This time we show the huge divergence between the September quarter Rainfall Outlook – and the actual rainfall deciles for the same period.

Clearly the BoM have near zero predictive skills over 1 to 3 months out – any minor agreements are probably due to chance.

Yet our nations policy on carbon emissions will be built assuming the BoM and their supporting pro-IPCC orgs have predictive skills that compel our GreenLabor Govt to believe we will be seriously warmer over the coming century.

We are told by the BoM that September rainfall could be an all time record for Australia. Note this surreal article in the Sydney Morning Herald which starts by saying, “Global warming may have given Australia its wettest September in more than 100 years, but “extreme dry years” lie ahead, the Bureau of Meteorology says.”

This seems to me to be in contradiction of the facts as reported by weatherzone.com.au who say, “After their coldest winter in 13 years Sydney residents have just experienced their coldest September in five years..”

I have heard the BoM on TV news saying in effect, “September 2010 rain was an anomaly – we are really still in a dry spell and headed for dryer times”.

That seems to be the drift of their recent “Special Climate Statement 22” – I am suspicious of their Fig 3 in SCS22 and would like to see data back to pre 1900.

Time will tell if the BoM is right to say – “extreme dry years” lie ahead – but IMHO some sections of the BoM are stunningly incompetent and only mass sackings and a re-focus on their observing network would make the BoM relevant to Australian needs.

Every month the Australian BoM published a three month “Outlook” (prediction based on models) for rainfall and temperatures.

The Outlook press releases are often picked up by the media who quote them with reverence as though “written on tablets of stone”. I am only aware of one journalist who has had the temerity to draw attention to Outlook shortcomings – that is Andrew Bolt.

I have been critical of the hopeless inaccuracy of their results for years when compared to real world anomalies. I tend to comment more on failed rainfall Outlooks but this winter the temperature Outlooks were pathetic.

For a start – the entire Outlook map areas are predicted to be far too hot. This has been a common fault in BoM temperature Oulooks for a long time – look for yourself. What are these people smoking ?

• Maxtemp panels: The Outlook is for daytime temperatures to be higher than average across all Australia and yet the actual weather turned out to be cooler than average over much of the continent.
• Mintemp panels: Not quite as bad as maxtemp – but still overall far too warm – did not predict any green areas. They could not even get the overall shape right – the Outlook has east and west hot areas separated by a N/S axis. The weather was actually warmer in north – cooler in south – separate by an E/W axis.

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My main gripes about the mostly failing BoM Outlooks are;

• the BoM is advising Govt that future temperatures multi decades ahead will be warmer in line with the IPCC predictions, which Govt takes on board to justify their “great big new tax” carbon reduction policy – yet the BoM fails to have any predictive skill 90 DAYS ahead !!!
• the Dept churning out these defective Outlooks is simply a waste of our taxes, so I say fire the lot of them.