Like many I noticed Prince Charles repeating the claim that climate change is responsible for the rise of Islamic State.
Looking for rain data history at KNMI Climate Explorer I found the only monthly data that made charts for Syria was the “monthly CRU TS3.23 precipitation Syria Index”.
and below expressed as anomalies
The BBC has an interesting Syria profile – Timeline on the last hundred years history of Syria. Andrew Bolt has a post on the story – The science says Prince Charles is a fool to blame global warming for the Islamic State – and Euan Mearns also has – Drought, Climate, War, Terrorism, and Syria.
Turkey has just shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter that was presumably annoying the Turkmen who live very close to the Syria-Turkey border and are no fans of President Assad. While all this is in motion the Kurds Peshmerga forces assisted by western airstrikes are methodically joining the dots towards a new Kurdistan in NE Syria and Iraq. What a maelstrom of diverse competing forces.
The Express article (first link) is worth reading in full, as it shows in miniature the cocktail of sloppy logic and unshakeable preconceptions that typify your average global warming enthusiast.
His Royal Highness starts from something that might be true: The drought that ravaged the country for more than five years has led to conflict and terrorism, he said.
But that’s not what needs proving. Syria is a dry country and has had droughts since time immemorial. There is no evidence that man-made greenhouse gases have made Syria’s droughts worse; in fact there is no evidence those droughts ARE worse.
But Chas’s wrongtious indignation button has already been pressed and off he goes:
“It sounds awful to say, but some of us were saying 20 something years ago that if we didn’t tackle these issues you would see ever greater conflict over scarce resources and ever greater difficulties over drought.
“If we just leave it and say, well there are obviously lots of problems arising all over the place, therefore we deal with them in a short-term way, we never deal with the underlying root cause.”
Charles said it was vital to invest in protecting the planet amid fears “nature’s bank” – like the banks in the financial crisis – was at risk of “going bust”.
He raised fears that we are headed towards climate “chaos”. Charles will deliver a speech at the climate conference in Paris next Monday.
“I try to be as optimistic as possible,” he said. “The difficulty is that by the time you try to take action, it’s already too late.”
Well it’s too late for him to see sense, and certainly not by next Monday…
Warwick, Pierre Gosselin had a story on the so-called drought in Syria here notrickszone.com/2015/11/15/veteran-meteorologist-says-john-kerrys-climate-change-drought-causing-refugees-noise-completely-false/
The blame for the mess in the middle east goes a long way back. After, WW2 Britain & USA had much influence in splitting up Palestine and forming Israel. France was miffed because they always harbored ambition in Egypt and the middle east after Napolean. Do you remember the Suez Crisis where the French interferred? The French again stirred the pot by encouraging Ayatollah Khomeini while in France during his exile. Khomeini was a pusher of Sharia Law which is one of the wishes of ISIS. The Shah of Persia (Iran) tried to modernise, educated and emancipated women, but he got no backing from USA or Europe who to some extent were still worried by the cold war with Russia. USA has never been good at politics, nor have they any good military leadership. The only thing they have is military technology but they have lots of companies that want profits and looks of crooks who are prepared to sell their technology. Israel, Pakistan and India acquired nuclear technology and now Obama wants to let Iran have it.
David Archibald pointed out the level of food insecurity in MENA in a recent book, with some countries importing 30 – 50% .
It is an ugly mess – too many agendas – too much un reasoned emotion & too many people playing games for money & power.
Cement – I thought it was mainly the US and UN that “pulled the rug” from under the Brits and French at Suez – is this timeline a fair summary?
www.bodley.ox.ac.uk/dept/scwmss/projects/suez/suez.html
I have a book – No End of a Lesson .. The story of Suez by Anthony Nutting. At one point before the landings the French seemed more resolute to act than the Brits.
Warwick, to some extent the players in the Suez Crisis mirror the problems in Syria. First, is a strongman in Egypt (Nasser) wanted to increase water storage and supply electricity in his country -the Aswan dam. US & UK were going to finance it but reneged and then USSR stepped in to get more influence. Oil was an influence on UK and France who wanted to control the Suez canal. There was weak and poor foreign policy in UK ( under the hopeless Eden) and weak and distracted leadership in US. USSR vetoed at the UN UK & French proposal to takeover control of the canal. As indicated before the French have wanted to be an influence in the Middle East since Napolean, remember they used to have a presence in Lebanon which had French as their language. They also used to occupy Algeria &Tunisia. Another player that should not be forgotten is the Germans in Turkey. They helped the Turks fight against Russia and Turkey was on their side in WW1.