It is a couple of years since I posted my chart and the predicted end of cycle 24 is being discussed. Large chart.
Checking various sunspot number graphics at SILSO we can see that solar cycle 24 which is ending has been the lowest amplitude SC since the one that peaked just before 1910 – a ~104 year record. Of course now there is discussion about when SC24 will end and I see SILSO records divergent predictions of the SC24-25 transition. I see NOAA has a prediction that SC24 might extend as late as 2021/22.
There is also discussion about the amplitude of SC25 and I see this Wiki records the predictions of several research groups. My 13month smooth on the SWO series peaks at 123.6 in Apr2014 – but I do not know what smoothing NOAA applies. So the Chinese group favours a stronger SC25 while Northumbria clearly favours weaker and Kolkata and NOAA could be having a bet each way. This press article is spruiking a stronger SC25 and mentions a NOAA workshop so I will look for results out of that. New large chart with 8Apr19 NOAA prediction out to Dec 2022. This prediction says there will be no transition to Cycle 25 before end 2022 – I should add – here is where I source my main data for the chart
Surely there is a problem here. Since the empirical data failed to fit the 2008 model, post-modern science requires that we change that data.
When I hear the word “expert” I reach for a large raspberry.
Wazz, I do not follow the sunspot cycles closely but I have noted that cycle 24 was much lower than predicted during cycle 23. Further, there are a number of people saying cycle 24 has finished and cycle 25 has started at low level and will be lower than cycle 24. There is a chap (I think his name stars with I and looks Swedish) on WUWT who has a big ego and lots of excuses for when he is wrong.
One person writing about cycle 25 is Miles Mathis website here milesmathis.com/updates.html
“NEW PAPER, added 11/27/18, Solar Cycle 25 has already begun. My revolutionary prediction of 2014 has come to pass, sending the mainstream even further under the bed.”
I am not saying he is right but Miles appears to be what some describe a polymath and many of his papers are interesting . He knows maths better than Stephen Hawkins who may not have been the same person after a near death which should have killed him. Also look at his thoughts on LIGO and gravitational waves.
cementafriend
I think the cycles overlap. New cycle sunspots are different to old ones but the sun can have both on it’s face. I know there was a new cycle one and an old cycle one together about a month ago but like you do not watch close enough.
Interesting how different summaries of this can be from different sources.
“Experts Predict a Long, Deep Solar Minimum” 10Apr19
SILSO have an update page on cycle 25.
Solar Cycle 25 Posted on: 23 April 2019 By: Admin
www.sidc.be/silso/node/152
and you can click to A more detailed explanation 5Apr19
Solar experts predict the Sun’s activity in Solar Cycle 25 to be below average, similar to Solar Cycle 24
www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle
NOAA Spaceweather now has an 8Apr19 prediction with monthly numbers for “Predicted Sunspot Numbers and Radio Flux” showing the cycle 24/25 transition not bottoming before end 2022.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
Thanks to David Archibald for this link to Solaemon’s solar page with many charts to browse and ponder.