I blogged a month ago “Voice campaign polls tightening says ABC”
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=7153
and has that ever been borne out yeeha.
Since then National polls have showed gains by those intending to vote NO and recently even NSW polls have indicated a majority for NO.
All this has raised the possibility that the referendums could fail which might contribute to Albo being a one term PM.
New WA Gov. laws around intrusion of Indigenous rights onto your “freehold land” have increasingly raised landholder concerns in that State in recent months since the retirement of the popular Premier McGowan. And of course all Australians should assume that their State or Territory Govs. have similar impositions on freehold property being planned deep in their GreenLeft bureaucracies.
In the last few days polls in WA have indicated an earthquake in voting intentions to the extent that the election of a new LNP State Gov is indicated if an election were held.
Poll shows Libby Mettam’s Liberals hold 54-46 two-party preferred lead over Labor with Roger Cook as Premier 23Jul23
thewest.com.au/news/wa/poll-shows-libby-mettams-liberals-hold-54-46-two-party-preferred-lead-over-labor-with-roger-cook-as-premier-c-11360597
Quote [The WA Liberals would win an election held today, according to remarkable new polling that reveals dramatic upheaval in the State’s political landscape.
Mark McGowan’s shock departure, coupled with deeply unpopular Aboriginal heritage laws — which the government has battled to explain — appear to have critically damaged Labor’s prospects in the two short months since Roger Cook took over as Premier.]
It is a long while yet to the referendum vote and if polling continues to indicate a loss for the Yes Vote then I suppose Albo could call off the referendum and just legislate for a Voice; which I recall he has previously threatened to do. I also expect the AEC to act very biassed in favour of a Yes Vote plus the upcoming Govt legislation on disinformation and misinformation has great potential to be used to attack the No Voters side.
Looking further ahead to the 2025 Federal Election the next two summers are a danger time in terms of power price spikes caused by weather and outages that could pressure Govt. energy policy. All factors that could work against Labor in 2025.
>” … I also expect the AEC to act very biassed in favour of a Yes Vote”< [part quote from Warwick's article]
Yes, we all remember the 2013 WA Senate vote count trickie. A large vote swag that had already been counted inexplicably went missing on recount. The AEC were completely at a loss, so they told us, so they did.
The newly-elected Abbott Govt appeared to have had de-facto Senate control but suddenly and mysteriously paper ballots just disappeared before recount. Not even our AFP, so upright and honest are they, could track the supposedly infallible chain of AEC ownership. A new WA Senate election just had to be held only 3 months after the original result was known. A chance, mayhaps, to right an unfortunate earlier result.
Yes, I fear a "botched" count may well be on the horizon.
Let the referendum slide and go for a double dissolution is, I have thought for some time, the best (perhaps only) way for Benito Albanese to gain extra time at the Lodge. And now, since the Liberals have, apparently, decided that the censorship legislation is to their taste also, we can dismiss them from the equation. It’s very disagreeable but a an anti-Labor government will be a coalition of at least three parties. Not amusing.
Yesterday I tweeted
twitter.com/IPCC_Errs/status/1684752604776312832
What a chance Rockingham voters have today to send the Cook Gov “the Mother of all Messages”
I have just heard that Labor has just made a huge last minute change their “How to Vote Card” shoving the popular local Deputy Mayor Hayley Edwards
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayley_Edwards
down from 3 to 8 out of 9 candidates.
Behind even the Liberal.
You could not make this up. Labor must fear Edwards and I am assuming Labor has been whispered to mate to mate by the AEC about Edwards “prepolls”.
I have a tweet today showing a screen save of a press article from The West Australian
twitter.com/IPCC_Errs/status/1685087194523074560
General comments.
[1] Labor has benefit of the Donkey vote after Marshall drew number 1 position at top of ballot paper said to be worth 1 or 2%.
[2] I also think GreenLeft bias of the WAEC would be worth a percent or 2 to Labor.
[3] Labors numerous union member poll workers and dominance of scrutineer numbers will count for a percent or 2 too.
So all up Labor could start with a near 5% advantage over the other riff-raff.
Ah yes – the AEC and pre-polls.
I’ve preferred to vote pre-poll, simply to avoid being harassed by all those goons as you walk into the poll booths.
But this last NSW election had an external control just outside the door “organising” entry into various lines to roll check. The controller was an AEC official. So what, one may think ? Only that he was doing his best with small talk to figure how you may vote … I pushed him about choosing the line for me to join and he got quite shirty, so he likely guessed I may not be ALP/Green. Only lefties like this level of control, so the AEC fits right in.
I am sure most of us saw the news last month that the AEC lost in Fed Court against Craig Kelly after bullying him over the font size on his posters – where it says “Authorised by xyz”.
Federal Court dismisses AEC civil case against Craig Kelly over political advertising 27Jul23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-27/nsw-court-aec-craig-kelly-poster-font-size/102655332
Fascinating too that Albo is complaining the Greens are helping the Oppsn. defeat his housing legislation in the Senate and blabbing on about a double dissolution early election.
Back in June The AEC boss was whining on – Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers reports rise in social media abuse, misinformation 22Jun23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-22/australian-electoral-commissioner-tom-rogers-social-media-abuse/102507204
I can assure him that most abuse I notice on Twitter is from the GreenLeft.
I am expecting that when the new Govt legislation on disinformation and misinformation is passed it will mostly be used against right of centre commentators.
Warwick
You’re closer to the political ground in WA than I am, at least in most aspects.
This “mooted” withdrawal of the Heritage Act by the State Govt – is it the proximate cause of the 30% anti-ALP swing in Rockingham, do you think ? Or perhaps the backlash against that legislation is mightily disturbing to Elbow and his YES campaign ? (Maybe both).
Remember that 2 weeks ago – The Utting Research poll of 1000 voters shows a resurgence of support for the Liberal party in WA, which now has a 54 per cent to 46 per cent two-party preferred lead over Labor.
7news.com.au/news/wa/poll-shows-wa-labors-popularity-has-crashed-with-libs-surging-c-11366498
Now we have the result of the Rockingham byelection which was not that bad for Labor when you factor in that Hayley Edwards is a Labor person and also the Greens vote was split by the Cannabis party. On the other hand the young Liberal guy is very inexperienced and Libs may have polled higher if they had run a 40-ish woman who was liked in the community.
Then we have the amazing news yesterday that Labor will “axe the heritage laws”. I have not seen media yet where Premier Cook is saying what exactly he will do or even what made him consider “axeing the heritage laws” in the first place. As of this Sunday night – 78th Anniversary of Hiroshima – it is all v obscure around Premier Cook of WA. If I had a view of the future I might guess Cook could be rolled. There are many Labor MP’s who would lose their seats if the Utting Poll proves near correct.
But assuming the heritage stuff is largely repealed for the referendum, then the next WA State election is in March 2024. I am a sceptic and think Labor could bring back Heritage Laws Mark II if they win in March.
>” … Labor could bring back Heritage Laws Mark II if they win in March”<
Yes, my thinking too. I would trust a cornered black snake before politicians (and their nasty bureaucrats).
Similarly, it seems likely to me that if the polls on the Voice referendum continue to come up with NO, Elbow will defer it until his 2nd term (he hopes).
wazz – Remember too another complication in all of the Albo triumphant progress – his tiff with Senate Greens over the Housing Australia Future Fund Bill and his threats re a double dissolution.
All of this consternation regarding the Voice.
Thank goodness we are not experiencing a cost-of-living crisis!!!!!
And on the odd occasion that cost-of-living does rate a mention, everyone conveniently forgets that the single greatest influence is the cost of energy.
IF YOU DON’T HAVE ENERGY, YOU DO NOT HAVE AN ECONOMY.