In all the GreenLeft media puffing about a hot April no MSM will report this monster failure issued 26 April.
First the Max t Outlook for May 2018 I think not 1 square cm of Australia predicted to be cooler than average.
Second the May actual real world max t anomaly shows many areas of Australia to have been cooler than average in May.
Third the Min t Outlook for May 2018 I think not 1 square cm of Australia predicted to be cooler than average.
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How could they get that so stunningly wrong?
> “How could they get that so stunningly wrong?”
Fair enough, but more to the point, why does the MSM persist so single-mindedly in *not* reporting it ?
The answer has long been obvious – a mix of vain-glory, hubris and noble cause corruption. You found the same mix when you asked Jones for a copy of his data.
If Im trying to get an idea of what the season ahead might be for the farm I read what the BOM forecast and assume that whatever weather we will get will be not that. The BOM just issue propaganda.
Some things do get noticed. Seems that the models they use cannot cope when seasons change. Well that is understandable. Winter must be something very new and an anathema. www.dailymercury.com.au/news/bom-tells-why-they-got-the-winter-forecast-so-wron/3432417/
Good find Silligy – not too often BoM cops any adverse media.
I am trying to get a series of Mackay forecasts from late May and will check newspapers in local library this afternoon. Mackay (and other districts) sure had a chilly first 4 days in June.
Here in the north, Broome’s May maximum is 2C lower than 1998, 2.5C lower than 1938.
May’s average minimum is an extraordinary 4.7C lower than 2014 and 2016 and 4.8C lower than 1921. Colder to come?
Also, check the fine print on the two maps.
1. Predictions: “Base period: 1981-2010”
2. Real world outcome: “All temperature anomalies are calculated with respect to the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period.”
So, since average temperatures – at least the way they measure them – were higher in 1981-2010 than in 1961-90, their predictions are even WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
And what bunglers the BoM are to be running different base periods for forecasts and outcomes. Not even they can see clearly how far out they are. Mind you, their results are so awful, they probably don’t want to know.
He said the prediction system which combines an average reading of atmosphere and temperature trends is not good at predicting sudden drops in air temperature because the result it shows is an average “consensus” of recent temperatures. Another example of failure due to following consensus rather than the data
Still trying to get forecasts for Qld coastal towns published 31st May. If anybody has The Australian for 31st May?? Please photo that weather page.