Poor old BoM seldom takes a trick – make your own temperature maps – make your own Outlook maps.
The BoM predicted cool over SE SA, west Vic through Tas and all that turned out warm. The main BoM predicted cool spot was the Pilbara coast and that too turned out warm. They predicted heat on the entire Eastern seaboard but that was mainly average to not very warm. Vast areas of WA and NT predicted warm but turned out cool – long range forecasting is a bitch. Only win I can see is the far north tropics.
BoM should abandon these Outlooks and save some money for taxpayers.
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and real world below
Geez, this one is particularly bad, isn’t it?
The BoM will say the maps are only probabilities. Fair enough, but at least the extreme probabilities should tell you something, otherwise the maps are completely useless, you might as well toss a coin
On the January prediction map, the only places they are really confident it’s going to be cold are the western coasts of Tasmania and Victoria, stretching a little into the far south coast of South Australia. But what’s the result? – clearly warmer than usual over the whole area. By contrast, the most extreme anamoly on the map of actual temperatures was the cold spot on the West Australian coast around Exmouth – where they were pretty sure it was going to be warmer than usual!