First checking daytime max temperature and we see a huge part of SE Australia with an 80% chance of seeing hotter than average days. The real world anomalies showed exactly the opposite with the SE cool.
The minimum – night-time temperature prediction had an east-west band of heat across the continent. And warmer nights in the SE coastal fringe. In real life June nights were mostly cooler than average across Australia with no sign of an east-west warm band.
The June rain Outlook was for mostly dry conditions in the SE yet there were many areas of average or near average rain there.
True, the forecasts are worthless, as this site has proved over and over again. Why does the BoM keep regaling us with totally unreliable model forecasts, the only possible practical effect of which will be to mislead farmers, graziers and others planning some action based on expected weather?
But what really irks me (as a professional statistician, ha!) is that the forecasts are not even being made on the same basis as the data. The first link, to expected temperatures, shows the chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for 1981-2000. But the second link, to observed temperatures, displays them as departures from the average maximum for 1961-1990. So, an earlier reference period, and means instead of medians.
What does the BoM think it’s doing? Not only are they misleading our men and women on the land – who are feeding the nation – but their prophesies and data are not even on the same basis.
The BoM obviously have up-to-date climate normals – i.e. for 1981-2010 – since that’s what they use in their dopey modelling. But why don’t they use them for showing actual anomalies? That would be far better than comparing last month’s rainfall and temperature with conditions 28-58 years ago. Or do they think that climate never changes – despite all their wailing and gnashing of teeth over global warming?
I have noticed how in BoM weather reports lately on ABC News there seems to be always a reference to above average temperatures yet when you check back on daily max or min anomaly for July there are large areas of continent green below average. Somehow BoM/ABC never mentions these large areas.
While our maximum in Broome is still a little above average, our minimums for July have crashed, now averaging almost 6C below that of 2010 for July.
Yes Silligy I did see the National Night-time Hotspot” (NNTHS) errors flashing their light this month.
If anybody has ideas why the sudden re-emergence – please put us out of our suspense.