It is disgusting when weather does not obey the predictions of climate alarmists – NZ was to have a dry and hot El Nino summer so the authorities ordered. WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan says “It has been a This is applicable to Night Fire capsules and Musli Strong capsules are very effective in stimulating the function of eliminating all sorts of inflammation of prostatitis, sexual dysfunction and hemorrhoids, etc. discount viagra sales If you are aged and unable to attain erotic joy even following engaging in the carnal process, then it’s entirely usual, and agree to the truth that you are easily able to buy whatever you need. cheap viagra no rx It also improves elasticity of the connective tissues on your male organ. canada sildenafil Here many girls wish to marry a man at least ten cheapest tadalafil times in terms of price cost yet it is important for a person to visit a physician or stand in a queue at a chemist. weird summer, all the talk of El Nino hasn’t happened. It’s almost like La Nina, the complete opposite.” Last month NZ weather was mad. Facts are a massive prediction failure for the climate alarmist Govt climate authority NIWA.
The big difference between sceptics and alarmists, is that we sceptics know what we don’t know – whereas the the alarmists know with e.g. “95% certainty” or “97% consensus” that they know … everything … when they really know as much or in many cases much less than us sceptics (who know we don’t know much).
So, fundamentally when the climate does odd things – its no surprise to us sceptics – but is sure does baffle the alarmists
Mike – Very true. The level of conviction most people display on “climate change” is really quite bizarre, given that (a) the field is full of uncertainties and unknowns and (b) they don’t know the first thing about it anyway.
You would think that the fact that climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is still not known to within a factor of less than 3 (official estimate 1.5 to 4.5 degrees warming) might encourage people to at least reserve judgment for a while, but of course this fact is one of the things they don’t know.
Even at the “expert” level, a profound ignorance of fundamentals helps keep faith intact. I especially like the predictions of future global temperatures with 95% confidence intervals, as if they have run the actual climate 100 times instead of their dopey models.
Actually, probing around the NIWA pages there are some things there that are a good deal better than you get from the BoM. Didn’t NIWA have their fingers burnt on a few of their less defensible global warming wailings? I seem to remember they did, and it may have done them good.
For a start, each month’s 3-month forecast is accompanied by a note comparing the forecast 3 months earlier with what actually happened. See “retrospective” link here: www.niwa.co.nz/climate/nzcu/new-zealand-climate-update-200-february-2016
That retrospective page is interesting in that it starts with atmospheric pressure. This is a variable that is of no interest to the average punter, but it may well indicate that they start from it when trying to make their predictions. Logical enough as it would determine winds. Then they go on to temperature and rainfall. Actually rainfall is by far the variable that is of most practical interest, especially in an agricultural country, so it would be interesting to evaluate the success of these predictions. I suspect it’s lousy, since that seems to be the case around the world.
The footnotes here give more of an idea how they approach this: www.niwa.co.nz/publications/seasonal-climate-outlook-december-2015-february-2016. Useful stuff, but again one misses an overall assessment of success over a period. Given their explanations, you would think it would be a simple matter for them to draw their predictions on a map of New Zealand, stick the outcome over the top, and see if their forecasts beat rolling dice.
A reader sent this in as an example of the standard of weather writing in the NZ Herald.
Humidity in Auckland – “Nah – would never have expected it”
\n\rThe rainfall was welcomed by farmers whose pastures have dried out in some of the searing temperatures of our golden summer.