Remember on 12th May 2015 the Bureau of Meteorology BoM suddenly called an El Nino as being on for 2015. I thought at the time it was a sudden jumping on board the El Nino express for the BoM in the wake of NOAA’s earlier determination to have an El Nino. We have heard various newsmakers and groups Cut open the sachet and squeeze out the content in your mouth. Ashwagandha roots when used regularly helps to improve tadalafil pharmacy online the capacity to hold longer. Generally people do not want to disclose about this particular problem to anybody and especially to the doctor to get an alternative medicines to treat erectile dysfunction. viagra wholesale india This is because excessive intake of the medicine cheap levitra energyhealingforeveryone.com results in side effects and infections. calling for an El Nino over 16 months now.
Anyway – take a look at the SOI – which has been rising since 26th May. And am I seeing easterly winds here.
Lets just say it is a sputtering start if a real El Nino is to develop.
I am not predicting anything – just pointing out real world data –
The BoM has been itching to jump for a long time and as you say, the SOI has been positive for a week, although up and down as is usual. A few weeks ago Climate, etc. reported that the anchovy off Peru week still feeding, so the BoM may have made a premature jump into the deep end. The link:
I have been looking at past monthly SOI data on the Long Paddock site (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php) there is a limit to the period of negative SOI relating to past El Ninos. I think that period is just about up and that there could be a new period of positive SOI approaching which could mean a La Nina.
El Nono …
Warwick
C’mon – I know you don’t have any meteorological knowledge – but surely a little bit of research could have helped you out here.
The MJO is in moderate to high amplitude phase 1 state www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ . That consequentially implies an easterly wind anomaly and a higher SOI.
If you’d wanted to do a thorough analysis why not show what happened to SOIs back in 1997 as that year’s major El Nino started .
1997 312 1013.88 1013.30 -14.58
1997 313 1014.80 1012.05 -0.82
1997 314 1016.20 1011.90 9.03
1997 315 1016.32 1012.60 5.37
1997 316 1016.17 1012.55 4.74
1997 317 1016.97 1011.25 18.09
1997 318 1016.71 1010.60 20.56
1997 319 1016.05 1010.35 17.94
1997 320 1015.12 1010.65 10.15
1997 321 1014.40 1010.20 8.40
1997 322 1013.91 1011.10 -0.43
1997 323 1012.97 1010.90 -5.14
1997 324 1012.96 1012.10 -12.83
1997 325 1012.00 1011.65 -16.10
1997 326 1011.41 1010.45 -12.20
1997 327 1010.93 1009.40 -8.54
I know you can do better Warwick.
George [yes there will be an el nino this year] Bailley
Warwick (repost without link)
C’mon – I know you don’t have any meteorological knowledge – but surely a little bit of research could have helped you out here.
The MJO is in moderate to high amplitude phase 1 state . That consequentially implies an easterly wind anomaly and a higher SOI.
If you’d wanted to do a thorough analysis why not show what happened back in 1997 as that year’s major El Nino started .
1997 312 1013.88 1013.30 -14.58
1997 313 1014.80 1012.05 -0.82
1997 314 1016.20 1011.90 9.03
1997 315 1016.32 1012.60 5.37
1997 316 1016.17 1012.55 4.74
1997 317 1016.97 1011.25 18.09
1997 318 1016.71 1010.60 20.56
1997 319 1016.05 1010.35 17.94
1997 320 1015.12 1010.65 10.15
1997 321 1014.40 1010.20 8.40
1997 322 1013.91 1011.10 -0.43
1997 323 1012.97 1010.90 -5.14
1997 324 1012.96 1012.10 -12.83
1997 325 1012.00 1011.65 -16.10
1997 326 1011.41 1010.45 -12.20
1997 327 1010.93 1009.40 -8.54
George (yes there will be an el nino this year) Bailley
Warwick (re-repost without links and suspect words!)
I know you don’t have any meteorological knowledge – but surely a little bit of research could have helped out here.
The MJO is in a moderate to high amplitude phase 1 state . That consequentially implies an easterly wind anomaly and a higher SOI.
If you want to do a thorough analysis why not show what happened back in 1997 as that year’s major El Nino started .
1997 312 1013.88 1013.30 -14.58
1997 313 1014.80 1012.05 -0.82
1997 314 1016.20 1011.90 9.03
1997 315 1016.32 1012.60 5.37
1997 316 1016.17 1012.55 4.74
1997 317 1016.97 1011.25 18.09
1997 318 1016.71 1010.60 20.56
1997 319 1016.05 1010.35 17.94
1997 320 1015.12 1010.65 10.15
1997 321 1014.40 1010.20 8.40
1997 322 1013.91 1011.10 -0.43
1997 323 1012.97 1010.90 -5.14
1997 324 1012.96 1012.10 -12.83
George (yes there will be an el nino this year) Bailley
Warwick (re-re-post)
C’mon – I know you don’t have any meteorological knowledge – but surely a little bit of research could have helped you out here.
The MJO is in moderate to high amplitude phase 1 state . That consequentially implies an easterly wind anomaly and a higher SOI.
If you’d wanted to do a thorough analysis why not show what happened back in 1997 as that year’s major El Nino started .
1997 312 1013.88 1013.30 14.58
1997 313 1014.80 1012.05 0.82
1997 314 1016.20 1011.90 9.03
1997 315 1016.32 1012.60 5.37
1997 316 1016.17 1012.55 4.74
1997 317 1016.97 1011.25 18.09
1997 318 1016.71 1010.60 20.56
1997 319 1016.05 1010.35 17.94
1997 320 1015.12 1010.65 10.15
1997 321 1014.40 1010.20 8.40
1997 322 1013.91 1011.10 0.43
1997 323 1012.97 1010.90 5.14
1997 324 1012.96 1012.10 12.83
1997 325 1012.00 1011.65 16.10
1997 326 1011.41 1010.45 12.20
1997 327 1010.93 1009.40 8.54
George (yes there will be an el nino this year) Bailley
If one looks at the graph of SOI for 1997-1998 (an El Nino period), it will be seen that there are 14 months of continuous negative values of which 12 are below -10. Now look at the graph for 2014-2015. there are so far 12 months of continuous values zero or negative of these only 3 are -10 or below -10 including the last value for May. For the first 4 days of June the SOI is positive. It is possible that the average SOI for June will be negative but there is a high probability that by September the present negative SOI period will be over and no El Nino.
Warwick (re-re-re-repost without link or data)
I know you don’t have any meteorological knowledge – but surely a little bit of research could have helped you out here.
The MJO is in moderate to high amplitude phase 1 state . That consequentially implies an easterly wind anomaly and a higher SOI.
If cementafriend had taken the time to look at the daily values he (she) might find out that excursion into the +20’s occurred during the 1997 event.
George
Meanwhile the 30 day SOI is rising towards zero and even the 90 day SOI is outside El Nino thresholds.
The saying goes – there is no show without Punch – likewise there will be no El Nino with the SOI like it is. Notwithstanding what the various $Billion north hemisphere groups want to name this or that.
Equatorial winds are still easterly as I just looked –
Hi Warwick
I’m not sure how inserting some science/basic meteorology into your web page will go – but I’m prepared to give it a bash once again.
As you know the MJO is in a high amplitude state and is now moving through phase 3 : www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif.small.gif
When we look at how the daily SOI varies by high amplitude MJO phase we see the following (using Long Paddock SOI since 1991, BoM MJO data with a May, June, July mask where amplitude > 1.0):
phase average daily soi
1 -1.91
2 1.57
3 5.85
4 0.52
5 -9.92
6 -8.19
7 -9.93
8 -12.90
Over the next few weeks the MJO will transit around to phase 5 and 6. Expect to see the average SOI to drop by 10 to 15 units over that period.
Or are you punting on an La Nina? That’s as likely as 2015 not being a record (or near record) warm year.
George
Warwick
Whilst I have your attention – why are you attempting to measure an oceanic event with an atmospheric metric?
You do realise that El Nino / La Nina events are designated by sea surface temperatures – not atmospheric pressures – don’t you?
Kind regards – your guiding light in atmospheric science – George