Forecasts on Guardian 21Dec18 – Christmas Eve ABC warnings – Let’s run some checks. BTW – The 30 day SOI is near +10 so we are not in an El Nino.
Forecasts on Guardian 21Dec18 – Christmas Eve ABC warnings – Let’s run some checks. BTW – The 30 day SOI is near +10 so we are not in an El Nino.
Getting back to your original question.
“Does it not appear that this is a dry period line? ie every 10 years it is dry across Australia (maybe it should be about eleven years to coincide with cycles in the sun and the orbit of Jupiter)
Going by the patterns the coming year should be wetter and have more cyclones.”
Another recent paper.
A plausible modulation mechanism is thus proposed to link the terrestrial weather phenomenon to the seemingly-unrelated solar wind energy input.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617306211
Lance – that would be the Victorian Govt. Astronomer Ellery. My little 1995 4 page published paper summed up the three Colonial Met. Conferences – 350Kb pdf
Headline for article at Weatherzone today.
‘Record hot spell coming to abrupt end in Sydney’.
‘Today will become the ninth consecutive day the city has reached at least 28 degrees, equalling the record, set in February 1949.’
Would record-equalling be a better description?
There have been many claims that there are more warmer days in Sydney than in previous times.
So I checked the daily temps for Sydney to see if these claims held up. I looked at a 30-year from 1921-1950 (incl) and compared it with the past 30 years – 1989-2018 9incl).
1921-1950 had 114 days over 35C and 13 over 40C (127 days over 35C).
1989-2018 had 99 days over 35C and 13 over 40C (112 days over 35C).
Maybe claims are not necessarily true.
Wazz
Thankyou for those clues. I read your paper and found those meeting minutes and the Vic museum picture. Ellery did mention a Stevenson in use for a short time before 1880. What i found there is very very interesting. I can’t copy and past from it being a picture but may have found good reason to adjust the temperatures he recorded there after March 1880 up (not the usual down) because he was using a screen made from zinc and corrugated iron to overcome the lag and overshoot problems found in the dodgy Stevenson idea. This lowered his readings to match the swing thermometer. Excited I am. Also found how the New Zealand bloke mentioned that two Stevensons a chain apart can read very differently.
See page 12 point 77 to page 13 point 81 inclusive here.
I had found other information that shows how crap Stevensons are but this really spells it out.
Also Todd suggested they all compare to swing thermometers. If they have done this then there is an obvious better way to line up the old readings to the currnt readings than via homogenisation. Just compare the mordern ones to slings.
nla.gov.au/nla.obj-720220424/view?partId=nla.obj-720228657#page/n12/mode/1up