Hat-tip David Brewer – thanks Dave. Checkout the BoM rain Outlook for Jan issued 20th Dec. – Townsville region EXACTLY defined as v dry and Mt Isa-Winton region also dryer than average. He can’t tadalafil online order www.cerritosmedicalcenter.com/pid-6085 have an orgasm, and he may need to see a doctor after the medicine starts working. A physical therapy is meant as a dynamic profession which has been as established by the theoretical and scientific base clinical applications to restore, maintain and promote general fitness and health. generic viagra in stores www.cerritosmedicalcenter.com/pid-8534 cheapest viagra tablets When you should ellude it? You should stay away from faintness. This is because many separate viagra fast shipping conditions can affect the intricate structure of the ear. The tropics too, predicted dryer than average – marvel at BoM incompetence. Jan actual rain Percentages – Larger Jan Outlook map
Rain Outlook for Feb issued 17 Jan – Townsville region still defined as way dryer than average – ditto Mt Isa region. Feb month to date actual rain Percentages
Sheesh what a disaster for BoM Outlooks. But BoM is safe, the GreenLeft main-stream-media will never report these facts. BoM is a sacred cow, our oracle from the Climate Change Temple.
How about the temperature Outlooks?
Well spotted! Warwick, your readers should distribute links to your site and copies of these forecasts and actuals to all news outlets and commentators. This terrible Townsville disaster is, and will remain a headline for quite some time and these useless BoM forecasts are clearly guesswork pandering to climate alarmists. Given these maps side by side the public will see clearly the failure of the BoM to even remotely forewarn of this disaster.
In recent months it has been pointed out to me that items such as the BoM map above are simply probabilistic forecasts. Criticisms of any individual probabilistic forecast are dismissed as being made by people who have not understanding of probabilistic forecasting.
As excuses go it is beaut.
This was an extremely opportunistic and unethical slandeer against the BOM.
You cannot predict where monsoons and cyclones hit and their severity over a month before hand.
Brought to us by BOM’s “dynamical climate model”.
“Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S).
It is a state-of-the-art dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system”
“ACCESS–S replaced POAMA in August 2018.”
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/#tabs=Outlook-model
Chris said “You cannot predict where monsoons and cyclones hit and their severity over a month before hand.”
The BOM says
“Monsoon
The northern Australian monsoon season generally lasts from December to March. It is associated with the inflow of moist west to northwesterly winds into the monsoon trough, producing convective cloud and heavy rainfall over northern Australia. ”
If you cannot predict a monsoon trough in the monsoon season a month ahead, then it seems a bit pointless making rainfall predictions for Northern Australia during the monsoon season.
Chris Warren – According to the BoM monsoonal rains deliver the vast majority of the annual rainfall across most of tropical northern Australia. The Townsville floods are due to a monsoonal rains so if the BoM cant predict a significant monsoonal rainfall event a month before it occurs then I for one question their relevance.
I have been critical of failed BoM Outlooks for over a decade.
I have asked BoM & Ministers to stop wasting taxpayers money on their 3 month Outlooks. They insist on keeping on with their garbage. Oz pollies are mostly thoroughly conned by BoM. Here are rainfall Outlooks critiques going back to 2004 2005 2006 Do not bother trying ancient email addresses.
Jeff and Lank
Deliberately switching the context from a supposed prediction for Townsville (the real topic) to your predictions – for Northern Australia (a different area and topic), does you no credit.
Clearly a BOM failure.
If they cannot make an accurate forecast then disband BOM and. set up a different mob who can.
Right on Bill provided they don’t put Chis Warren in charge – he’s not sure if Townsville is in North Australia.
By the way, large parts of inland Queensland (also northern Australia) stretching west to Mt Isa are in flood from the monsoonal rain including the Cloncurry River, Diamantina and many others.
> “You cannot predict where monsoons and cyclones hit and their severity over a month before hand”
says Chris Warren, amongst other things.
www.zdnet.com/article/bom-gets-cray-supercomputer-for-weather-prediction/
says the BoM.
We wonder why they bother with 3-month forecasts if they’re pointless – perhaps being protected from external audit by Federal Cabinet emboldens them ? Who knows ?
Away from the endless tedium of failed futurism, the Aus hydrological map shows Lake Eyre’s drainage area extending north-east to Mt Isa and further. So it seems likely that eventually the current monsoonal flooding may also fill the lake. What, to me, a fascinating geology/geography the continent has.
When I was young my father’s advice was “remember water flows downhill”. A lot of people don’t like to think so, and don’t like to be told so, but it will happen.
Chris Warren: “You cannot predict where monsoons and cyclones hit and their severity over a month before hand.”
Not when your 97% physics is busted.
2017: “But he (Dr Andrew Watkins the manager of climate prediction services at the bureau) said “basic physics” governed that climate change would increase the intensity of cyclones in the future.
It does not, however, explain this season’s anomaly.
“Being perfectly honest, [CO2 induced global warming] is a factor in most of our climate science these days but in terms of tropical cyclones you couldn’t put this season down to [CO2 induced global warming],” he said.”
www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/cyclone-blanche-is-latest-to-cross-land-in-second-consecutive-quiet-season-in-australian-history/news-story/220bd07cbd24d1db32cfd2175d3ec2ac
Here’s a clue, and a poor attempt at purging it:
Fewer cyclones with climate change – but why?
18:06 7 April 2011
“We can’t give a lucid answer at this time,” replied Knutson – which he admitted, was a concern.
One clue, however, came from the modelling.
Knutson said that removing carbon dioxide from the models wiped off around half of the cyclone’s predicted intensity.
www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2011/04/fewer-cylones-with-climate-cha.html
Yes, conveniently, but unscientifically, the page has been purged.
The article covered a scientists meeting in Cairns of coral reefs in 2011.
It was recorded at this site, which also not accessible:
thecomingcrisis.blogspot.com/2011/04/fewer-cyclones-with-climate-change-but.html
Copy paste “Knutson said that removing carbon dioxide from the models wiped off around half of the cyclone’s predicted intensity. ” into ‘google will/might give dead link to ‘crisis’ site.
Warwick, thank you. I’ve posted on this. joannenova.com.au/2019/02/six-weeks-ago-australian-met-bureau-predicted-a-dry-month-for-townsville/
As I added:
Predicting rainfall in Australia is very difficult. It’s not that the BoM gets it wrong — it’s that they pretend they can do it that matters. Why bother issuing one month forecasts?
Ten days out they were still hopelessly wrong
As Warwick Hughes notes they also predicted on Jan 17th that February in Townsville would only have a 45% chance of exceeding the average rainfall. The downpour started on Jan 27th.
Today, after one whole week in February, the area has already had over four times the normal rainfall for the whole month, but the BoM didn’t see that rain coming ten days in advance.
The fancy-pants detailed graphics are entirely misleading — like advertising that sells an ability the experts simply don’t have. We don’t want genius from our BoM, we just want honesty.
Warwick, your post is now at Jo Nova’s website. Cheers, JB.
joannenova.com.au/2019/02/six-weeks-ago-australian-met-bureau-predicted-a-dry-month-for-townsville/
Elephant in the room question today is – how many Townsville houses(and we need a map of where they are) have been built where historic floods have reached. Some photos and press of past floods.
In every one of these months that are one lunar standstill step sequence cycle apart you can see high rainfall around Townsville except January 1926. In January 1926 only one part of Queeensland got any decent rain. Guess which part.
2019.1 – 18.6 repeating. Gives…
2000.5 June
1981.9 November
1963.3 April
1944.7 August
1926.1 January
1907.5 June
Select those dates here.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/archive.jsp?colour=colour&map=percent&period=month&area=nat&year=1944&month=8&day=31
I would like to thank Neil Barraclough for encouraging me to look closer at this cycle.
Lance Pidgeon.
Ooops was looking at Feb 1926 so should read ” In Feb 1926 only one part of Queeensland got any decent rain. Guess which part.” etc.
Oh wait that is the BoM version of 1926.
Trove has many many reports of massive January and February floods in 1926.
“STORM AT TOWNSVILLE.
Adelaide, February 11th.
A telegram from Brisbane reports that
over seventeen inches of rain were re
corded at one centre during a cyclone and
storm in Townsville district, causing floods
and washouts on the railway line.”
trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/168239580
“FLOODS IN NORTH..
RAILWAYS SUBMERGED.
TRAFFIC DISORGANISED.
TOWNSVYLLE, January 18.
The Mulgrave River is in flood.’
Trains to and from Cairns are run
ning from an lhour to an hour and a
half behind time. It was still rain
ing to-day, and there was every ap
pearance of its continuing.”
trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/118615018
Many more.
trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/result?q=Townsville+floods&l-decade=192&l-year=1926
Clearly this did happen and the AWAP maps are wrong. Has there been an effort to remove climate cycles from history? Or is it just this one dodgy year?
A bit closer to home, Warwick, the BoM made a big fuss earlier this week of an impending five day heatwave. No surprise that it’s failed to eventuate. Tomorrow was forecast to be 40C, now downgraded to 37C and Monday 34C, now a hugely disappointing 27C, necessitating sweater snd beanie.
Par for the course. And we thought that Church and State were separated? Not anymore. The religion of AGW is firmly welded to politics.
I did comment on that at another thread on 6th Feb.
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6064
BoM beating up a few hot days due in Perth – about time they saw some hot days.
Perth weather to soar into high 30s in the longest run of hot days since 2014 6Feb19
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-05/perth-weather-set-for-hottest-streak-in-five-years/10782408
Perth weather forecast
Wednesday: Sunny, 20-36
Thursday: Very hot, possible afternoon storm, 21-38
Friday: Possible morning storm, 20-35
Saturday: Very hot and sunny, 20-38
Sunday: Very hot and mostly sunny, 23-40
Monday: Sunny, 20-34
Interesting how the ABC and the BoM are so desperate to hype global warming that they wailing about records based on forecasts instead of observations. Last month we had the Mildura farce – six days in a row above 40 predicted, only 3 occurred – and now this emoting about what would have only been a pretty ordinary hot spell for Perth if the predictions were met…
…which they are not going to be. Actual top temps on Thursday and Saturday were 35 instead of 38, and Sunday and Monday, predicted 40 and 34 in the story, are now predicted 36 and 27.
They have been doing this for years. Check this story about Perth hot days from 2016: www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-09/hot-weather-record-for-perth/7153994
Hmm, “Perth swelters in heatwave, breaking 50-year-old weather record” – only the headline was not about reality but about a forecast – if you can call an “if” statement a forecast:
“Perth’s longest run of 40 degree days or more consecutively is four, and that was recorded back in 1933, if we get five we’ve broken that record and we’ve moved into uncharted territory basically,” [Bureau of Meteorology spokesman] Mr Bennett said.”
Only, basically, it didn’t happen, just like now…
I’m curious about the Feb month to date actual and the majority of Australia with zero % of the mean. Seems a disingenuous presentation to me.
What’s the Feb mean rainfall at Uluru, for example? Must be as near to zero as you could get, in which case nil rainfall month to date would be extremely close to the mean.
Candidate for pessimist of the year.
ABC reports Rains bring relief to bushfire-weary Tasmanian towns and fire crews 8th Feb 2019
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/rains-help-bushfire-effort-across-tasmania/10788252
Quote “After weeks of intensive efforts to battle fires threatening towns and wilderness areas, the news of the rain arriving was greeted cautiously by Tasmania Fire Service’s Darren Gye, who said the downpour could hamper assessment of the situation.”
I suppose it is a change from “the rain will soften tracks causing firetrucks to get bogged” or “the rain will prevent our aircraft from flying”