The Canterbury region has just been flooded with a “one-in-100-year event” – yet the NIWA Outlook was for “below average rain”.
Should be mass sackings over the ditch. I see MetService has a message –[Cumulative Rainfall Map Unavailable – Unfortunately the cumulative rainfall maps have not captured the recent heavy rainfall accurately and have been disabled while we investigate. The maps will be restored once resolved.]
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I don’t question your assessment of the BoM over the NIWA and metService, but the BoM failed to see this coming:
Revised weather messaging aims to prevent repeat of 2019 mass cattle deaths in Qld monsoon
“But the 2019 monsoon was one of the biggest and most unusual on record and if the cattle survived the raging torrents, they died from a cold snap that coincided with the rain.”
www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-02/revised-weather-messaging-aims-to-prevent-mass-cattle-deaths/11917146
Not the best science to base economic/energy decisions on.
I have often been critical of BoM Outlooks. I am also critical of the BoM ACORN temperature station series adjustments which have the effect of cooling the past. There are aspects of BoM rain data I think need exposing too – but if you have an interest to know where rain is falling – in real time – and then in various timescales out to a Century – then the BoM www pages do a pretty good job. IMHO light years better than MetService.
Re the ABC article you linked to. I find it fascinating how the BoM warned us in Sep 2019 about the “sudden stratospheric warming” event over Antarctic and how it could worsen drought in NSW and Southern Qld. I have the story in a recent blog here –
ScoMo’s NRRA birthed in memory lapse –
Remember previous Christchurch flooding from early March 2014 also said to be a “once in a 100 years event”
‘Once-in-a-century’ storm finally eases
www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=11214174