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This chart (thanks to David Archibald) speaks volumes about the increasing failure rate in F-35 evaluations over 20 years.
Some copy n paste on the F-35 from the DOTE report – in the section headed “FY16 DOD PROGRAMS” starting pdf page 75
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
Executive Summary
Test Strategy, Planning, Activity, and Assessment
• The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program Office (JPO)
acknowledged in 2016 that schedule pressure exists for
completing System Development and Demonstration (SDD)
and starting Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (IOT&E)
by August 2017, the planned date in JPO’s Integrated Master
Schedule. In an effort to stay on schedule, JPO plans to
reduce or truncate planned developmental testing (DT) in
an effort to minimize delays and close out SDD as soon as
possible. However, even with this risky, schedule-driven
approach, multiple problems and delays make it clear that
the program will not be able to start IOT&E with full combat
capability until late CY18 or early CY19, at the soonest.
These problems include:
— Continued schedule delays in completing Block 3F
mission systems development and flight testing, which
DOT&E estimates will likely complete in July 2018
— Delayed and incomplete Block 3F DT Weapons Delivery
Accuracy (WDA) events and ongoing weapons integration
issues
— Continued delays in completing flight sciences test points,
particularly those needed to clear the full F-35B Block 3F
flight envelope, resulting in a phased release of Block 3F
envelope across the variants, with the full Block 3F
envelope for F-35B not being released until mid-CY18
— Further delays in completing gun testing for all three
variants and recently discovered gunsight deficiencies
— Late availability of verified, validated and tested Block 3F
Mission Data Loads (MDLs) for planned IOT&E and
aircraft delivery dates; DOT&E estimates the first
validated MDLs will not be available until June 2018
— Continued shortfalls and delays with the Autonomic
Logistics Information System (ALIS) and late delivery of
ALIS version 3.0, the final planned version for SDD, at
risk of slipping from early CY18 into mid-CY18
— Significant, well-documented deficiencies; for hundreds
of these, the program has no plan to adequately fix and
verify with flight test within SDD; although it is common
for programs to have unresolved deficiencies after
development, the program must assess and mitigate the
cumulative effects of these remaining deficiencies on F-35
effectiveness and suitability prior to finalizing and fielding
Block 3F
— Overall ineffective operational performance with multiple
key Block 3F capabilities delivered to date, relative to
planned IOT&E scenarios which are based on various
fielded threat laydowns
— Continued low aircraft availability and no indications
of significant improvement, especially for the early
production lot IOT&E aircraft
— Insufficient progress in verification of Joint Technical
Data, particularly those for troubleshooting aircraft fault
codes and for support equipment
— Delays in completing the required extensive and
time‑consuming modifications to the fleet of operational
test aircraft which, if not mitigated with an executable plan
and contract, could significantly delay the start of IOT&E
— Insufficient progress in the following areas which are
required for IOT&E:
▪▪ Development, integration, and testing of the Air-to-Air
Range Infrastructure instrumentation into the F-35
aircraft
▪▪ Flight testing to certify the Data Acquisition, Recording,
and Telemetry pod throughout the full flight envelope
▪▪ Development of other models, including the Fusion
Simulation Model, Virtual Threat Insertion table, and
the Logistics Composite Model
— Delays in providing training simulators in the Block 3F
configuration to the initial training centers and operational
locations
• Based on these ongoing problems and delays, and including
the required time for IOT&E spin-up, the program will not
be ready to start IOT&E until late CY18, at the soonest, or
more likely early CY19. In fact, IOT&E could be delayed
to as late as CY20, depending on the completion of required
modifications to the IOT&E aircraft.
Progress in Developmental Testing
• Mission Systems Testing
— The program continues to pursue a cost- and
schedule‑driven plan to delete planned mission systems
DT points by using other test data for meeting test point
objectives in order to accelerate SDD close-out. This
plan, if not properly executed with applicable data, sufficient analytical rigor and statistical confidence, would
shift significant risk to operational test (OT), Follow-on
Modernization (FoM) and the warfighter.
— This risky approach would also discard carefully planned
build-up test content in the Test and Evaluation Master
Plan (TEMP) and the Block 3F Joint Test Plan (JTP),
content the program fully agreed was required when
those documents were signed. The program plans to
“quarantine” JTP build‑up test points, which are planned
to be flown by the test centers, and instead skip ahead
to complex graduation‑level Mission Effectiveness Risk
Reduction test points, recently devised to quickly sample
full Block 3F performance. Then, if any of the Block 3F
functionality appears to work correctly during the complex
test points, the program would delete the applicable
underlying build-up test points for those capabilities and
designate them as “no longer required.” However, the
program must ensure the substitute data are applicable and
provide sufficient statistical confidence that the test point
objectives had been met prior to deleting any underlying
build-up test points. While this approach may provide a
quick sampling assessment of Block 3F capabilities, there
are substantial risks. The multiple recent software versions
for flight test may prevent the program from using data
from older versions of software to count for baseline test
point deletions because it may no longer be representative
of Block 3F. The limited availability and high cost of
Western Test Range periods, combined with high re-fly
rates for test missions completed on the range, make it
difficult for the program to efficiently conduct this testing.
Finally, the most complex capabilities in Block 3F have
only recently reached the level of maturity to allow them
to be tested, and they are also some of the most difficult
test points to execute (i.e., full Block 3F capabilities and
flight envelope).
— Historical experience indicates this approach, if not
properly executed, may delay problem discoveries and
increase the risk to completing SDD and increase the risk
of failure in IOT&E (as well as, much more importantly, in
combat). In fact, the program needs to allocate additional
test points – which are not in its current plans – for
characterization, root cause investigations, and correction
of a large number of the open high-priority deficiencies
and technical debt described later in this report. The
completion of the planned baseline test points from
the Block 3F JTP, along with correction or mitigation
of significant deficiencies, is necessary to ensure full
Block 3F capabilities are adequately tested and verified
before IOT&E and, more importantly, before they are
fielded for use in combat.
— Until recently, the Program Office estimated that mission
systems flight testing will complete in October 2017. It
now acknowledges the risk that this testing may extend
into early CY18.
▪▪ The October 2017 estimate was based on an inflated
test point accomplishment rate and optimistically low regression and re-fly rates. The estimate also assumed
that the Block 3FR6 software, delivered to flight test
in December 2016, would have the maturity necessary
to complete the remaining test points and meet
specification requirements without requiring additional
versions of software to address shortfalls in capability.
However, this is highly unlikely, since several essential
capabilities – including aimed gunshots and Air-to-Air
Range Infrastructure – had not yet been flight tested
or did not yet work properly when Block 3FR6 was
released.
▪▪ The Services have designated 276 deficiencies in combat
performance as “critical to correct” in Block 3F, but less
than half of the critical deficiencies were addressed with
attempted corrections in 3FR6.
▪▪ Independent estimates from other Pentagon staff
agencies vary from March 2018 to July 2018 to
complete mission systems testing – all based on the
current number of test points remaining and actual
historic regression and re-fly rates from the flight test
program. Even these estimates are optimistic in that
they account for only currently planned testing, which
does not yet include the activities needed to correct the
Services’ remaining high-priority deficiencies.
• Flight sciences testing continues to be a source of significant
discovery, another indication that the program is not nearing
completion of development and readiness for IOT&E. For
example:
— Fatigue and migration of the attachment bushing in the
joint between the vertical tail and the aircraft structure are
occurring much earlier than planned in both the F-35A
and F-35B, even with a newly designed joint developed to
address shortfalls in the original design.
— Excessive and premature wear on the hook point of the
arresting gear on the F-35A, occuring as soon as after only
one use, has caused the program to consider developing a
more robust redesign.
— Higher than predicted air flow temperatures were measured
in the engine nacelle bay during flight testing in portions
of the flight envelope under high dynamic pressure on both
the F-35A and F-35C; thermal stress analyses are required
to determine if airspeed restrictions will be needed in this
portion of the flight envelope.
— Overheating of the horizontal tail continued to cause
damage, as was experienced on BF-3, one of the
F-35B flight sciences test aircraft, while accelerating in
afterburner to Mach 1.5 for a loads test point. The left
horizontal inboard fairing surface reached temperatures
that exceeded the design limit by a significant amount.
Post‑flight inspections revealed de-bonding due to heat
damage on the trailing edge of the horizontal tail surface
and on the horizontal tail rear spar.
— Vertical oscillations during F-35C catapult launches were
reported by pilots as excessive, violent, and therefore a
safety concern during this critical phase of flight. The
program is still investigating alternatives to address this
deficiency, which makes a solution in time for IOT&E and
Navy fielding unlikely.
Mission Data Load Development and Testing
• Mission data files, which comprise MDLs, are essential to
enable F-35 mission systems to function properly. Block 3F
upgrades to the U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL) –
where mission data files are developed, tested and validated
for operational use – are late to meet the needs for Block
3F production aircraft and IOT&E. These upgrades to the
Block 3F configuration, including the associated mission
data file generation tools, are necessary to enable the USRL
to begin Block 3F mission data file development. In spite
of the importance of the mission data to both IOT&E and
to combat, the Program Office and Lockheed Martin have
failed to manage, contract, and deliver the necessary USRL
upgrades to the point that fully validated Block 3F MDLs
will not be ready for IOT&E until June 2018, at the earliest.
• Operational units are also affected by the capability shortfalls
in the USRL to create, test and field MDLs. The complete
set of Block 2B and Block 3i MDLs developed for overseas
areas of responsibility (AORs) have yet to undergo the full
set of lab and flight tests necessary to validate and verify
these MDLs for operational use. Because of the delays
in upgrading the USRL to the Block 3F configuration, the
Services will likely not have Block 3F MDLs for overseas
AORs until late 2018 or early 2019.
• In addition to the late Block 3F USRL upgrades, the required
signal generators for the USRL – with more high-fidelity
channels to simulate modern fielded threats – have not yet
been placed on contract. As a result, the Block 3F MDLs
will not be tested and optimized to ensure the F-35 will
be capable of detecting, locating, and identifying modern
fielded threats until 2020, per a recent program schedule.
The program is developing multiple laboratories in order
to produce MDLs tailored for partner nation-unique
requirements, some of which will have more high-fidelity
signal generator channels earlier than the USRL. The
program is considering using one of these other laboratories
for Block 3F MDL development and testing; however,
the MDL that will be used for IOT&E must be developed,
verified, validated, and tested using operationally
representative procedures, like the MDLs that will be
developed for the operational aircraft in the USRL.
Weapons Integration and Demonstration Events
• Block 3F weapons delivery accuracy (WDA) events are
not complete. These events, required by the TEMP, are key
developmental test activities necessary to ensure the full
fire-control capabilities support the “find, fix, track, target,
engage, assess” kill chain. As of the end of November,
only 5 of the 26 events (excluding the gun events) had been
completed and fully analyzed. Several WDAs have revealed
deficiencies and limitations to weapons employment (e.g.,
AIM-9X seeker status tone problems and out-of-date launch
zones for AIM-120 missiles). An additional 11 WDAs had
occurred, but analyses were ongoing. Of the 10 remaining
WDAs that had not been completed, 4 were still blocked
due to open deficiencies that must be corrected before the
WDA can be attempted. However, the program did not
have time to fix the deficiencies, complete the remaining
WDAs and analyze them before finalizing Block 3FR6 in
late November for flight testing to begin in December 2016.
For example, recent F-35C flight testing to prepare for a
weapons event with the C-1 version of the Joint Stand-Off
Weapon (JSOW-C1) discovered weapon integration,
Pilot Vehicle Interface (PVI) and mission planning problems
that will prevent full Block 3F combat capability from
being delivered, if not corrected. These discoveries were
made too late to be included in the Block 3FR6 software,
the final planned increment of capability delivered to flight
test for SDD. Also, multiple changes are being made late
in Block 3F development to mission systems fire control
software to correct problems with the British AIM-132
Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM)
missile and Paveway IV bomb, changes which could affect
the U.S. AIM-9X air‑to‑air missile and GBU-31 laser-guided
bomb capabilities, and may require regression testing of the
U.S. weapons.
• Block 3F adds gun capability for all variants. The F-35A
gun is internal; the F-35B and F-35C each use a gun pod.
Ground firing tests have been completed on all variants;
only on the F-35A has initial flight testing of the gun been
accomplished. Early testing of the air-to-ground and
air-to-air symbology have led to discovery of deficiencies in
the gunsight and strafing symbology displayed in the pilot’s
helmet – deficiencies which may need to be addressed before
accuracy testing of the gun, aimed by the HMDS, can be
completed. Because of the late testing of the gun and the
likelihood of additional discoveries, the program’s ability
to deliver gun capability with Block 3F before IOT&E is at
risk, especially for the F-35B and F-35C.
Pilot Escape System
• The program completed pilot escape system qualification
testing in September 2016, which included a set of
modifications designed to reduce risk to pilots weighing less
than 136 pounds.
— Modifications include:
▪▪ Reduction in the weight of the pilot’s Generation III
Helmet Mounted Display System (HMDS), referred to
as the Gen III Lite HMDS
▪▪ Installation of a switch on the ejection seat which
allows lighter-weight pilots to select a slight delay in the
activation of the main parachute
▪▪ Addition of a Head Support Panel (HSP) between the
risers of the parachute.
— These modifications to the pilot escape system were
needed after testing in CY15 showed that the risk of
serious injury or death is greater for lighter-weight pilots.
Because of the risk, the Services decided to restrict pilots
weighing less than 136 pounds from flying the F-35.
• Twenty-two qualification test cases were completed
between October 2015 and September 2016, with variations
in manikin weight, speed, altitude, helmet size and
configuration, and seat switch setting. Data from tests
showed that the HSP significantly reduced neck loads
under conditions that forced the head backwards, inducing
a rearward neck rotation, during the ejection sequence.
Data also showed that the seat switch reduced the “opening
shock” by slightly delaying the main parachute for lighterweight
pilots at speeds greater than 160 knots. The extent
to which the risk has been reduced for lighter-weight pilots
(i.e., less than 136 pounds) by the modifications to the
escape system and helmet is still to be determined by a
safety analysis of the test data. If the Services accept the
risk associated with the modifications to the escape system
for the lighter-weight pilots, restrictions will likely remain in
effect until aircraft have the modified seat and the HSPs, and
until the lighter‑weight Gen III Lite helmets are procured and
delivered to the applicable pilots.
• Based on schedules for planned seat modifications,
production cut-in of the modified seat, and the planned
delivery of the Gen III Lite HMDS, the Air Force may be
able to reopen F-35 pilot training to lighter-weight pilots
(i.e., below 136 pounds) in early 2018. DOT&E is not aware
of the plans for the Marine Corps and the U.S. Navy to open
F-35 pilot training to the lighter-weight pilots.
• Part of the weight reduction to the Gen III Lite HMDS
involved removing one of the two installed visors (one
dark, one clear). As a result, pilots that will need to use
both visors during a mission (e.g., during transitions from
daytime to nighttime) will have to store the second visor in
the cockpit. However, there currently is not enough storage
space in the cockpit for the spare visor, so the program is
working a solution to address this problem.
• The program has yet to complete the additional testing and
analysis needed to determine the risk of pilots being harmed
by the Transparency Removal System (which shatters the
canopy first, allowing the seat and pilot to leave the aircraft)
during off-nominal ejections in other than ideal, stable
conditions (such as after battle damage or during out-ofcontrol
situations). Although the program completed an
off-nominal rocket sled test with the Transparency Removal
System in CY12, several aspects of the escape system have
changed since then (including significant changes to the
helmet) which warrant additional testing and analyses.
Joint Simulation Environment (JSE)
• JSE is a man-in-the-loop, F-35 mission systems software-inthe-
loop simulation being developed to meet the operational
test requirements for Block 3F IOT&E. However, multiple
aspects of the JSE development effort continue to fall
significantly behind schedule. The Program Office has been
negotiating with the contractor to receive the F-35 aircraft
and sensor models, referred to as “F-35 In A Box (IAB),”
but very limited progress was made in CY16. Also, delays
with security clearances for new personnel limited progress
on several aspects of the development and validation effort.
Although the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR)
government team has begun installing hardware on their
planned timeline (facilities, cockpits, etc.), the team’s
progress in integrating the many different models (i.e.,
multi‑spectral environment, threats, weapons) with F-35 IAB
has been severely limited, and the verification, validation and
accreditation of these models within JSE for use in IOT&E,
have effectively stalled. The F-35 program’s JSE schedule
indicates that it plans to provide a fully accredited simulation
for IOT&E use in May 2019; a schedule that carries high
risk of further slips without resolving these issues, and is
not credible. Without a high-fidelity simulation, the F-35
IOT&E will not be able to test the F-35’s full capabilities
against the full range of required threats and scenarios.
However, for the reasons above, it is now clear that the JSE
will not be available and accredited in time to support the
Block 3F IOT&E. Therefore, the recently approved IOT&E
detailed test design assumes only open-air flight testing will
be possible and attempts to mitigate the lack of an adequate
simulation environment as much as possible. In the unlikely
event the JSE is ready and accredited in time for IOT&E, the
test design has JSE scenarios that would be conducted.
Live Fire Test and Evaluation (LFT&E)
• The F-35 LFT&E program completed one major live fire test
series using an F-35C variant full-scale structural test article
(CG:0001). Preliminary test data analyses:
— Demonstrated the tolerance of the vertical tail attachments
to high-explosive incendiary (HEI) projectile threats
— Confirmed the tolerance of the aft boom structures to
Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) threats
— Demonstrated vulnerabilities to MANPADS-generated
fires in engine systems and aft fuel tanks. The data
will support a detailed assessment in 2017 of these
contributions to overall F-35 vulnerability.
• The test plan to assess chemical and biological
decontamination of pilot protective equipment is not
adequate; no plans have been made to test either the Gen II
or the Gen III HMDS. The Program Office is on track
to evaluate the chemical and biological agent protection
and decontamination systems in the full-up system-level
decontamination testing in FY17.
• The Navy conducted vulnerability testing of the F-35B
electrical and mission systems to electromagnetic pulses
(EMP).
• The 780th Test Squadron at Eglin AFB, Florida completed
ground-based lethality tests of the PGU-47/U Armor
Piercing High Explosive Incendiary with Tracer (APHEI-T)
round, also known as the Armor Piercing with Explosive
(APEX), against armored and technical vehicles, aircraft, and
personnel-in-the-open targets.
Suitability
• The operational suitability of all variants continues to be
less than desired by the Services. Operational and training
units must rely on contractor support and workarounds that
would be challenging to employ during combat operations.
In the past year some metrics of suitability performance have
shown improvement, while others have been flat or declined.
— Most metrics still remain below interim goals to achieve
acceptable suitability by the time the fleet accrues 200,000
flight hours, the benchmark set by the program and defined
in the Operational Requirements Document (ORD)
for the aircraft to meet reliability and maintainability
requirements.
— Reliability growth has stagnated and, as a result, it is
highly unlikely that the program will achieve the ORD
threshold requirements at maturity for the majority
of reliability metrics, most notably Mean Flight
Hours Between Critical Failures, without redesigning
components of the aircraft.
Autonomic Logistics Information System
• The program failed to release any new ALIS capability
in 2016, but did release two updates to the currently fielded
ALIS 2.0.1 software to address deficiencies and usability
shortfalls. The program planned to test and field ALIS 2.0.2,
including integration of propulsion data management, in
the summer of 2016, to support the Air Force declaration
of Initial Operational Capability; however, delays in
development and integration have pushed the testing and
fielding into 2017.
• Because of the delays with ALIS 2.0.2, Lockheed Martin
shifted personnel to support that product line development.
This caused delays in the development schedule of ALIS 3.0,
the last major SDD software release. The program
acknowledged in August 2016 that it could not execute the
ALIS 3.0 schedule and developed plans to restructure this
ALIS release and the remaining planned ALIS capabilities
into multiple releases, including some that will occur after
SDD completion.
— The program’s restructuring of the ALIS capability
delivery plan divided the planned capabilities and security
updates for ALIS into four more versions: one version for
SDD (ALIS 3.0), with what the Program Office considered
to be needed for IOT&E, and three additional software
releases intended to be fielded at 6-month intervals after
SDD completion, with the remaining content originally
planned for ALIS 3.0.
— The program plans to release software maintenance
updates midway between each of these four software
releases to address deficiencies and usability problems, but
these releases will not include new capabilities.
• The Air Force completed its first deployment of F-35A
aircraft using the modularized version of the ALIS squadron
hardware, called the Standard Operating Unit Version 2
(SOU v2), and software release 2.0.1 to Mountain Home
AFB, Idaho in February 2016. Difficulties integrating the
SOU v2 into the base network interfered with connectivity
between the SOU v2 and the Mountain Home-provided
workstations, but did not affect connectivity of the SOU v2
with the main Autonomic Logistics Operating Unit (ALOU)
in Fort Worth, Texas.
Air-Ship Integration and Ship Suitability
• The program completed the last two ship integration DT
periods in 2016 – both referred to as “DT-III” – one with
the F-35B in November aboard the amphibious assault ship
USS America, and one with the F-35C in August aboard the
aircraft carrier USS George Washington. Test objectives
included expanding the flight clearances for shipboard
operations with carriage of external weapons, night
operations, and Joint Precision Approach Landing System
(JPALS) integration testing. For both periods, operational
and test units accompanied the deployment to develop
concepts of operations for at-sea periods.
• The specialized secure space set aside for F-35-specific
mission planning and the required Offboard Mission
Support (OMS) workstations is likely unsuitable for regular
Air Combat Element (ACE) operations on the Landing
Helicopter Dock (LHD) and Landing Helicopter Assault
(LHA)-class assault ships with the standard complement
of six F-35B aircraft, let alone F-35B Heavy ACE
configurations with more aircraft. Similarly, for F-35C
operations onboard CVN, adequate secure spaces will be
needed to ensure planning and debriefing timelines support
carrier operations.
• The F-35C DT-III included external stores, including bombs,
but only pylons with no AIM-9X missiles on the outboard
stations (stations 1 and 11) due to the F-35C wingtip
structural deficiency. The U.S. Navy directed a proof-ofconcept
demonstration of an F-35C engine change while
underway, a process that took several days to complete.
ALIS was not installed on USS George Washington, so
reach-back via satellite link to the shore-based ALIS unit was
required, similar to previous F-35C test periods at sea, but
connectivity proved troublesome.
• The F-35B DT-III deployment included an engine
installation due to required maintenance, along with a lift fan
change proof‑of‑concept demonstration. The Marine Corps
deployed with an operational SOU v2 on USS America.
Cybersecurity Testing
• The JSF Operational Test Team (JOTT) continued to conduct
cybersecurity testing on F-35 systems, in partnership with
certified cybersecurity test organizations and personnel, and
in accordance with the cybersecurity strategy approved by
DOT&E in February 2015. In 2016, the JOTT conducted
adversarial assessments (AA) of the ALIS 2.0.1 SOU, also
known as the Squadron Kit, at Marine Corps Air Station
(MCAS) Yuma, Arizona, and the Central Point of Entry
(CPE) at Eglin AFB, Florida, completing testing that began
in the Fall of 2015. They also completed cooperative
vulnerability and penetration assessments (CVPA) of the
mission systems ALOU at Edwards AFB, California, used
to support developmental testing, and the operational ALOU
in Fort Worth, Texas. The JOTT, with support from the