With solar activity currently in the grey zone near the end of cycle 23 and full aggreement not yet in as to if we have started on 24, it is interesting that there are strongly contrasting views as to how strong the next 11 year cycle will be. Here are two views from either end of the spectrum.
A team at UCAR comes down firmly on the side of a long hot cycle
while the Cliverd et al paper,
predicts the quietest sun for circa a century
See the Cliverd et al Figure 2.
The corollary of the Cliverd et al prediction is of course a period of cooler global temperatures.
And there is the NASA forecast from David Hathaway earlier this year :
science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
This paper is also important in predicting future solar activity trends:
Title Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic Fields and Temperatures
Author(s) M. J. Penn and W. Livingston
Identifiers The Astrophysical Journal, volume 649, part 2 (2006),
pages L45-L48
DOI: 10.1086/508345
Bibcode: 2006ApJ…649L..45P
Abstract We have observed high-resolution intensity spectra near the Fe i 1564.8 nm line at a single umbral point corresponding to the darkest position in over 900 sunspots from 1998 through 2005. From these data we
determine that the maximum sunspot magnetic fields have been decreasing at about 52 G yr-1. The same data set shows a concurrent increase in the normalized umbral intensity from 0.60 to 0.75 (corresponding to a blackbody temperature rise from 5137 to 5719 K) and a decrease of more than 50% in the molecular OH line strength. The magnetic field and intensity changes observed over time in the sunspot umbrae from different spots behave in the same way as the magnetic field and intensity changes observed spatially across single sunspots.
From
www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?id=doi:10.1086/508345&erFrom=-1839594171426557367Guest
If the trend of decreasing magnetic field intensity continues, then sunspots will disappear in 2015.
If the sunspots disappear by 2012 that could mean the end of GW scare.However there is theory that relates the overall sunspot activity with the earth’s reducing magnetic field and in the process explains why the suns activity doesn’t directly affect global temperature.
Plasma is ejected from sunspots and is trapped in the Van Allen belt.As the sun’s activity increases the concentration of plasma in this belt is increased.The increasing plasma in the belt attracts the lines of force of of the earth’s magnetic field making it weaker.
link
Of course any increase in the plasma concentration of the Van Allen belt would reduce the concentration of cosmic rays falling on the earth , this could reduce cloud formation and lead to Global Warming.
If this theory is correct any cooling due to reduced sunspot activity could be delayed some.
The originator of this theory is an retired chemist who is an amateur astronomer and who has no facilities to test it and would be pleased if it could be investigated.
The links between solar cycles and solar magnetic field intensity in relation to global temperature seem to be pretty well established.
Why then is most of the population of the planet fixated with the view that humans control the global climaye and that we are wrecking it?
Surely in this age education should be the basis for such important determinations.
To put the whole Climate Change issue into perspective vis-a-vis the Peak Oil Crisis, everyone needs to ask themselves, their associates, all sitting elected officials and those seeking office, especially the office of President of the United States, “What is more threatening in both the long and short terms, a beneficial 1 degree F rise in average world temperatures over the past 100 years, or a 1 percent decline in world oil production over the last 100 weeks – with steepening declines forecast? Can our economy better deal with declining fuel inventories in an environment of persistent warming, or in an environment of declining average temperatures over the next several decades, which is the most likely climate change scenario forecast by the highly reliable solar inertial motion (SIM) model?” The progress of solar cycle #24 provides manifest proof for their answers.