F-35 Operational Utility Evaluation cancelled in favour of crashing through to some future stage in hope

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  1. This chart (thanks to David Archibald) speaks volumes about the increasing failure rate in F-35 evaluations over 20 years.

    Some copy n paste on the F-35 from the DOTE report – in the section headed “FY16 DOD PROGRAMS” starting pdf page 75
    F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
    Executive Summary
    Test Strategy, Planning, Activity, and Assessment
    • The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program Office (JPO)
    acknowledged in 2016 that schedule pressure exists for
    completing System Development and Demonstration (SDD)
    and starting Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (IOT&E)
    by August 2017, the planned date in JPO’s Integrated Master
    Schedule. In an effort to stay on schedule, JPO plans to
    reduce or truncate planned developmental testing (DT) in
    an effort to minimize delays and close out SDD as soon as
    possible. However, even with this risky, schedule-driven
    approach, multiple problems and delays make it clear that
    the program will not be able to start IOT&E with full combat
    capability until late CY18 or early CY19, at the soonest.
    These problems include:
    — Continued schedule delays in completing Block 3F
    mission systems development and flight testing, which
    DOT&E estimates will likely complete in July 2018
    — Delayed and incomplete Block 3F DT Weapons Delivery
    Accuracy (WDA) events and ongoing weapons integration
    issues
    — Continued delays in completing flight sciences test points,
    particularly those needed to clear the full F-35B Block 3F
    flight envelope, resulting in a phased release of Block 3F
    envelope across the variants, with the full Block 3F
    envelope for F-35B not being released until mid-CY18
    — Further delays in completing gun testing for all three
    variants and recently discovered gunsight deficiencies
    — Late availability of verified, validated and tested Block 3F
    Mission Data Loads (MDLs) for planned IOT&E and
    aircraft delivery dates; DOT&E estimates the first
    validated MDLs will not be available until June 2018
    — Continued shortfalls and delays with the Autonomic
    Logistics Information System (ALIS) and late delivery of
    ALIS version 3.0, the final planned version for SDD, at
    risk of slipping from early CY18 into mid-CY18
    — Significant, well-documented deficiencies; for hundreds
    of these, the program has no plan to adequately fix and
    verify with flight test within SDD; although it is common
    for programs to have unresolved deficiencies after
    development, the program must assess and mitigate the
    cumulative effects of these remaining deficiencies on F-35
    effectiveness and suitability prior to finalizing and fielding
    Block 3F
    — Overall ineffective operational performance with multiple
    key Block 3F capabilities delivered to date, relative to
    planned IOT&E scenarios which are based on various
    fielded threat laydowns
    — Continued low aircraft availability and no indications
    of significant improvement, especially for the early
    production lot IOT&E aircraft
    — Insufficient progress in verification of Joint Technical
    Data, particularly those for troubleshooting aircraft fault
    codes and for support equipment
    — Delays in completing the required extensive and
    time‑consuming modifications to the fleet of operational
    test aircraft which, if not mitigated with an executable plan
    and contract, could significantly delay the start of IOT&E
    — Insufficient progress in the following areas which are
    required for IOT&E:
    ▪▪ Development, integration, and testing of the Air-to-Air
    Range Infrastructure instrumentation into the F-35
    aircraft
    ▪▪ Flight testing to certify the Data Acquisition, Recording,
    and Telemetry pod throughout the full flight envelope
    ▪▪ Development of other models, including the Fusion
    Simulation Model, Virtual Threat Insertion table, and
    the Logistics Composite Model
    — Delays in providing training simulators in the Block 3F
    configuration to the initial training centers and operational
    locations
    • Based on these ongoing problems and delays, and including
    the required time for IOT&E spin-up, the program will not
    be ready to start IOT&E until late CY18, at the soonest, or
    more likely early CY19. In fact, IOT&E could be delayed
    to as late as CY20, depending on the completion of required
    modifications to the IOT&E aircraft.
    Progress in Developmental Testing
    • Mission Systems Testing
    — The program continues to pursue a cost- and
    schedule‑driven plan to delete planned mission systems
    DT points by using other test data for meeting test point
    objectives in order to accelerate SDD close-out. This
    plan, if not properly executed with applicable data, sufficient analytical rigor and statistical confidence, would
    shift significant risk to operational test (OT), Follow-on
    Modernization (FoM) and the warfighter.
    — This risky approach would also discard carefully planned
    build-up test content in the Test and Evaluation Master
    Plan (TEMP) and the Block 3F Joint Test Plan (JTP),
    content the program fully agreed was required when
    those documents were signed. The program plans to
    “quarantine” JTP build‑up test points, which are planned
    to be flown by the test centers, and instead skip ahead
    to complex graduation‑level Mission Effectiveness Risk
    Reduction test points, recently devised to quickly sample
    full Block 3F performance. Then, if any of the Block 3F
    functionality appears to work correctly during the complex
    test points, the program would delete the applicable
    underlying build-up test points for those capabilities and
    designate them as “no longer required.” However, the
    program must ensure the substitute data are applicable and
    provide sufficient statistical confidence that the test point
    objectives had been met prior to deleting any underlying
    build-up test points. While this approach may provide a
    quick sampling assessment of Block 3F capabilities, there
    are substantial risks. The multiple recent software versions
    for flight test may prevent the program from using data
    from older versions of software to count for baseline test
    point deletions because it may no longer be representative
    of Block 3F. The limited availability and high cost of
    Western Test Range periods, combined with high re-fly
    rates for test missions completed on the range, make it
    difficult for the program to efficiently conduct this testing.
    Finally, the most complex capabilities in Block 3F have
    only recently reached the level of maturity to allow them
    to be tested, and they are also some of the most difficult
    test points to execute (i.e., full Block 3F capabilities and
    flight envelope).
    — Historical experience indicates this approach, if not
    properly executed, may delay problem discoveries and
    increase the risk to completing SDD and increase the risk
    of failure in IOT&E (as well as, much more importantly, in
    combat). In fact, the program needs to allocate additional
    test points – which are not in its current plans – for
    characterization, root cause investigations, and correction
    of a large number of the open high-priority deficiencies
    and technical debt described later in this report. The
    completion of the planned baseline test points from
    the Block 3F JTP, along with correction or mitigation
    of significant deficiencies, is necessary to ensure full
    Block 3F capabilities are adequately tested and verified
    before IOT&E and, more importantly, before they are
    fielded for use in combat.
    — Until recently, the Program Office estimated that mission
    systems flight testing will complete in October 2017. It
    now acknowledges the risk that this testing may extend
    into early CY18.
    ▪▪ The October 2017 estimate was based on an inflated
    test point accomplishment rate and optimistically low regression and re-fly rates. The estimate also assumed
    that the Block 3FR6 software, delivered to flight test
    in December 2016, would have the maturity necessary
    to complete the remaining test points and meet
    specification requirements without requiring additional
    versions of software to address shortfalls in capability.
    However, this is highly unlikely, since several essential
    capabilities – including aimed gunshots and Air-to-Air
    Range Infrastructure – had not yet been flight tested
    or did not yet work properly when Block 3FR6 was
    released.
    ▪▪ The Services have designated 276 deficiencies in combat
    performance as “critical to correct” in Block 3F, but less
    than half of the critical deficiencies were addressed with
    attempted corrections in 3FR6.
    ▪▪ Independent estimates from other Pentagon staff
    agencies vary from March 2018 to July 2018 to
    complete mission systems testing – all based on the
    current number of test points remaining and actual
    historic regression and re-fly rates from the flight test
    program. Even these estimates are optimistic in that
    they account for only currently planned testing, which
    does not yet include the activities needed to correct the
    Services’ remaining high-priority deficiencies.
    • Flight sciences testing continues to be a source of significant
    discovery, another indication that the program is not nearing
    completion of development and readiness for IOT&E. For
    example:
    — Fatigue and migration of the attachment bushing in the
    joint between the vertical tail and the aircraft structure are
    occurring much earlier than planned in both the F-35A
    and F-35B, even with a newly designed joint developed to
    address shortfalls in the original design.
    — Excessive and premature wear on the hook point of the
    arresting gear on the F-35A, occuring as soon as after only
    one use, has caused the program to consider developing a
    more robust redesign.
    — Higher than predicted air flow temperatures were measured
    in the engine nacelle bay during flight testing in portions
    of the flight envelope under high dynamic pressure on both
    the F-35A and F-35C; thermal stress analyses are required
    to determine if airspeed restrictions will be needed in this
    portion of the flight envelope.
    — Overheating of the horizontal tail continued to cause
    damage, as was experienced on BF-3, one of the
    F-35B flight sciences test aircraft, while accelerating in
    afterburner to Mach 1.5 for a loads test point. The left
    horizontal inboard fairing surface reached temperatures
    that exceeded the design limit by a significant amount.
    Post‑flight inspections revealed de-bonding due to heat
    damage on the trailing edge of the horizontal tail surface
    and on the horizontal tail rear spar.
    — Vertical oscillations during F-35C catapult launches were
    reported by pilots as excessive, violent, and therefore a
    safety concern during this critical phase of flight. The
    program is still investigating alternatives to address this
    deficiency, which makes a solution in time for IOT&E and
    Navy fielding unlikely.
    Mission Data Load Development and Testing
    • Mission data files, which comprise MDLs, are essential to
    enable F-35 mission systems to function properly. Block 3F
    upgrades to the U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL) –
    where mission data files are developed, tested and validated
    for operational use – are late to meet the needs for Block
    3F production aircraft and IOT&E. These upgrades to the
    Block 3F configuration, including the associated mission
    data file generation tools, are necessary to enable the USRL
    to begin Block 3F mission data file development. In spite
    of the importance of the mission data to both IOT&E and
    to combat, the Program Office and Lockheed Martin have
    failed to manage, contract, and deliver the necessary USRL
    upgrades to the point that fully validated Block 3F MDLs
    will not be ready for IOT&E until June 2018, at the earliest.
    • Operational units are also affected by the capability shortfalls
    in the USRL to create, test and field MDLs. The complete
    set of Block 2B and Block 3i MDLs developed for overseas
    areas of responsibility (AORs) have yet to undergo the full
    set of lab and flight tests necessary to validate and verify
    these MDLs for operational use. Because of the delays
    in upgrading the USRL to the Block 3F configuration, the
    Services will likely not have Block 3F MDLs for overseas
    AORs until late 2018 or early 2019.
    • In addition to the late Block 3F USRL upgrades, the required
    signal generators for the USRL – with more high-fidelity
    channels to simulate modern fielded threats – have not yet
    been placed on contract. As a result, the Block 3F MDLs
    will not be tested and optimized to ensure the F-35 will
    be capable of detecting, locating, and identifying modern
    fielded threats until 2020, per a recent program schedule.
    The program is developing multiple laboratories in order
    to produce MDLs tailored for partner nation-unique
    requirements, some of which will have more high-fidelity
    signal generator channels earlier than the USRL. The
    program is considering using one of these other laboratories
    for Block 3F MDL development and testing; however,
    the MDL that will be used for IOT&E must be developed,
    verified, validated, and tested using operationally
    representative procedures, like the MDLs that will be
    developed for the operational aircraft in the USRL.
    Weapons Integration and Demonstration Events
    • Block 3F weapons delivery accuracy (WDA) events are
    not complete. These events, required by the TEMP, are key
    developmental test activities necessary to ensure the full
    fire-control capabilities support the “find, fix, track, target,
    engage, assess” kill chain. As of the end of November,
    only 5 of the 26 events (excluding the gun events) had been
    completed and fully analyzed. Several WDAs have revealed
    deficiencies and limitations to weapons employment (e.g.,
    AIM-9X seeker status tone problems and out-of-date launch
    zones for AIM-120 missiles). An additional 11 WDAs had
    occurred, but analyses were ongoing. Of the 10 remaining
    WDAs that had not been completed, 4 were still blocked
    due to open deficiencies that must be corrected before the
    WDA can be attempted. However, the program did not
    have time to fix the deficiencies, complete the remaining
    WDAs and analyze them before finalizing Block 3FR6 in
    late November for flight testing to begin in December 2016.
    For example, recent F-35C flight testing to prepare for a
    weapons event with the C-1 version of the Joint Stand-Off
    Weapon (JSOW-C1) discovered weapon integration,
    Pilot Vehicle Interface (PVI) and mission planning problems
    that will prevent full Block 3F combat capability from
    being delivered, if not corrected. These discoveries were
    made too late to be included in the Block 3FR6 software,
    the final planned increment of capability delivered to flight
    test for SDD. Also, multiple changes are being made late
    in Block 3F development to mission systems fire control
    software to correct problems with the British AIM-132
    Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM)
    missile and Paveway IV bomb, changes which could affect
    the U.S. AIM-9X air‑to‑air missile and GBU-31 laser-guided
    bomb capabilities, and may require regression testing of the
    U.S. weapons.
    • Block 3F adds gun capability for all variants. The F-35A
    gun is internal; the F-35B and F-35C each use a gun pod.
    Ground firing tests have been completed on all variants;
    only on the F-35A has initial flight testing of the gun been
    accomplished. Early testing of the air-to-ground and
    air-to-air symbology have led to discovery of deficiencies in
    the gunsight and strafing symbology displayed in the pilot’s
    helmet – deficiencies which may need to be addressed before
    accuracy testing of the gun, aimed by the HMDS, can be
    completed. Because of the late testing of the gun and the
    likelihood of additional discoveries, the program’s ability
    to deliver gun capability with Block 3F before IOT&E is at
    risk, especially for the F-35B and F-35C.
    Pilot Escape System
    • The program completed pilot escape system qualification
    testing in September 2016, which included a set of
    modifications designed to reduce risk to pilots weighing less
    than 136 pounds.
    — Modifications include:
    ▪▪ Reduction in the weight of the pilot’s Generation III
    Helmet Mounted Display System (HMDS), referred to
    as the Gen III Lite HMDS
    ▪▪ Installation of a switch on the ejection seat which
    allows lighter-weight pilots to select a slight delay in the
    activation of the main parachute
    ▪▪ Addition of a Head Support Panel (HSP) between the
    risers of the parachute.
    — These modifications to the pilot escape system were
    needed after testing in CY15 showed that the risk of
    serious injury or death is greater for lighter-weight pilots.
    Because of the risk, the Services decided to restrict pilots
    weighing less than 136 pounds from flying the F-35.
    • Twenty-two qualification test cases were completed
    between October 2015 and September 2016, with variations
    in manikin weight, speed, altitude, helmet size and
    configuration, and seat switch setting. Data from tests
    showed that the HSP significantly reduced neck loads
    under conditions that forced the head backwards, inducing
    a rearward neck rotation, during the ejection sequence.
    Data also showed that the seat switch reduced the “opening
    shock” by slightly delaying the main parachute for lighterweight
    pilots at speeds greater than 160 knots. The extent
    to which the risk has been reduced for lighter-weight pilots
    (i.e., less than 136 pounds) by the modifications to the
    escape system and helmet is still to be determined by a
    safety analysis of the test data. If the Services accept the
    risk associated with the modifications to the escape system
    for the lighter-weight pilots, restrictions will likely remain in
    effect until aircraft have the modified seat and the HSPs, and
    until the lighter‑weight Gen III Lite helmets are procured and
    delivered to the applicable pilots.
    • Based on schedules for planned seat modifications,
    production cut-in of the modified seat, and the planned
    delivery of the Gen III Lite HMDS, the Air Force may be
    able to reopen F-35 pilot training to lighter-weight pilots
    (i.e., below 136 pounds) in early 2018. DOT&E is not aware
    of the plans for the Marine Corps and the U.S. Navy to open
    F-35 pilot training to the lighter-weight pilots.
    • Part of the weight reduction to the Gen III Lite HMDS
    involved removing one of the two installed visors (one
    dark, one clear). As a result, pilots that will need to use
    both visors during a mission (e.g., during transitions from
    daytime to nighttime) will have to store the second visor in
    the cockpit. However, there currently is not enough storage
    space in the cockpit for the spare visor, so the program is
    working a solution to address this problem.
    • The program has yet to complete the additional testing and
    analysis needed to determine the risk of pilots being harmed
    by the Transparency Removal System (which shatters the
    canopy first, allowing the seat and pilot to leave the aircraft)
    during off-nominal ejections in other than ideal, stable
    conditions (such as after battle damage or during out-ofcontrol
    situations). Although the program completed an
    off-nominal rocket sled test with the Transparency Removal
    System in CY12, several aspects of the escape system have
    changed since then (including significant changes to the
    helmet) which warrant additional testing and analyses.
    Joint Simulation Environment (JSE)
    • JSE is a man-in-the-loop, F-35 mission systems software-inthe-
    loop simulation being developed to meet the operational
    test requirements for Block 3F IOT&E. However, multiple
    aspects of the JSE development effort continue to fall
    significantly behind schedule. The Program Office has been
    negotiating with the contractor to receive the F-35 aircraft
    and sensor models, referred to as “F-35 In A Box (IAB),”
    but very limited progress was made in CY16. Also, delays
    with security clearances for new personnel limited progress
    on several aspects of the development and validation effort.
    Although the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR)
    government team has begun installing hardware on their
    planned timeline (facilities, cockpits, etc.), the team’s
    progress in integrating the many different models (i.e.,
    multi‑spectral environment, threats, weapons) with F-35 IAB
    has been severely limited, and the verification, validation and
    accreditation of these models within JSE for use in IOT&E,
    have effectively stalled. The F-35 program’s JSE schedule
    indicates that it plans to provide a fully accredited simulation
    for IOT&E use in May 2019; a schedule that carries high
    risk of further slips without resolving these issues, and is
    not credible. Without a high-fidelity simulation, the F-35
    IOT&E will not be able to test the F-35’s full capabilities
    against the full range of required threats and scenarios.
    However, for the reasons above, it is now clear that the JSE
    will not be available and accredited in time to support the
    Block 3F IOT&E. Therefore, the recently approved IOT&E
    detailed test design assumes only open-air flight testing will
    be possible and attempts to mitigate the lack of an adequate
    simulation environment as much as possible. In the unlikely
    event the JSE is ready and accredited in time for IOT&E, the
    test design has JSE scenarios that would be conducted.
    Live Fire Test and Evaluation (LFT&E)
    • The F-35 LFT&E program completed one major live fire test
    series using an F-35C variant full-scale structural test article
    (CG:0001). Preliminary test data analyses:
    — Demonstrated the tolerance of the vertical tail attachments
    to high-explosive incendiary (HEI) projectile threats
    — Confirmed the tolerance of the aft boom structures to
    Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) threats
    — Demonstrated vulnerabilities to MANPADS-generated
    fires in engine systems and aft fuel tanks. The data
    will support a detailed assessment in 2017 of these
    contributions to overall F-35 vulnerability.
    • The test plan to assess chemical and biological
    decontamination of pilot protective equipment is not
    adequate; no plans have been made to test either the Gen II
    or the Gen III HMDS. The Program Office is on track
    to evaluate the chemical and biological agent protection
    and decontamination systems in the full-up system-level
    decontamination testing in FY17.
    • The Navy conducted vulnerability testing of the F-35B
    electrical and mission systems to electromagnetic pulses
    (EMP).
    • The 780th Test Squadron at Eglin AFB, Florida completed
    ground-based lethality tests of the PGU-47/U Armor
    Piercing High Explosive Incendiary with Tracer (APHEI-T)
    round, also known as the Armor Piercing with Explosive
    (APEX), against armored and technical vehicles, aircraft, and
    personnel-in-the-open targets.
    Suitability
    • The operational suitability of all variants continues to be
    less than desired by the Services. Operational and training
    units must rely on contractor support and workarounds that
    would be challenging to employ during combat operations.
    In the past year some metrics of suitability performance have
    shown improvement, while others have been flat or declined.
    — Most metrics still remain below interim goals to achieve
    acceptable suitability by the time the fleet accrues 200,000
    flight hours, the benchmark set by the program and defined
    in the Operational Requirements Document (ORD)
    for the aircraft to meet reliability and maintainability
    requirements.
    — Reliability growth has stagnated and, as a result, it is
    highly unlikely that the program will achieve the ORD
    threshold requirements at maturity for the majority
    of reliability metrics, most notably Mean Flight
    Hours Between Critical Failures, without redesigning
    components of the aircraft.
    Autonomic Logistics Information System
    • The program failed to release any new ALIS capability
    in 2016, but did release two updates to the currently fielded
    ALIS 2.0.1 software to address deficiencies and usability
    shortfalls. The program planned to test and field ALIS 2.0.2,
    including integration of propulsion data management, in
    the summer of 2016, to support the Air Force declaration
    of Initial Operational Capability; however, delays in
    development and integration have pushed the testing and
    fielding into 2017.
    • Because of the delays with ALIS 2.0.2, Lockheed Martin
    shifted personnel to support that product line development.
    This caused delays in the development schedule of ALIS 3.0,
    the last major SDD software release. The program
    acknowledged in August 2016 that it could not execute the
    ALIS 3.0 schedule and developed plans to restructure this
    ALIS release and the remaining planned ALIS capabilities
    into multiple releases, including some that will occur after
    SDD completion.
    — The program’s restructuring of the ALIS capability
    delivery plan divided the planned capabilities and security
    updates for ALIS into four more versions: one version for
    SDD (ALIS 3.0), with what the Program Office considered
    to be needed for IOT&E, and three additional software
    releases intended to be fielded at 6-month intervals after
    SDD completion, with the remaining content originally
    planned for ALIS 3.0.
    — The program plans to release software maintenance
    updates midway between each of these four software
    releases to address deficiencies and usability problems, but
    these releases will not include new capabilities.
    • The Air Force completed its first deployment of F-35A
    aircraft using the modularized version of the ALIS squadron
    hardware, called the Standard Operating Unit Version 2
    (SOU v2), and software release 2.0.1 to Mountain Home
    AFB, Idaho in February 2016. Difficulties integrating the
    SOU v2 into the base network interfered with connectivity
    between the SOU v2 and the Mountain Home-provided
    workstations, but did not affect connectivity of the SOU v2
    with the main Autonomic Logistics Operating Unit (ALOU)
    in Fort Worth, Texas.
    Air-Ship Integration and Ship Suitability
    • The program completed the last two ship integration DT
    periods in 2016 – both referred to as “DT-III” – one with
    the F-35B in November aboard the amphibious assault ship
    USS America, and one with the F-35C in August aboard the
    aircraft carrier USS George Washington. Test objectives
    included expanding the flight clearances for shipboard
    operations with carriage of external weapons, night
    operations, and Joint Precision Approach Landing System
    (JPALS) integration testing. For both periods, operational
    and test units accompanied the deployment to develop
    concepts of operations for at-sea periods.
    • The specialized secure space set aside for F-35-specific
    mission planning and the required Offboard Mission
    Support (OMS) workstations is likely unsuitable for regular
    Air Combat Element (ACE) operations on the Landing
    Helicopter Dock (LHD) and Landing Helicopter Assault
    (LHA)-class assault ships with the standard complement
    of six F-35B aircraft, let alone F-35B Heavy ACE
    configurations with more aircraft. Similarly, for F-35C
    operations onboard CVN, adequate secure spaces will be
    needed to ensure planning and debriefing timelines support
    carrier operations.
    • The F-35C DT-III included external stores, including bombs,
    but only pylons with no AIM-9X missiles on the outboard
    stations (stations 1 and 11) due to the F-35C wingtip
    structural deficiency. The U.S. Navy directed a proof-ofconcept
    demonstration of an F-35C engine change while
    underway, a process that took several days to complete.
    ALIS was not installed on USS George Washington, so
    reach-back via satellite link to the shore-based ALIS unit was
    required, similar to previous F-35C test periods at sea, but
    connectivity proved troublesome.
    • The F-35B DT-III deployment included an engine
    installation due to required maintenance, along with a lift fan
    change proof‑of‑concept demonstration. The Marine Corps
    deployed with an operational SOU v2 on USS America.
    Cybersecurity Testing
    • The JSF Operational Test Team (JOTT) continued to conduct
    cybersecurity testing on F-35 systems, in partnership with
    certified cybersecurity test organizations and personnel, and
    in accordance with the cybersecurity strategy approved by
    DOT&E in February 2015. In 2016, the JOTT conducted
    adversarial assessments (AA) of the ALIS 2.0.1 SOU, also
    known as the Squadron Kit, at Marine Corps Air Station
    (MCAS) Yuma, Arizona, and the Central Point of Entry
    (CPE) at Eglin AFB, Florida, completing testing that began
    in the Fall of 2015. They also completed cooperative
    vulnerability and penetration assessments (CVPA) of the
    mission systems ALOU at Edwards AFB, California, used
    to support developmental testing, and the operational ALOU
    in Fort Worth, Texas. The JOTT, with support from the

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