Today there was much political beat-up on TV news over a small 190MW QNI upgrade (an interconnector to Qld) costing ~$102Mill. Prime Minister Scott Morrison and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian with other Ministers in attendance talked about “…putting downward pressure on wholesale prices..”. The purest fantasies you will hear. AEMO has a Generation Information page where you can download Excel files setting out State by State installed capacity also showing new projects for a few years ahead. OpenNem has useful generation presentations.
Here is a Table showing changes to generation out to 2023.
On a Sydney scorcher summer afternoon/evening demand can reach 10,800MW
Allowing for projects AEMO indicates will open by 2023
The following installed generating capacities should be available by 2023
When Liddel closes first half of 2022 AEMO says coal will total 8,260MW
AEMO says gas will total 2,530MW
AEMO says hydro will total 2,706MW
AEMO says biomass will total 133MW
other 9MW
QNI interconnector – should manage 1,000MW
AEMO says wind could total 3,023MW
AEMO says solar could total 2,877MW
Comments from the top –
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In recent years gas plants have not been able to run for lack of gas in mains at demand peaks and the NSW Govt has exploration drilling bans – go figure.
Hydro should help meet peak demand.
Interconnectors can play up on hot days too and NSW will be increasingly dependent on the Qld Govt maintaining a surplus of coal or gas generation. Who knows what future Qld Govts might do?
Wind often reduces as hot days turn to hot evenings so no matter how much wind is installed it can not help if the blades are still.
Solar – we all know the sun goes down at end of the day. Batteries on a huge scale could be needed to tap n store solar’s daytime output.
Large industrial users will increasingly be told to shutdown around peak demand.
Any consumers could choose to turn off power at peak demand times, they might be paid to accept that. More of us might opt to save money by say cooking at 9-10pm rather than 6pm.
All sorts of appliances like washing machines/vacuum cleaners could be used at off peak times as hot water is heated now.
I do not know if a majority of NSW voters have chosen this future but the “South Australianisation” of NSW power supplies is on its way – in progress – “coming to a switchboard near you” – now.
Let us remember how retail electricity prices are booming evah higher – Nov 2018 chart thanks to St Vincent de Paul
One sees constant comments on the capability of renewabubbles to run a clean, green power grid for a modern civilised country.
Blakers et al are constantly in our face promoting “pumped hydro” as a saviour for the unpredictable losses of wind power and (not unpredictable) losses of solar at night – yet the locations of the needed dams are kept secret. So typical of Australian B/S.
How will this magical world become ? By reducing demand … a rump country.
What gets me is, it’s so easy to have a reliable grid. Until 20-odd years ago this was never a public issue. Everyone just accepted that electricity was essential and should be provided at the lowest possible cost. In Australia that meant coal, with a bit of gas or hydro for peaking power. All cheap and reliable.
Now electricity has become a political football and even schoolkids think they know how to run the system. Somehow we never hear from electrical engineers who must know that renewables, batteries and other fanciful schemes are unreliable, uneconomic and have a huge impact on landscape and the environment.
Even after the historic blackouts in South Australia, we still have learned nothing. The figures above show the whole eastern seaboard could face similar disasters in just a few years. In fact those figures are likely to get worse as electricity demand increases. The population is still rising 15 per cent per decade, more internet servers will be chewing through the juice, the demand for air conditioning will rise, and where is the power going to come from for all those electric cars that greenies think are so ecologically pure?
Last year a single lightning strike caused simultaneous tripping of both circuits of the QNI interconnector at a time when Queensland was supplying 857 MW to the despatchable generation strapped southern states.
This event went within a bee’s diaphragm of causing a multi-state system black. Bear in mind this happened in spring (August) not in summer, when all it took was a single lightning strike on/near the double circuit QNI tower line. The wild swings in frequency in NSW, Victoria and Queensland were only arrested after the islanding of SA and Tasmania and wide spread automatic load shedding.
When the Victorian, Andrews government forced Hazelwood to close it meant the loss of 1600 MW of reliable generation and when Liddel closes in NSW it will mean another 1600 MW lost. So adding 190MW capacity to what can be supplied out of Queensland, the only mainland state with adequate despatchable capacity, seems to me pretty much a case of rearranging the deck chairs. Let’s not forget too that Queensland’s loony tunes government is also hell-bent on “South Australianising” generation in that state.
A correction to my previous comment. My initial recollections were astray on Tasmania islanding as a result of the August 2018 QNI interconnector trip event.
In fact the BassLink interconnector from Tassie to Victoria, which was exporting power to Victoria at the time, did not trip but actually saw an increase in the power (MW) being exported to Victoria. Some automatic load shedding did occur in Tasmania following the QNI trip.
Morrison and the states’ beat-up of the importance of this interconnector upgrade looks very much like window dressing intended to allow them to go on ignoring the obvious desperate need for additional reliable, despatchable synchronous generation in the southern states.
“How will this magical world become ? By reducing demand … a rump country.”
That’s how.
When I heard that on TV news Prem. Gladys also said that NSW/Comm would upgrade/install re the connections to Victoria and South Australia. No locations were specified. Re ScoMo spruiking of Tasmanian “battery of the Nation” stuff plus the new Marinus Bass St cable. This guy says Basslink has never been a success. Quote re Basslink “It’s been a costly voyage into the unknown.”
tasfintalk.blogspot.com/search/label/Electricity
While checking NSW numbers at OpenNem I saw that in peak demand hot days last Jan on the 16, 17, 18 & 25th coal only provided ~8,300MW while AEMO says the 2019 installed capacity is 10,160MW. I do not know what reason there may have been for the ~20% shortfall – breakdowns? – or is coal being deliberately “part de-commissioned”? Yesterday was an interesting day with the PM/Premier/Minister presser much ado about very little. So it was quirky to see on AEMO & OpenNem that NEM prices blew out over a few hours yesterday evening to ~$300. If anybody knows why – -please tell. Check the various States on OpenNem. For that evening peak price period in NSW OpenNem shows the coal generators mostly contributed ~4,400MW. Now with installed coal capacity of 10,160MW – 4,400MW is under 44% of installed capacity. So it appears NSW coal generation is de-facto substantially “part de-commissioned” all the time. I suppose this is to make room for renewables.
Alan Moran on QoL (quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/10/a-billion-reasons-to-despair/) outlines the deliberate deterioration and destruction of the grid.
Yet over 18 months ago I pointed out the likely trajectory to him, for which he labelled me cynical. Now he seems to have grasped the point.
We are very ill-served by our self-appointed “elite”. From all directions. It will spiral into bloodshed, I do fear.
Your 29th October price blowout has worsened on the 30th with NSW hitting $167 and Qld plus Vic in three figures. Sydney has had four days under 27 so no heatwaves causing price spikes.
The simple question to all those claims about cheap renewables is “why then hasn’t SA got the cheapest electricity in Australia”?
November has seen gales across southern areas of the NEM resulting in large wind generation keeping AEMO spot prices down. But AEMO spot prices for Tasmania have been way highest in the NEM following a trend for years now where Tas prices are relatively high.
Yet our Prime Minister insists on committing to foolish Commonwealth financial support for investing in the Tas/Govt “Battery of the Nation” hydro and pumped hydro enhancements plus the Marinus second Bass St cable. Basslink has been an expensive dog why repeat that failure?
ScoMo should say to Tas/Govt – “before the Commonwealth invests in your proposals – convince me that your power exported north would be low cost”.