Nothing here goes close to meeting the pub test. No argument with the Feds disaster relief and National emergency declaration but people have to accept that they chose to live in one of the most flood prone areas in the wide brown land.
I note pollies(Littleproud was one) are throwing around “unprecedented” and caving to the GreenLeft by accepting that current floods are due to “climate change”.
I would not accept the “unprecedented” claim until we had a report by independent meteorologists & hydrologists assessing all rainfall and river data back 140 or more years.
[1] The report should contain maps and tables of rainfall stations for every decade so the increase in stations is obvious.
Station numbers would have increased in recent decades making it more likely to register high daily readings.
[2] The report should show by maps and analysis of historic landuse data the increase in areas cleared for agriculture over 140 years. Aerial photos mostly post WWII will allow more accurate assessment of land clearing in the last 70 years. Satellite imagery should assist in recent decades. It is well known that rainfall on forested land does not runoff as quickly as on cleared grassed farm land so flood peaks tend to be lower.
[3] The report should show by maps and analysis of historic urban data the increase in urban areas and population over a hundred years because rain on urban paved areas would runoff and contribute to flooding quicker than on farmed or bush areas.
[4] There should be a look-back analysis at post WWII State Govt and council planning changes relevant to building houses and shops/commercial buildings, in flood prone areas and an assessment of levees at Lismore.
The HISTORY OF LISMORE FLOOD EVENTS 1870-2017 is from Lismore City Council Large Chart
Geomorphology of flood plains in northern NSW points to higher flood levels over the Holocene. Talk of unprecedented flooding is ridiculous while we focus on 150 years of records and ignore what the geology tells us.
Thanks for bringing up the Holocene – there is also evidence that several thousand years ago sea levels were a coupla m’s above current levels.
Below added 25Aug22
This article from The Age. Reports 775mm in 24hrs on 28Feb2022 at Dunoon just 15km north of Lismore and connected to Lismore by a direct river.
Quote from “The Age”- Meanwhile, a rain gauge to the north of Lismore recorded the second-highest daily rainfall total on record in NSW. Dunoon (BoM site 58021), a small village located roughly 20 kilometres north of Lismore, registered 775mm of rain during the 24 hours to 9am on Monday, Weatherzone said, adding that the observation would need to be quality controlled by the Bureau of Meteorology before it could be confirmed.
I see the BoM only has Dunoon # 58021 up to 1951 – so maybe the raindrops last Feb were the wrong shape.
Lismore Airport AWS BoM station # 58214 has zero data this year for March, April, May, Jun, and in July from the 1st to 22nd incl all zero readings too. (thats how important rain data is in the wide brown land) See screen save for Lismore Airport AWS BoM station # 58214
Some time ago I was involved in a discussion involving both CSIRO geoscientists and CSIRO “climate” people. Basically the discussion was concerned with allocation of CSIRO research facilities to some minor funding that I had access to.
The geo’s raised the issue of geological evidence impacting on the multi-disciplinary studies of climate evolution, obviously including the Holocene. The response from the “climate” people was that geological evidence was not appropriate. The obvious follow-up question of “Why ?” simply remained unanswered.
And Warwick is correct, of course. There are palaeo-beach remnants just inland of the northern NSW coastline zircon-dated to the Holocene – known as the highstand of the Holocene.
Perth coastal plain is a broader example of topography influenced by Holocene elevated sea levels.
Analysis of historic 90th, 95th and 99th percentile extreme daily rainfall frequency across the affected NSW/Queensland flood zone shows a decline in recent decades, meaning the floods weren’t due to climate change.
Details at “What Australian voters didn’t know : less extreme rainfall causing floods” : www.waclimate.net/rainfall-insurance/index.html
Thanks for bring this up Chris.
I had not seen the BoM report – cunningly released in the week after the election.
Ponced up by cherry-picking.
I will ref to this on latest blog – did you see Perth region has several stations that have topped the August mean rain already? Thats by 10th August