30th Jan – Feb Outlook maps choose the rainfall or max t. to see major errors. Min t is passable. Compare to – February max t anomalies – and – February monthly rainfall percentages.
30th Jan – Feb Outlook maps choose the rainfall or max t. to see major errors. Min t is passable. Compare to – February max t anomalies – and – February monthly rainfall percentages.
This ABC article – BOM says last summer was the second-hottest on record, but rain is on the forecast –
is misleading in so many ways.
In the 1st para – could have mentioned the February East Coast rain/floods – link below
Above first map they say [Rainfall was below average for the nation as a whole but was highly variable in terms of location and date.]
The Feb rain percentages show many areas had useful rain – link below.. And rainfall is NORMALLY “highly variable in terms of location and date”
Then under that they say [The east coast’s big wet did thankfully dampen the fires, but it was not enough to turn around the nation’s water stores.]
Dampen?? The floods were mainly on the East Coast so by definition they could not “turn around the nation’s water stores”
Under the first map the ABC says [The heavy rain and flooding did see Sydney’s water storages skyrocket mid January]
Wrong careless ABC – Sydney dams got some refill in FEBRUARY not January.
ABC also manage to conceal that in February the vast majority of the Australian population incl. all State capitals and across the SE experienced cooler than average or near average days.
Time for the BoM to reconsider what they are doing with these forecasts.
Forecasting is more important for rainfall than temperature. Outside the tropics, temperature is going to be hot in summer and cool in winter no matter what. But rainfall varies enormously and affects agricultural and other activities.
Looking just at the BoM’s rainfall forecast for February, without even considering the outcome, you already have to ask why they bother. Hardly anywhere are the chances of exceeding median rainfall higher than 70% or lower than 30%. As a result, over roughly 98% of the continent, their forecast is basically for median rain. What use is that? You might as well use their map of “average conditions” as the forecast.
If you then look at the outcome, the picture is even worse. As it turned out, around a quarter of the country got more than double average rain (which would be more than double median rain). And in virtually none of these areas did the BoM estimate even a 60% chance of exceeding the median. Even in areas of WA, SA, QLD and NSW that had more than 4 times their average rain, the chance of beating the median had generally been assessed as under 60%, and in some cases under 45%.
The forecasts are simply useless, and should be suspended until the BoM can massively improve their reliability.
Agree with David B.
BoM has been consistently forecasting storms for Brisbane (almost daily) for the past four weeks. One storm so far.
Also the ex cyclone which BoM said was going to saturate SE Australia is currently sitting in the NT at 1001 and winds howling at 26kph – and the Tanami is not real flash with providing atmospheric moisture.
Have you checked out what this latest rain is doing to the BoM rain outlook for March?
Consecutive destruction.
Good rain in Brisbane today.
So I guess 1 day in 33 aint bad????? for our BoM forecasters.