Main points are
[1] Victoria has diverged from the others over the last quarter. What could be driving Vic prices down towards levels of 2014-15?
[2] The other States prices are still way above levels of 2015.
AEMO Price & Demand — Generation at NemWatch
Two possibilities 1) lack of maintenance (costs) at Hazelwood before it closes. 2) the unions behaving themselves in an endeavour to maintain employment resulting in better run time, smoother running, less maintenance overtime etc
Remember demand is down in hols & weekends – working weekdays have the max base demand. So it is odd prices have not been quieter over hols.
Check price & demand –
www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#price-demand
Then Nemwatch gives you a generation snapshot –
reneweconomy.com.au/nem-watch/
Here you get average daily prices for current month
www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#average-price-table
last 2 days Vic prices have been trying to join the others.
If there is a SA wind drought late today they will have to scrape up a lot of gas-gen to feed demand well over 2,000MW and the interconnectors will be heating up. For SA wind – go here anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2017/january
then untick boxes to leave only SA ticked then tick MW in top right of chart. SA max wind gen is ~1,300MW.
Checking your links right now Qld looks to be generating sufficient surplus to be exporting some to NSW. NSW demand is 8500MW while generation is only 8100 so is probably importing from north and south. Vic price is $85 carrying on higher price trend of last few days and demand is 5400MW while generation is 7400MW so the surplus is probably propping up NSW and is of course available to export to SA and Tas if required. SA price is already $96 and the AEMO Price & Demand chart shows they are expecting a price holocaust late in the day when Adelaide is expecting weather of 40°.