Maps tell the story – first the Outlook prediction for a hot January
Then the real world result.
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I do not know why taxpayers money is wasted making proclamations that so often turn out worthless. Time Series Graph Jan max t anomaly
tell them ”to predict” which number on the lottery will win every week – it’s much easier, than ”predicting” localizes temperature 6 months in advance!
Just checked the NSW Jan 2015 summary at the BoM. Despite Upper Darling District (48) and districts 52 and 53 being below average, lo and behold, a section in that area is shaded as above average. I checked nearby Qld stations (Cunnamulla and Thargominda) but they are below average as well.
The BoM did a botched job of this for NSW in Oct – does this happen everywhere?
Check here at www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/summary.shtml
The comment section of these videos below is disabled but it is possible to click on the thumbs down. To be fair in the earlier one he does explain how it could go wrong and in both they claim moderate accuracy. Also note the arrow on the rainfall deficiency map and his words are almost instantly visually contradicted by the drought map that follows (At 0:48). There may not be a contradiction if we read up on what the maps mean (i think there is) but the viewer is unaware. In this one he does explain how it could go wrong and end up with floods. At (2:59) he states how these forecasts that they get wrong tell them things. Just like voices in their heads?youtu.be/dwsXguP9zrk
youtu.be/TvGaA3_RblA
Hmmm. Must need to leave a blank line before a video link.
It is very clear that rain and clouds affects temperatures. BOM should throw away their models. Start by predicting some rain and overcast weather from pressure differentials and unstable conditions driven by winds. (I see tonight on the ABC that they are actually putting numbers -500mm, on predicted rain up on the north east Qld coast and giving flood warnings -probably exaggerated) Then predict temperature taking into account rain. Their models should drop CO2 out altogether. CO2 has no effect on rain and no effect on temperatures. CO2 actually lags temperatures.