Interesting that BoM has been calling an end to La Nina for many months now – just check search engines for articles.
As I write – LongPaddock says the 30 day SOI is neutral again after being minus 19 in early June.
Interesting that BoM has been calling an end to La Nina for many months now – just check search engines for articles.
As I write – LongPaddock says the 30 day SOI is neutral again after being minus 19 in early June.
I reckon if they call it monthly for the next 50 years, they will be correct.
The activists have been trying to lumber ENSO as a CO2 phenomenon for many decades now. Try as they might, the best they have so far is that AGW makes ENSO worse – a completely unprovable claim.
BoM(bo) wishes and wishes that the El Nino segment of the ENSO oscillation would re-appear so that “the hottest evah !!!!” meme can be fronted again. This is sneaky enough to be classified as disinformation.
Contrast the different definition from NOAA who say “Warm and cold phases are defined as a minimum of five consecutive 3-month running averages of SST anomalies (ERSST.v5) in the Niño 3.4 region surpassing a threshold of +/- 0.5°C.”
Their chart here shows there has not been one yet. there has been one three month period at 0.5 but not over 0.5. There has been one month over 0.5.
Siliggy just rang me ~530pm 8July to say that there is a nationwide outage of rain gauges where the last readings were ~330pm in the East and 130pm in the west.
I have never noticed this happen before.
If anybody can find a rain gauge still working – please mention with times etc in a comment here – thanks.
Rain-gauges look to be back online after 930am today 9Jul23
Warwick, I have been recording daily SOI since Sept 2015. My intention was to try and predict SOI and ENSO from tides at Darwin but it has been difficult. I tried a linear equation for the running average of 30Day SOI (calculated by the Qld Longpaddock) vs the running average differential of the atmospheric pressures at Tahiti and Darwin. I calculate the slope and the intercept which I hoped would be associated with the long term average monthly pressures at Darwin and Tahiti according to the the Troup formulae. I am getting some result which point to monthly changes. I found some figures which appeared a long way out and may have been errors in measurement at Darwin. I sent a query to the longpaddock. They replied that BOM does the measurement-they out do the calculations, trends and use the 30d SOI figures for forecasting.
One should note the tides at Tahiti change very little as does the atmospheric pressure on the long term. The SOI is basically based on the atmospheric pressures at Darwin where tides changes significantly associated with the moon and position of the Earth around the sun (which can be predicted)
My data shows that the SOI and resulting La Nina finished in March 2023. There is no sign of an El Nino so far. I may poit out that there were strange results (changed sign for slope and intercept) in May 2022 and in Feb 2023 the intercept was double that of the normal over the last 8 years
Finally, while La Nina should be a sign of heavier rain we have had over the last 6 months only 40% of the rain for the first half on average for the last 130 years. We have here on the Sunshine Coast missed the normal summer rains. We are well behind this July
It is worth a look at the “Australia’s Variable Rainfall with Tropical cyclone tracks”
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/
pdf downloadable at Longpaddock. At the bottom they have a chart of the SOI from 1890.