NOAA: Elusive El Niño arrives – While the 30 day SOI is near neutral?
In view that NOAA and many other IPCC compliant spokes-folks have been calling an El Nino for a year now – it would appear that instead of quietly walking away whistling from their stone dead failed prediction and getting on with more useful work for USA taxpayers – NOAA has decided to use their prestige to say El Nino is here anyway. Crazy – but this is one of the effects of the IPCC on climate science.
Yes Warwick, here is the graph from the Long Paddock www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php
The SOI for February was zero about the graph shows it rapidly rising (+ve means cooler and maybe more rain for the Qld coast)
Some things can be said with certainty –
if you keep on predicting an El Nino –
one WILL eventually arrive –
someday –
By contrast look at the graph of SOI for the year 2010 (graph covering 2009 to 2011) www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=2010 and note the big floods in Brisbane and further north in January 2011 (also all time record rain for Dec 2010) which BOM did not predict although obvious that SOI was +ve. The Qld government and BOM were still taking note of Flannery’s prediction that drought was the norm and “even if it rained the dams would not fill”
I reported on BoM Outlook failures for spring 2010
#5 BoM Spring Outlooks – rain and temperature – more hopelessly wrong models
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=712
Ahh, the unpredicted floods of 2010/2011, when sea levels fell:
www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/23/australian-floods-global-sea-level
97% certified post ad-hoc settled climate science.
The BoM should be proud.
Now the ABC reports on the NOAA claim – an expert is quoted saying the BoM has 8 models – little of any import can be said – but we are sending experts to Paris to address the IPCC.
A delayed El Nino has now started, according to US forecasters.
www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-06/weak-el-nino-begins/6285056
It makes ya proud to be a taxpayer.