Resources

Climate Change minister says methane worth $1.60 carbon tax per ton of coal

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The Australian Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, The Hon Greg Combet AM, MP, appeared on TV last night – interviewed on the ABC flagship current affairs program the 7.30 Report.

About two thirds of the way through the presenter Leigh Sales asks him

“Australia is heavily dependent on coal production. The Australian Coal Association released research yesterday showing that none of our competitors in coal production are applying carbon taxes or emissions reduction schemes. So, is a carbon price going to put Australia at a competitive disadvantage?”

The Minister replies – “No, it will not. ….” and you can read the transcript – then he says –

“On the coal industry specifically, at an example of a $20-per-tonne carbon price, the average liability for each tonne of coal mined in our economy for its methane emissions would be about $1.60 per tonne, and that’s in a context where steaming coal’s selling for more than $120 a tonne and coking coal in particular’s selling for more than $320 a tonne.”

I am puzzled at this reference to the methane and the pretty small number of $1.60. Does anybody know what he was driving at – unless it was just to utter a small number ?

I thought it worthwhile linking my chart again which shows Australian emissions have flattened off anyway – while those for China are just booming on skywards

China and Australia carbon emissions

…making anything we do irrelevant.

BoM Australia, Surface Record

Non-climatic anomalies in BoM temperature anomaly maps

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While compiling the Autumn Temperature Outlooks piece – I noticed what looked like an aberration in the contouring of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Autumn minimum temperature anomaly maps here – features that were repeated in the monthly minimum anomaly maps for March – April – May 2011.

I am talking about the area near the SW corner of the Northern Territory (NT)- a remote region with sparse data where two stations in particular seem to be at the centre of aberrant contouring over many months – and I have checked back as far as 2002 where the feature shows very obviously month after month.

The two stations concerned are; Walungurru – Number:15664 Opened: 2001 – and Giles Meteorological Office Number:13017 Opened: 1956. Of course the two stations are very different – Walungurru at a remote community – only has a few years of data, and of course averages over the 1961-1990 period would have to be estimated from neighbours and this site suggests no neighbours are close.

I have not found a photo of the instruments site or found exactly where BoM Station Walungurru Number:15664 is located other than Lat: 23.27° S, Lon: 129.38° E, Elevation: 454 m. – and when I clicked on a map icon for details I read – “The information for this station 015664 is not available now, but it may be available in the future”.

This image from GoogleEarth shows the layout at Walungurru / Kintore – the Lat-Lon plots just under the red “T”. It is a possible location seeing that public servants would attend the sewage/water works. I would expect to see a fenced enclosure.
Giles on the other hand is a purpose built – I expect state of the art – worlds best practice meteorological station.

This map of the Minimum Temperature Anomaly for Autumn 2011 has the approximate locations of Walungurru and Giles marked, the two places are ~220 km apart. We see in this map how the Walungurru data forms an anomalously warm pimple in the contouring while Giles is the opposite, forming a cool pit.
Autumn BoM min T anomaly map Australia 2001

This pattern is too common to be natural see my 2002-2007 animation of annual minimum anomalies where Walungurru is always prominent.

You get the point. So often anomalous – I think it stands out that the BoM map construction has incorporated a problem.

This could be caused if the BoM estimated Walungurru anomalies for the 1961-1990 standard reference period assuming too great a warming in the minimum temperature. That could explain why the Walungurru site so often produces a “warm pimple” in the contouring which because of the mathematics of the contouring produces a dipole effect “cool pit” in neighbouring Giles, in effect preventing the more reliable Giles data having its proper influence.

And I have only picked one small area of the map.

BoM Australia

BoM Autumn Outlooks mostly wrong again – nights predicted way too warm.

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Once again 3 months of real weather has shown the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Outlook predictions produced every month looking ahead three months – are mostly wrong.

In the first panel I compare the Maximum Temperature Outlook on the left with real world weather result to the right. The SE and Tasmania was predicted to have warm days but failed with cool anomalies ruling. The warmth in SW WA was unsuspected by the BoM. Also the focus of cool anomalies in the NW of Australia was also completely missed by the BoM model.

Obviously the predicted cool patch in Eastern Australia would score some points out of the result – but I think on balance a less than 50% score.
Autumn 2011 comparison

The Minimum Temperature result is far worse with the model predicting anomalously warm nights over vast areas of the continent – except for a cool patch in the NW.

As we see in the right hand map, in fact the vast majority of Australia enjoyed anomalously cool nights – exactly opposite to BoM model expectations – and the deepest cool anomaly was over Queensland, not the NW. I would estimate this score at well under 50%.
Model comparison 2011

Note the BoM media release about the record cold autumn, possibly a 94 year record since 1917.

IPCC, Resources

Kyoto deal loses four big nations

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Just saw this at Anthony Watts. “Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol at United Nations talks this year and the US reiterated it would remain outside the treaty, European diplomats have said. From our SMH no less. How will this help our GreenLabor Govt in its efforts to introduce a Carbon Tax ?

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News and Views

Leading Australian actor Cate Blanchett fronts carbon tax campaign

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Look Cate – we love your movies – thanks for all the hours of enjoyment – and we look forward to enjoying your work for years to come – but please you should stick to what you know best. You are too good an actor to lend your image in political advertisements.

dear Cate
“And finally, doing something about climate change,” Blanchett adds.

Sorry Cate but nothing we do in Australia can possibly make any difference – as this graphic comparing Chinese and Australian emissions proves.

What this tax will certainly achieve is to reduce the standard of living for many Australians – who will be overwhelmingly be less wealthy than you. Not a good look for you I don’t think.

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Sino emissions

We could de-industrialise Australia – just leaving some quarries for the Chinese – and the drop in global emissions would not be noticed alongside the scale of Chinese increases.

In the same advert – Michael Caton says, “What if we say yes, to making big companies pay, when they pollute our skies?

“We’d be saying yes to less carbon pollution”.

What pathetic GreenLabor spin – trying to blame “big polluters” – when the reality is that all of us who use electricity, or drive our cars, or fly in an airliner, or eat bought food, ride a bus, ride a train, use manufactured products – we are the “polluters”, according to the rationale behind the crazy IPCC inspired GreenLabor great big new Carbon Dioxide Tax.

BoM Australia, Jones et al, Surface Record

Canberra Airport scores a 54 year record for cold May mornings

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Today the 29th of May – Canberra Airport minimum temperature went under 0 degrees for the nineteenth day this month.

This exceeds the 18 days under zero which were recorded in May of 1959 and 1961. The record standing now is from 1957 which had 27 days with minimums under zero. Data at Canberra Airport station # 70014 starts in 1939.

I understand this is weather not climate but we all know how the BoM trumpets any warm record it can in the main stream media – so we will be interested to see what the BoM says after the month ends. And we must remember this cold record was set despite the ever increasing Canberra urban heat island.

Water

Wentworth Group scientists quit ‘flawed’ Murray-Darling process

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Good riddance say I.

A group of leading scientists contributing to the development of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority’s (MDBA) plan has pulled out of the process, calling the plan to fix the ailing river system seriously flawed.

The Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists says it can not be part of a plan which it says will fail to fix the river system but waste billions of taxpayer dollars.

The group says no less than 4,000 gigalitres must be returned to the Murray-Darling river system in order to fix it, but says it appears that will not happen under the draft plan so it has resigned from the process.

Read on below

Continue reading Wentworth Group scientists quit ‘flawed’ Murray-Darling process →

BoM Australia, Surface Record

No, I am not making this up

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I saw where Chris Gilham over at the Anthony Watts site is talking about the record heat in Perth last summer and start to 2011.

Jan-March BoM 3 Month max T prediction 2011
Jan-March BoM 3 Month max T prediction 2011

 

 Had to drive home the disastrous BoM Maximum Temperature Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar. Could anything be so wrong ?

Note in the Yahoo news item how the BoM – completely without shame talk up their next Outlook !

I was curious if this record heat is as marked in rural areas around Perth – and looking at BoM monthly data for Jan to April in 1978 and 2011 – you can see the answer is – probably not.

From north to south, Pearce RAAF base was 0.05 degrees warmer in 2011 compared 1978, Northam was 0.125 warmer (round how you like), York was exactly unchanged and Karnet was 0.65 cooler in 2011.

I suggest people take 5 or 10min to investigate the data for regions they know.

What a shambles. No wonder Phil Jones mostly stuck to cities. Continue reading No, I am not making this up →

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations