Here we go again – another month and the BoM Outlooks seem to be getting worse – if that is possible.

Starting with rain – how do they get SW WA so EXACTLY WRONG ??

They have a win with the predicted wet in SE Qld-NE NSW – I will not quibble over the tiny green patch near Glen Innes which really should be in darker blue.

The predicted dry in Victoria & Tasmania turned out wet or average.

The predicted dry in Nth Qld turned out really wet.

Vast areas of the continent predicted to be so dry or average turned out REALLY REALLY WET. All in all – a waste of taxpayers money.

Maximum temperatures were correctly predicted in that same SE Qld-NE NSW zone where the rain Outlook had a win.

The West WA warmth was not predicted – a few points for the little win around Broome – then the predicted warmth in SA-Vic-Tas turned out to be non-existent – like the huge predicted hot patch across north Australia. Large areas of the continent centre were predicted average and warm but turned out anomalously cool to varying degrees – (added 4th Dec) – I would award a few points for the E-W trough shape in the Outlook which is partly copied by the two cool patches. IMHO – overall a pretty miserable and useless failure.

The Outlook for minimum temperatures (nights) suggest there must be a serious lack of reality in the BoM – how could you go with a model predicting such a hot result ? – in the face of months of failures. I think AGW has got to their collective judgment. Did nobody raise a hand to say that the real Australia was unlikely to have this extent and degree of hot nights ?

The wins in WA, SE Qld-E NSW, Top End and far nth Qld are outweighed by the negatives over the remaining large areas. I like the way the largest area with a 75% prediction to be above average – turned out to approximate the largest area of cool anomaly. (added 4th Dec) – note how in the minimum Outlook the contours have a broadly domed shape with the red hot peaks in the NT and Nth WA – while the actual weather results are exactly opposite with the major cool area representing a “topographic low” in the contouring. Another example of the BoM being EXACTLY wrong.

Can I remind readers of the peer reviewed paper from 2005;
“Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005
AL Vizard, GA Anderson and DJ Buckley”

Then there is a 2008 paper looking at correlations with SOI

Yes – you have to pinch yourself but the shameless BoM did say this.

In 2009 there was an “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” (long term = 1 to 3 months) – by the Australian Parliament House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation. If you download the full pdf report – you will find on pdf page 35 of 120
2.46

BoM stated that existing seasonal forecasts for Australia appear to have reached their peak level of performance, and may even be declining in skill as the climate changes.

Taking another look through the Nov 2009 ISI Committee report “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” – I doubt that any good can come from this committee “Inquiry”.

I can now see that this process has come from within the Govt – through Senator the Hon Kim Carr, the Australian Government Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research – where of course the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) resides.

I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this is code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.

IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was always just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing empire building.

Just in case anybody thinks temperature Outlooks are reliable – take a look at these disparate results for the last three months period. Also note that the BoM seems to have the overall calibration of their models wrong – the Outlooks are overall far too warm – which has been an error for years now. To scan through my BoM articles.
First maximum or daytime temperatures – huge areas of Australia turned out way cooler than normal – a fact which the BoM models utterly failed to predict.

If you live in city where the home office of that brand is located, they will most likely be paying for it out of your own home. generic vs viagra Causes of Impotence Male impotence affects more than 30 million in order cheap levitra the U.S. alone. Consequently, erectile dysfunction outcome from several different mechanisms. bulk generic viagra Bayesian tadalafil super active filtering analyzes single words and computes a score for each mail message. Minimum or night time temperatures – predicted to be even hotter relative to norms compared to daytime – yet once again huge areas of Australia turned out way cooler than normal – a fact which the BoM models utterly failed to predict.

But what would you expect from an organization pushing the notion of man caused global warming. The Govt. must tell the BoM to stop wasting our taxes to produce this useless rubbish.