Polls and pundits got it wrong amazing. No GreenLabor annointing yet.
Has Antony Green called the election?
From Perth: Federal Election 2019 Live
Earlier blog – Election is for the least stupid Govt.
Polls and pundits got it wrong amazing. No GreenLabor annointing yet.
Has Antony Green called the election?
From Perth: Federal Election 2019 Live
Earlier blog – Election is for the least stupid Govt.
Went to bed early with LNP at about 68 seats and Labor about 60 and positive early signs for Govt in WA. Waking up too early put woolies on and check news sheesh PM Morrison is claiming to still be PM and Bill Shorten talking of resigning. With GreenLabor obsessed about “saving the planet” the PM should be able to finess Govt. out to 2025 if he keeps his head, governs for working people and is not undermined too much by leftie Liberal rats.
Wow – so polls are scarcely worth the paper they are printed on. Forests would have been cut down to print the last several years of GreenLabor fake news. Labor will surely be in for years of infighting and bloodletting now – agree ScoMo should reign till at least 2025 if he and party keep cool heads.
So what is ahead for the Nation now.
Our vital resources industry should be better able to keep on with business underpinning our entire economy with massive export earnings without a GreenLabor Fed Govt. harrassing them.
Specifically the Adani coal project has a better chance now.
Any reprise of “The Republic” is hit further off into the future.
The issue of “Indigenous Constitutional Recognition” is on a relative back-burner.
The risk of increasing totally insane GreenLabor flushing of useful MDB river water down to the sea is reduced.
If and when Indonesia pulls out of the Paris Climate dah dahs we should walk out with them.
Fed Govt should form an OzFuelsCorp and look to import direct from the Gulf to diversify our sources of supply.
Fed Govt should take what steps it can to increase gas availability in NSW, Vic and SA.
Fed Govt should take what steps it can to increase our liquid fuel stocks to at least 90 days supply.
Hopefully ScoMo wins enough of the doubtful seats to be able to get a message to the two Indies – that they should not waste their time calling.
Govt should ensure that coal fired power stations will only be shut down when replacement 24/7 generation capacity is ready and available.
We can only hope that Snowy 2.0 gets snarled in Green or NIMBY or technical delays and is never built.
More might come to mind –
Ironic really that Shorton may well have had a better chance as the lesser of two evils[ just] against Malcolm & Julie.
Dutton was vindicated , but you will never hear that in the MSM.
Bit of a turn up for the bookies as not a single public opinion poll had the Coalition ahead right up to polling day, yet they will finish 1 or 2 per cent front of the Labor opposition once preferences are distributed.
The main reason for the result is probably that Bill Shorten never looked Prime Minister material. He also overdid the class rhetoric and the new spending plans on “bottomless pit” projects.
If only ScoMo could just do nothing for the next 3 years in response to all the factitious crises that Shorten so urgently wanted to spend money on! Top of the list being climate change. The drivel that Labor and the independents came out with on this was appalling. High time they woke up to the reality that renewables, electric cars, and banning coal mines will have next to no effect even on Australia’s 1 per cent of global emissions, to say nothing of heatwaves, bushfires, the Great Barrier Reef etc. etc. The level of scientific illiteracy among the so-called educated population of Australia is appalling.
Article by David Archibald – Observations on the Recent Election in Australia 19May19
wentworthreport.com/observations-on-the-recent-election-in-australia/
This will be the end of politicians in Australia believing that climate change hysteria will win them the election. Apart from the Greens of course, who won’t learn from their decreasing vote.
1) Palaeochook and Jackie Trad up in Q’ld blood sacrificed Shorten to Gaia to keep a stop on Adani’s Carmichael mine.
Today they are unrepentant and in deep denial.
2) For the last three elections (and possibly even earlier), the pollsters have claimed that the size of the independent vote, and particularly Hanson and Palmer, was underestimated (a “surprise”). The underpolling factor here has increased to the point where last Saturday’s election exposed it as a Kingcrusher.
The reason for the underpolling is that the “little” people (Deplorables) dislike being sneered at for their views – so they increasingly lie to the pollsters.
The MSM and leftoids generally like to use the polls to influence voting, so they will never admit that such disinformation exists. This will continue to increase the inaccuracy of polling.
3) [Bertolt Brecht … and now the ABC] The peoples got it wrong. They must be dismissed and a new peoples appointed immediately.
4) I do hope Bowen is elected as Opposition Leader. He is such a political thug that the ALP will suffer deep turmoil for years.
There seem to be three contenders for Labor leadership:
1. Chris Bowen, a nong who thinks he is smart. An accountant in an economist’s job – he could never see the disincentive effects in his high-tax, high-spend policies.
2. Tanya Plibersek, why is she always so angry and resentful? She and her high-flying public servant husband are raking in a fortune every year, yet she seems to have a chip on both shoulders.
3. Anthony Albanese, the most plausible of the three. He has practiced talking to opponents like the TV journalist Andrew Bolt. Good practice for fooling the electorate. By far Labor’s best bet if they actually want to win next time.
Of course they are all global warmers, on a quasi-religious basis – I don’t think any of them have any real understanding of the issues. No matter how much we money we pour down the drain on failed green schemes, they will still complain we need to “do more to stop climate change”. It didn’t work this time except in rich inner city areas, and I doubt it will work next time either.
Central Q’lders are Aus’ Yellow Vests 🙂
There is now an extensive list of centre-left Aus politicians that have been destroyed by getting sassy with AGW: Nelson, Waffle (Turnbull) twice, Abbott, Rudd, Gillard, Shorten, Paleochook, Trad … and now NSW Labor is joining the queue.
Amazing what scientific illiteracy can do.
I hope we all saw where Terry McCrann has pointed out that if you subtract all Queensland results – the other States voted Labor 61 – Coalition 55. Cringe.
Data table (large Table) comparing the 2019 House of Reps results to 2016. A week ago Coalition figures were 41.4, ALP 33.9 and Greens 10. So counting last week added 0.4% to Coalition, the ALP lost 0.4% and Greens lost 0.1%. Senate results later.
2 press articles just emailed.
JENNIFER ORIEL
If a party’s policies require revision, then its value system needs a major overhaul
The Labor Party plans to reverse its losing streak by changing leaders and tweaking
policies. However, its problems are fundamental. Its electoral rout is the
consequence of outdated class war rhetoric, fashionable bigotry and a habit of
preaching to the converted. Its once egalitarian ethos has been transformed into an
increasingly insular order with limited demographic appeal.
As election night began, the Labor Party faithful were jubilant. By 9pm, they were
in shock. A state of disbelief soon gave way to resolute denial. Before long, some
had marched on to the third stage of grief, anger. They unleashed wrath on an
unsuspecting public. Just as Bill Shorten had responded to critical questions on the
environment by calling them dumb, so too did his team greet dissent with insult.
Voters were accused of failing to comprehend Labor’s terribly sophisticated vision
for the nation.
Anthony Albanese is favoured to become the next opposition leader. A class warrior
from the Left faction, he is more personable and less robotic than Shorten. But he
risks repeating history by failing to grasp the gravity of the problem facing Labor.
The ALP cannot afford yet again to elevate personality over policy, prioritise style
over substance and tweak policy instead of embracing wholesale reform of core
values. Albanese said: “All of our policies need to be looked at … but not our
values.” If all of a party’s policies require revision then its value system needs a
major overhaul.
There is something rotten in the state of Labor. The values it embraces are class
warfare, big government, porous borders, identity politics and social engineering.
It uses taxpayers’ money to create bloated bureaucracies for political causes that
divide Australians. It pledged to increase public service wages while the private
sector flounders. During the election campaign, it politicised the press by
promising the ABC and SBS more funding. Its economic agenda is based on taking money
from fiscal conservatives and showering it on spendthrifts.
Its fair go mantra is a lie. Labor embraces formal inequality by seeking to widen
the scope of discrimination laws that favour state-designated minority groups. It
demands conformity to political correctness by making censorship of dissent a state
prerogative.
Traditional supporters have lost the faith. Data analysed by former Queensland Labor
senator John Black indicates the ALP gained support from innercity voters on high
incomes. It appealed also to students clustered around the major cities, as well as
areas with regional university campuses. The Coalition picked up votes from
middle-class working families in the outer suburbs and Christians living in
lowerincome seats on urban fringes.
The changing demographic of the left is a controversial subject in fashionable
quarters. American political scientist Charles Murray provided a compelling analysis
of the trend. He hypothesised that a new class system was emerging in the US. The
new elite shared a similar educational background to the traditional upper class.
However, increasing access to Ivy League universities meant they were more numerous
and had influence across a wider range of professions and institutions. Their tastes
and cultural preferences were fostered by advanced education and differed markedly
to the culture of the majority. The divide was cemented by the concentration of
elites in wealthy postcodes, where they became isolated from the more diverse
beliefs of mainstream America.
Murray found that in the wealthiest postcode areas, the “SuperZips” , 64 per cent of
people were doctrinaire liberals. Only 10 per cent were doctrinaire conservatives
and 14 per cent held mixed views. Outside the SuperZips, the nation was almost
evenly split in conservative, liberal and mixed views with only a slight preference
for liberalism.
In Australia, the new elite is clustered around the major cities, especially
Melbourne and Sydney. Like their American counterparts, they have more tertiary
education and higher incomes than the majority and tend to lean liberal. Recent Roy
Morgan research showed that Greens supporters are increasingly female, located in
Melbourne or Sydney and have a higher median household income than most Australians.
A clear majority (55 per cent) of Greens supporters are in the top two
socio-economic quintiles, representing 40 per cent of the population. Thirty-one per
cent of Greens supporters are in the highest socio-economic quintile.
The contracting demography of green-left elites is especially problematic for
leftist parties in a Westminster system. But Labor won’t reckon with reality and its
leaders are refusing to update their value proposition. The party is at a
crossroads. It can acknowledge it lost the election badly, or write off its third
consecutive loss as a near miss due to an unpopular leader and poor communication.
Unfortunately, the party has assumed its default position of blame-shifting .
Albanese believes all Labor policies need to be “looked at” but its values are fine.
It makes no sense. Philosophical values are the basis of party policy. Australians
voted for the Coalition because its campaign platform was aligned with party values.
It created a sense of authenticity and appeal the opposition lacks. If Albanese
assumes the Labor leadership, reforming party values should take precedence over
fiddling with policies and polishing spin.
…………
;
NICK CATER
The opposition’s loss was neither the fault of the voters nor of another failed
messiah
There was nothing wrong with the polls, apparently. It was the voters who got it
wrong. Labor would have won by a landslide if the lard-headed nincompoops had paid
attention. Instead, they had “sent a message” to the Labor Party, Anthony Albanese
told the ABC’s 7.30 host Leigh Sales last week. The message was that “we haven’t
sold the message well enough”.
That Labor’s new leader should even bother talking about marketing the message, and
not the message itself, shows that the implications of the party’s rejection have
yet to sink in. Labor will face the next election having spent 51 of the previous 75
years in opposition. The 13 years of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating are looking like an
aberration. So long as it remains estranged from the workers it once represented, it
is incapable of governing in its own right. Labor’s loss was neither the fault of
the voters nor of another failed messiah. Shorten was reading from a script written
by Labor’s elders three years before he became leader.
The origins of Labor’s epic miscalculation are revealed in a book by Michael
Thompson published shortly before the election. In 2010, after Julia Gillard’s near
defeat against Tony Abbott, the party ordered a secret review by Steve Bracks, John
Faulkner and Bob Carr into the causes of the party’s failure. When it was eventually
published, two out of the three sections were redacted.
The report sounded the alarm at the crisis in membership. Labor faced the same
challenge as European social-democratic parties whose support base had been
“devoured by Green or leftleaning parties on the one hand and right-wing populist
parties with a largely anti-immigrant agenda on the other”. The authors recommended
a strategy to target voters lost to the Greens by advocating stronger action on
climate change and support for gay marriage. Labor should champion its “history of
successful progressive reform” and develop stronger ties to the unions.
The 2010 review established the plot for the disaster which culminated on election
day, May 18, when Labor won the battle against the Greens in the Victorian seats of
Cooper, Wills and Macnamara only to lose the war in the rest of the country.
Before Labor can learn the lessons from this election, it must learn a lesson from
decades ago. Robert Menzies’s appeal to middle-class ambition at the 1949 poll set a
pattern for post-war Australia that Bill Shorten thought he could break. Like others
who tried to break it before, he failed.
The rise and fall of Shorten is a metaphor for the souring of Labor’s relationship
with the workers. His ascension began as the workers’ champion at the 2006
Beaconsfield mine disaster. “He speaks the language of the people; everyone is
‘mate’,” wrote an enthusiastic colour writer in The Age. It ended on May 9, the 13th
anniversary of Brant Webb and Todd Russell’s rescue, when Shorten was treated with
contempt by a worker at the Port of Brisbane to whom he had extended his hand.
The title of Thompson’s book, Labor’s Forgotten People, acknowledges that the party
has more to learn from Menzies than it does from Thomas Piketty, although Thompson
as a Labor loyalist might be afraid to say so. Thompson finds that the strong
internal reviews that began after Labor’s 1963 defeat share a common narrative.
Chastened by its electoral fall from grace, the party is now listening to the
people. Changes to its structure are recommended that will make it fit to govern
again.
The adoption of quotas for women is the only recommendation that has been
consistently followed, notes Thompson. Indeed, after the 2013 election defeat,
Shorten went so far as to demand quotas for lesbians and gays.
The lure of identity politics is the key to Labor’s downfall. The first signs appear
in a 1979 review that called on the party to do more to increase its appeal to
women, ethnic communities and young voters. Yet, as the 2002 review acknowledges,
affirmative action had the perverse effect of alienating Labor’s blue-collar base.
Female candidates were lawyers , teachers and academics. Few if any could boast low
socioeconomic credentials.
The resonance from the 1949 election resonated in this year’s election night call of
the card. The Coalition comfortably held the seat of Menzies when the mighty wind of
climate anger that was supposed to smite the Liberals in Victoria failed to lay low
its strongholds.
A cyclone of sorts did strike in Chifley, however, the western Sydney seat named
after Labor’s last working-class prime minister and the loser in 1949. The 7 per
cent swing against Labor in Chifley was in keeping with most seats in western
Sydney, where the Coalition has strengthened its grip at every election since the
early 1990s with two exceptions. It lost ground in 2007, when Kevin Rudd fooled
voters into thinking he was on the side of the battlers. And it slipped again in
2016, when the Malcolm Turnbull Experiment, as we now call it, worked in the
blue-ribbon heartland but failed miserably in the blue-collar suburbs.
This election has proved once and for all that Thompson’s working class — or, as
others might call it, the middle class — is not heading for extinction, confounding
progressives on both sides of parliament. Chris Bowen responded to claims that Labor
was not selecting enough working-class candidates in 2013 by arguing that Chifley
would not be an engine driver if he were alive today. He claimed that thanks to
Gough Whitlam’s abolition of university fees, Hawke and Keating’s re-introduction of
fees, and Rudd and Gillard’s expansion of universities, “young Ben Chifley may well
(have) become a lawyer, doctor, engineer or economist”. Thompson believes otherwise,
concluding that Labor’s days as a mass party are gone.
The ultimate threat to Labor would be the rise of a leader in John Howard’s
tradition, who talked over the head of the mainstream media and appealed directly to
socially conservative Australians, who included large swaths of traditional Labor
voters.
At the time of writing, Thompson could see no Liberal parliamentarian on the horizon
with Howard’s instincts. After Scott Morrison’s emphatic victory and near-faultless
campaign, he might be tempted to change his mind.
Nick Cater is the executive director of the Menzies Research Centre
A look at right of centre WA Senate results from David Archibald.
ABC just now says “One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts is neck and neck with the third LNP candidate Gerard Rennick, and both lead Labor’s Chris Ketter. Positions on the ballot paper will favour both One Nation and the LNP in preferences from United Australia and from smaller right-wing parties. Unless Labor’s vote improves on further counting of first preferences, Ketter will be excluded, elect Larissa Waters, and see Roberts and Rennick win the final seats.” I blogged re Gerard Rennick see 5 blogs down. Amazing if we got two climate sceptics elected for Qld.