12 thoughts on “Drought in MDB worse in the past”

1. I’d like to be able to say thanks for that ‘update’.

   However this chart is too complex for me to understand.

   The dates can hardly be seen on either view. The significance of the ups & downs of graphed line is not explained.

   And it’s all to do with something called ‘anomalies’.

   If there is evidence that the Federation drought was worse than the current one, please present it in a way which can be understood.

   Not in this pseudo scientific ‘charty’ way which comes straight out of confusing clever sciency rule book.

2. Listening to recent news and commentary from the drought front it points to many people harbouring unrealistic expectations of farming. It seems a serious disconnect that rural property values are so buoyant.
   www.farmonline.com.au/story/6225031/farmland-investing-defies-drought-values-jump-107pc/
   I think Goverments and councils should do more to make farmers aware of regions and districts rain histories.

3. Agree the small chart was not showing well on the width available so scrapped that. I changed the colour scheme on the large chart which I think reveals the years clearer. No trouble to email the data as a csv file if anybody wants it.

4. OT but I keep an eye on Sea surface temperatures here i1.wp.com/www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

   There appears to have been significant anomalous cooling in the equatorial region and in the southern hemisphere over the last month or two. “La nina and positive IOD”? Have any of you more meteorologically savvy commenters noticed this, and can possibly comment.

5. Interesting map TedM – I check SOI whenever I think of it @ the very useful Qld Gov Long Paddock site or the BoM pages. As you know our last El Nino was for ~12 months say 1May2015-30Apr2016 which was only associated with minor drought areas. Since then there was a significant Oz rain event in Sep2016 which I recall caused flooding in NSW. Post Sep2016 the SOI index has mainly oscilated between +10 & -10 and is currently near 0 (neutral) despite “the drought”. So this is something of an enigma that we are gripped by “worst drought ever” – yet the SOI shows little sign of El Nino conditions.
   Re your SST map – I agree it is fascinating that signs right now are not pointing towards an El Nino. BoM also has SST maps of our region. BoM also talk up the importance of the IOD.

6. wazz – Thanks to Lance for this long 8May1846 letter to the Editor of the Sydney morning Herald by the keenly observant Louis Piesse.
   On the subject of 1840’s droughts affecting the Darling River.

   METEOROLOGY.
   To the Editors of the Sydney Morning Herald.
   Gentlemen, In your paper of Friday last, appeared an article headed “Meteorology,” by W.B.C., and though I make no pretensions to add anything to the writer’s knowledge of Meteorology, or Australian climatology, yet
   as he has requested contributions, I feel much pleasure in furnishing any information that will add another link in the chain from which “facts” may be deduced; but the only part of his communication to which I can allude is the conclusion of his postscript, in which he says— “Sturt’s desert, Leichhardt’s experience of
   little or no rain, even in the tropics, Sir T. L. Mitchell’s sufferings from want of water on the Bogan, and the state of the colony generally, prove this to have been a year of drought parallel with the season of 1826–7, and certainly adding another link to the chain of facts for establishing an atmospheric cycle of nineteen years.”

   Now the only use I shall make of this quotation is to furnish further evidence of its truth, by attempting to show that the drought prevailed over a large extent of country, a great proportion of which is at present very little known.

   In August and October I was on the lower part of the Darling, that is from its junction with the Murray up to Laidley’s Ponds. Now as the Darling runs through many hundred miles of country from the back of Moreton
   Bay, (and its sources are supposed by the enterprising Leichhardt to extend much further north, as he “came on westerly waters again in lat. 25°19 and 25°13, which in all probability go to the westward and southward and join the Condamine, or belong to the great basin of the Darling,”) to its junction with the Murray; and as the Darling receives the drainage of such a large extent of country, the Bogan, Castlereagh, Macquarie, Nammoy,Gwydir, being known tributaries, and other streams at present unknown, the state of the floods in the river became a pretty good criterion as to the amount of rain on and adjacent to the tributaries and the country at
   the sources of the river.

   On my arriving at the Darling (September, 1844,) it was running a clear smooth stream, but in the shallows I walked across it in many places about knee deep. On September 29th, the floods commenced in one night it rose
   six feet, and in three or four days it was a rapid stream, inundating its banks and sweeping old gum-trees of eight or nine feet in circumference and numerous large logs before it. In August, 1845, I ran the river down from Laidley’s Ponds to the Murray. It was then again a clear smooth stream, but just running, and with a less volume of water than when I first saw it in September, 1844. In November, 1845, I was again on the river, running it up, and anticipating the flood might have commenced about the same time as it did in 1844, was preparing for a troublesome journey through the dense scrubs adjacent to the river, when on arriving at its banks, lo! the bed of the river was dry. I continued on the river, running it up and down between Laidley’s Ponds and the Murray during November and December, 1845, and part of January, 1846, and the river remained in the same state, being nothing but a chain of ponds, the bed being dry in many places for half a mile. A drought in that part of New South Wales, in the upper part of the Darling and the tributaries thereof, naturally suggested itself; but it did not follow as a matter of course, for there might have been sufficient
   rain to have renewed the grasses for the purposes of pasturage, or even for the agriculturist to carry on operations without the surplus waters flowing so far down as Laidley’s Ponds: for it must take a large volume of water even to fill up a river so many hundred miles in length, and of the width and depth of bed as the Darling. It may, however, be reasonably supposed that but a small quantity of rain had fallen, and as no flood had commenced at so late a period as January, 1846, that none would that season take place.

   Now let us turn to Captain Sturt. On his outward journey (and when in lat. 31°50, and long. 141°35) rain fell in November, 1844. From that period, with the exception of an insignificant shower in January, and another
   in May, no rain fell till July, 1845. It was the rain on July 12th and 13th that enabled him to prosecute his journey; and from that period till his return to the Darling on December 19th, 1845, only four or five flying showers occurred, so that he may be said to have been in the interim in a season of drought that is from November, 1844, to December, 1845.

   The junction of the Darling with the Murray is in lat. 34 S., and long. 142 E.; and I take this to be a good position for determining that there was a drought over a large extent of country in 1845, which of course would be felt during the present year, and until the ordinary rainy season. If a line is drawn from the above mentioned position to lat. 25°19, and long. 149, where Dr. Leichhardt “came on westerly waters again, which in all probability belong to the great basin of the Darling,” and then from the same position to Captain Sturt’s farthest point in lat. 21°30, and long. 138, it will represent two sides of a triangle, which may be completed by drawing a line from the positions in longitude, namely, from 138 to 149; in which I am persuaded a severe drought prevailed. That it did prevail, and that it extended farther north, and even to the west and east of this triangle, will, in addition to what has been stated, appear clearer from the following observations.

   The Darling had ceased to run, and in many places its bed was dry, at a season when it is generally flooded. Dr. Leichhardt (in January, 1845), found “the bed of the Comet River entirely dry, from latitude 24°25, to
   latitude 23°41, late thunderstorms assisting us to pass over this thirsty country.” Captain
   Sturt experienced a drought in the country he was travelling in. So small in amount was the rain that had fallen in July, 1845, and so absorbent the soil, that in a few weeks we find him driven back for want of water, and his horses dying from exhaustion. In a journey from lat. 29°30, en route by the Darling to the Mur-
   ray, in the latter part of July and the month of August, I experienced only three or four insignificant flying showers, and on one occasion in the vicinity of Laidley’s Ponds travelled forty three miles without obtaining surface water. Captain Sturt discovered a large creek in about lat. 27°40, which ran nearly east and west, as
   far as he saw it in a journey of one hundred and sixty miles, and as he had passed an arid country to the westward of this creek, it may be assumed that very little rain had fallen in this parallel of latitude. The creek, though with a large deep bed, and fine reaches of water, was like the Darling, (to which in its
   appearance and general character it was often compared,) stationary; so that wherever its sources are, or wherever it may terminate, and the more distant they are supposed to be, the better it proves this point.
   Captain Sturt, in his retreat from the desert, in November and December, 1845, had to take journeys of forty, seventy, and, on one occasion, of one hundred and five miles before he could obtain surface water, and then only in such small quantities that, in a country of such aridity and high temperature, and consequent rapid evaporation, that even a few days later would, so far as human knowledge can forsee, have rendered his retreat impracticable. That the drought extended to the eastward of the general course of the Darling, the state
   of the tributaries, the general condition of this province, would prove; but it would not be of any great extent, as we should soon come within the influence of the known coast and other mountain ranges. The greatest extent of drought prevailed to the northward and westward of Sturt’s track, as was evidenced by the hot winds, but to what extent I have not data to determine. It is sufficient for me if these observations enable your intelligent correspondent to extend his views, and to be able to blend it with the information he already possesses.

   As soon as the lower part of the Darling is located on, and which it may be anticipated will shortly be the case, we shall be able to obtain local information respecting the floods. In the absence of any better, I may state that in December, 1839, some friends of mine crossed the bed of the Darling dry, by following it up about thirty miles from its junction with the Murray.

   It may be worthy of remark, had the flood in the Murray, in 1845, been considered an early and rather a high flood, as it did not in that year receive any addition to its waters from the flood of the Darling, that a full ordinary amount of rain had fallen in the country adjacent to the sources and ordinary tributaries of the Murray.

   In conclusion, I will add a few hints for the benefit of parties travelling overland by way of the Murrumbidgee and the Murray. The floods in the Murray below the junction of the Darling commence generally in August, and the river continues rising till the end of November, (and in some years till December) at which time it has reached its maximum. The flood in the Darling is evidently irregular. It is of course influenced by the rains in its distant sources and tributaries, but I consider in general, that it commences in September or October, and reaches its maximum height in November or December. This river is the greatest obstacle in the
   way of an overland party, in the season of the flood. I have stood on the banks of this river with the bed thirty feet below me, and yet the flood marks of the adjacent gum trees were out of my reach. In fact, numerous indications appear of extensive inundations, during which it would be dangerous to attempt to pass the river. All journeys with stock should therefore, be commenced so as to avoid crossing the Darling, or passing down the Murray, during the season of the flood: for independent of the inconvenience of having to head round so many back water lagoons, parties are driven into the adjacent dense scrubs, and compelled to keep the sand hills or cliffs, which would inevitably lead to much loss of time and stock. The backwaters are a more serious inconvenience than may at first sight appear, for besides inundating the flats and rendering them impassable, some of the lagoons are complete labyrinths, and extend several miles from the river. In November, 1845, the backwater of the Murray had flowed up the lower branch of the Darling 22 miles; and in the Darling itself, the backwater had flowed up to 30 miles, and was still rising, so that the river appeared as if it was running up.
   I am, Gentlemen, Your obedient servant,
   LOUIS PIESSE.
   358, George Street, May 6, 1846.

7. Warwick, the 1880-1886 low rainfall period, sometimes termed the ‘1880-1886 Drought’, shows up at a number of stations with pre-1900 records, of which I have come across (in no particular order): Booligal (075069), Mudgee (062021), Wentworth (047053), Somerton (055003), Gulgong (062013), Gunnedah (055053), Albany (009500).
   Also, there is a worrying drop off in SW-WA rainfall currently, however, it appears no worse than the 1890s-1903 period (Federation Drought)- eg, your ‘Annual Rainfall of the Perth Water Supply Area’ graph- 1890-2005 (modified from BoM, 2006), and records from: Albany , Katanning & Mt. Barker.
   Although the rainfall patterns may be different in the west (often of opposite polarity with the east), the WWII Drought appears to have been continent-wide.

8. Thanks John – give me a day or so I will check for all stations I have assembled rain histories for – those that extend back to early 1880’s and add to your list. I must have dozens in xls.

9. Great digging, Wazz and Lance.

   The chart makes it perfectly clear that the current MDB drought is nothing special. Both monthly and 12-monthly rainfall totals are low, but well short of record lows. In fact, no month in the last 15 years was more than 40 per cent below normal, whereas this happened 10 times in the previous 103 years. The lowest recent 12-month anomaly is about 18 per cent below normal, whereas at least 3 previous droughts have seen rainfall drop more than 20 per cent below normal.

   Moreover, if we are looking at long-term climate change, a more prominent feature is what looks like a record excess of rain in the basin from 2010 to 2012.

   The historical account is also very revealing. Far from dry rivers being a rare event, they were par for the course in the days before large dams. So were huge floods when it rained. The current fads for maintaining stream flow, but not building dams, are both destructive and self-contradictory.

10. All these look to have drought in early 1880’s – the year is my first data – Moree 1880, Narrabri 1871, Armidale 1872, Kempsey 1882, Warrnambool 1880, Stanthorpe 1873, Walcha 1880, Coonabarabran 1880, Cobar 1882 no chart yet, Bungonia 1884, Gunnedah 1878 no chart yet, Albany 1877 no chart yet, Cloncurry 1884 & 84-85 looked low but need a few more years, Alice Springs 1874, Mildura 1868.

11. Thanks to Lance for two more historic newspaper articles.

    Another “letter to the editor” – this time out of Jan 1886 by H.C. Russell Astronomer and Meteorologist at the Sydney Observatory. He summarizes information about MDB floods and droughts sent in to him covering the period from 1839.

    From July 1886 an article summarizing observations of MDB weather and climate from the explorations of Sturt and commences – “The severest drought on record in Australia
    occurred in the year 1826-7 -8.

12. Some news : I’ve established a new Facebook group. It’s called “BOM Weather Watch”

    it of for Australians all over Australia interested in discussing the BOM and how it often gets things wrong.

    Here is the link : www.facebook.com/groups/2688077244565417/

    Anybody can see it as the group is public. But if anyone wants to post or comment they need to be a member.