As 2019 data comes available for BoM, satellites, sun spots, whatever I will post charts as I have time.
First the UAH satellites lower troposphere. My chart for Australia shows 2017 0.72 and 1998 0.709 were hotter years than 2019 0.577.
There is much news that 2019 has been our hottest and dryest year.
Let’s check BoM mean t anomalies first – closest compare with satellites lower troposphere.
All-Oz BoM has 2019 hottest year since 1910. Ditto NSW-ACT. Not so for NT where 2013 just wins. Not so for Qld where several earlier years were hotter. 2013 hotter in SA. Tassie many other years hotter. Vic 3 or 4 other years were hotter. 2019 hottest year in WA.
Now at same BoM site change to the rainfall anomaly and All Oz is dryest and ditto for NSW-ACT. Not so for NT where 1961 was dryer. Not so for Qld where many earlier years were dryer. 2019 dryest in SA. Tassie many other years dryer. Vic up to 10 other years were dryer. Somewhere near 1923-24 was dryer in WA. So we see there is another layer to the BoM claims that needs examining to get a better grip on 2019.
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Looking at the 12 month rainfall anomaly map we see the distribution of drought and the Qld flood areas.
Another comparison – Here is the BoM AWAP map of the mean t anomaly for December 2019.
and here is the UAH satellites global t anomaly map for December 2019 lower troposphere. I have snipped out the Australian area for Dec 2019 and it is v different to BoM. Satellites found the warmest patch of lower troposphere was over the Bight – fascinating.
And BoM SST anomalies for Dec 2019 did not see warmth over the G A Bight – more to ponder.
Enough for now.
Looks like that UAH data also has December 2018 a lot hotter than December 2019.
>”As 2019 data comes available for BoM, satellites, sun spots, whatever I will post charts as I have time.”
Yes please.
Your lower troposphere chart of temps for Australia shows an average anomaly of 0.58C in the 12 months of 2019, which is the 32nd warmest 12 month period since the series began in 1979. The hottest since 1979 was 0.78C in the 12 months from April 2016 to March 2017.
The warmest 12 month average anomaly ending in 2019 was from July 2018 to June 2019 when it peaked at 0.65C. From February 1998 to January 1999, the average anomaly was 0.72C .
Averaged national total rainfall was 277.63mm in 2019, according to BoM data, the lowest since 1900. Second driest was 1902 with 314.46mm. Record low rainfall should be associated with higher temperatures although, compared to surface observations, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between lower troposphere temps and rainfall/cloud cover.
As always, it’ll be interesting to compare with the anomaly of ACORN 2 when the bureau releases its 2019 monthly and annual reports.
Chris Gillham
> “Record low rainfall should be associated with higher temperatures …” [your quote]
Why ? Higher temperatures, especially sea surface temps, increase evaporation and hence precipitation.
Rainfall should be associated with temperatures because rainfall is a proxy for cloud cover.
On days when it rains, there is cloud cover – not always all day and not necessarily the whole sky, but most of the time there is plenty of cloud for most of the day that blocks sunlight and reduces maxima. Often there are clouds the day before and after rainfall is registered, sometimes longer. Other times there is cloud cover but no rain, so rainfall is a proxy that can only provide a minimal estimation of how many days in a month or year were shaded, so to speak.
If record low rainfall is measured, the odds are good that there was a below average number of cloudy days and a consequent increase in the number of warm or hot days – i.e. record low rainfall should be associated with higher temperatures.
The correlation isn’t perfect every year but www.waclimate.net/very-hot-days-seasonal.html provides an example of how hot season rainfall corresponds to the annual number of very hot days above 40C. It’s worth following the links in the top left panel of the linked page for a different perspective on Australia’s history of extreme or very hot days.
BTW … it looks like the ACORN 2 mean temperature anomaly for 2019 is +1.52C, the highest ever and eclipsing the 2013 record of +1.33C (www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/cli_chg/timeseries/tmean/0112/aus/latest.txt).
These ACORN 2 figures are corrupt from an historical perspective but it’s not a coincidence that the driest year on record has been the warmest year on record.
Australia’s hot 2019 has been caused by lack of rainfall, not CO2, although warmists are free to argue that the lack of rainfall is caused by CO2 – even though that doesn’t accord with greenhouse theory or Australia’s increasing rainfall volumes since 1910.
Caveat – Australia’s hot years since the 1990s, from an anomaly perspective, are also caused by the introduction of small screen automatic weather stations with one second readings.
On WUWT Willis E had an article on rainfall in USA. Someone in OZ (claimed to be in SEQld) commented that Oz had a similar trend and claimed very much different rainfall which I have recorded from Official stations near my home also in SEQld (two stations one about 500m away and the other about 5kms I have found to have the same average and standard deviation) I said that by far the lowest rainfall was in 1902 with 519mm, the next lowest was in 1957 with 849mm, followed by 1900 with 1011mm, 1933 with 1040mm and 1979 with 1084mm. 2019 with 1328mm does not even get into my high (>2350mm) and low (<1250mm) ranges.
The BOM chart of anomaly rainfall is meaningless. The anomaly at my place -472 mm (ie average 1800mm). It would make more sense if the chart showed a percentage of the annual rainfall (for 2019 at my place it would be 74% and lowest on record 1902 at 28.8%) By the way the highest rainfall was in 1898 with 3997mm followed by 1893 with 3848mm. I do not trust BOM with anything.
Chris Gillham
Your answer deals only with precipitation corresponding with cloud cover. You must have noted that I listed evaporation as the 1st condition for rain – no precipitation can occur without evaporation.
Consequently, I do not think you have adequately answered my question. Yet another circular frame in climate science – the water cycle.
I also note that drought was recorded as a common feature of weather during what is known as the Little Ice Age.
Chris, I should add this:
“The main climate driver behind the heat has been a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an event where sea surface temperatures are warmer in the western half of the ocean, cooler in the east.
The difference between the two temperatures is currently the strongest in 60 years.
As a result, there has been higher-than-average rainfall and floods in eastern Africa and droughts in south-east Asia and Australia”
Higher temperatures per se do not cause drought. The oscillatory movements in ENSO, IOD and SOI are huge millenial-old factors. See:
acecrc.org.au/news/antarctic-ice-cores-tell-1000-year-australian-drought-story/