Days after publishing their “climate Outlook” NIWA’s work is demolished by a damaging biblical deluge NIWA was too incompetent to see coming. Hilarious – yet these taxpayer funded leech Climate orgs have any status left? 
MetService for NZ weather
To be fair to NIWA they do not produce weather forecasts of specific events in their seasonal climate outlooks. Each of these outlooks cover three months in quite general terms.
Further. these outlooks are based in terms of “probability forecasts” i.e, they include a numerical expression of uncertainty in the quantity or the event being forecast. Consequently these seasonal (three month) outlooks never pretend to predict a specific event such as the Southland floods. That is the job of the Met Service.
That said I am very aware that I do not fully understand the probability forecasts such as NIWA presents. And I am damn sure the media don’t. We do see media reports for various regions in the country that state NIWA expectation that they will be “wetter than usual” or “hotter than usual” in the ensuing month(s).
That is a bad translation of what NIWA is saying. For starters I am not sure what “usual” means. Is it the same as “normal” which the Met Service delights in? If so, are we not moving from interpreting local weather in terms of climate (as defined by the meteorologists among us)?
Secondly to take an example. NIWA’s probability outlooks for temperatures in coastal Canterbury in February reads: Above average 40%; Near average 45%; Below average 15%. Can I then take it that the chances of temperatures in coastal Canterbury not being above average is 60%?
If that is indeed the case, I do wonder about the value of probability forecasting to the average Jill or Joe Blow. Nevertheless probability forecasting is done widely across the globe – and it has damn all to do with specific weather events.
There are lots of excuses for toss brickbats at NIWA but in doing so let’s stick to good scientific ones.
OT According to US Navy JTWC Tropical Warnings a Cyclone is headed for New Caledonia, then continuing on as far south as latitude 26S (south end of Fraser Island). Not unheard of but a little unusual to see one that far south. It seems not much puff when it gets there though.
Yes Bob – I noticed the obvious shape on a satellite image used on weekend ABC TV news. I thought it near enough for the BoM to mention. It is on this BoM satellite image series heading for Qld.
Not included in BoM warnings yet that I could see. The Windy forecasts track has it heading south west into the Tasman reaching between Eden and Southern NZ next Monday.
It might skim the Oz coast on the way.
We will see what transpires.
Have you noticed the distant western arms of the ex TC Damien now near Kalgoorlie have reached to the Perth coastal plain as shown on rain radar.
I was blogging about the NIWA phony Outlooks 8 years ago.
Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ? 8Jan2012
Surely not possible Wass. I thenk you’re going a bet to far weth thet one!