The ABC is running this article today “La Niña is rapidly easing, the BOM says. But the prospect of El Niño has some worried. So what’s next?” Sorry WordPress does not let me put a link in.
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-06/is-el-nino-next-after-la-nina-bom-climate-driver-forecast/101828686
Yet Longpaddock has the 30 day SOI at +19.7 while the 90 day SOI is steady near +14.
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
I realise BoM are looking at more indicators than the SOI. Time will tell.
Here is my screen save of the SOI on 5Jan23 – paste these URL’s into a new TAB if that suits you.
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/SOI-month-5jan23.jpg
It seems to have taken almost a decade for the climate activists, including the ABC, to publicly recognise the existence of ENSO. I suspect this is because the associated floods, droughts, bushfires cannot then be heaped upon sinful use of hydrocarbons. ENSO is not driven by very minor trace atmospheric gas fluctuations.
The (sadly) late geologist Bob Carter was instrumental in gathering hard geological evidence of the ENSO oscillations. He had run drillcore programs of sea bed strata off the Q’ld coast and integrated the logs with those from similar drilling off the Peruvian coast. ENSO has existed as we know it for at least 11,000 years.
30 day SOI still rising – now +21 check it out
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
At what level the SOI for pending flood-type rains ? I had thought about +25 to +30 but this isn’t much my area.
Yes, Warwick. Also, no multiple La Ninas just one extended one. See comments on this tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023/01/07/expert-discusses-la-nina-and-el-nino-cycles-effects-on-australia/
Ianl888 when the monthly (or thirty average) is above 10 then there is a tendency for rain and the formation of a La Nina. The heavy rain and possible flooding is when the IPO is in a negative phase. You can see that in the posters on Australian rainfall series. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/ I like the one with the tropical cyclone tracks as this is additional information. The posters have a new definition for a La Nina year of the 6 months period between Nov and March greater than +6. However check the SOI and IPO for years with flooding such as mid2010-mid2012