly her advisers must have told her, “…you could lose a vote…”.

Resources, Solar

Wasting taxpayers money on solar power

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I have started this post in the hope readers can dig up more information about the history, projected cost vs final cost – claimed performance at announcement vs actual performance (if you can ever find out) – for various solar electricity generating projects. Overseas examples are welcome too.

I was prompted by Canberra GreenLabor Govt announcements in last few days of two projects that will consume $Bn’s of poor old taxpayer $’s, one at Moree in NSW and the other at Chinchilla in Queensland.

Then there is Mildura – which has been planned for some years – is it coming closer ? The owners – Silex do not seem to be enjoying a rush of investors.

Silex six months chart share price

This Wikipedia page has a summary of Australian solar electricity projects – planned and completed – so there are some starting points for investigators.

Remember too the White Cliffs project – closed now I assume – but what did that cost over the years – for how much useful electricity ?

I expect – that like windmills – these solar schemes will all be shamelessly hyped to sell them to Govts – I expect cost over-runs and that later performance reality will not be as it was hyped – but as usual with any of these subsidised boondoggles – it will not be easy to discover hard facts.

Climate indicators

Emperor penguin in New Zealand – confused by “climate change”

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Residents of south east Australia would not be surprised to see an Emperor Penguin lately.

News and Views

Has there ever been an Australian Prime Minister to rival Julia Gillard ?

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The ABC has this online poll asking for three words to describe your views on how Ms Gillard’s minority Government has performed.

PM Julia Gillard in 100 words
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I am trying to think of any previous PM who may have got a worse result – any ideas ?
I realise some of these entries are from GreenLeft ABC readers to the left of the PM.

News and Views

New Zealand has not suffered a sequence of big shakes like this in recorded history..

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This jaw dropping quote from an unspecified GNS seismologist, is in an article in the New Zealand Herald by John Roughan. “Tell Christchurch whole story”

As a now ancient geologist I am somewhat gobsmacked that in over a hundred years of logging earthquakes up and down the Alpine Fault – there apparently has not been a sequence to equal the last nine months around Christchurch.

We really are in uncharted waters.

BoM Australia

Was the BoM asleep as volcanic ash shuts down flights ?

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At 8am Sunday 12 June we have ABC 24hr TV news reporting that New Zealand has cancelled some Trans-Tasman flights due to volcanic ash from the eruption in Chile. Not a word about ash affecting our skies – then at the end of the news a mention that Tasmanian flights are now affected – is the BoM waking up ?

Now this ash cloud has circled the globe eastwards thus passing near Australia before closing any NZ airspace.

Yet at 8am on the 12th there are no warnings on the Bureau of Meteorology website warnings page – and no mention of ash on their front page – despite the Cordon Caulle volcano in Chile eruption starting on 4th June.

Pretty much hopeless – yes we know it is a holiday weekend in SE Australia.

Resources

Bluescope Steel Chairman speaks out against the Carbon Tax

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Garnaut’s Attack on Business and Industry Oversteps the Mark

07 June 11 Media Release – Ross Garnaut’s credibility as an independent expert adviser on Climate Change is seriously in question following his latest report and attack on business and industry, writes Graham Kraehe, Bluescope Steel Limited Chairman.
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See also Bluescope Steel – 03/05/2011 ASX Announcement – Aust. Federal Government`s Proposed Carbon Pricing Mechanism

It is encouraging to see leading people from Australian industry speaking out – but we can only hope that the millions of workers that will be adversely affected by the Carbon Tax will not vote for it in 2012.

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations