In the great tradition of countless IPCC climate conferences – at a time EU economies are in deep doldrums – while global temperature has not risen in 18 years – and at a time when Germany electricity generators are increasing coal use – and when France says it will cut back on electricity from nuclear generation – and when the shortcomings of wind & solar inducing extra risks to power grids are increasingly becoming obvious to anybody with normal reasoning powers – the EU twists arms to produce this agreement on a distant fantasy.
And major political parties wonder why they are losing support.
Emissions data from – Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy
From the graph it is obvious that the EU has managed to reduce emissions since 2007 thanks??? to a deep recession; although that term seems inadequate to describe the damage in Greece, Spain, Portugal and ireland.
So what better way to reduce emissions that by a full blown disastrous collapse in every countries economy? Trying to bring about this proposed reduction in emissions, and the accompanying rise in “renewable” energy to 27% of the total, is very likely to do just that. The EU would split apart under such pressure. So, do we conclude that the EU bureaucrats are lunatics, trying to become unemployed and powerless? Or could it be purely for show?
The 40% figure is not binding on any country, just an ‘overall’ figure for the EU. Equally increasing the ‘renewable’ energy share is unlikely to be acted on by any politicians who understand the German energy mess. Since Denmark, Holland, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal have all ruled out new wind farms, and Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania all opposed the measures at the start as they are more concerned with increasing their economy, it is hard to see much progress in increasing ‘renewables’. Only France, the UK and Sweden seem enthusiastic, not to say stupid enough to do anything.
I think that this is merely the start of a retreat from lunacy. NOTe the clause making the idea dependent on agreement at the Paris Conference in Nov./Dec. 2015. There won’t be any such agreement, so the EU will be able to say that there is no point in going it alone, and drop all support for green lunacies. Well, one can hope.
Warwick,
Reports vary and several say that details are being left deliberately vague to leave negotiating room, but it seems from some of them that the projected cuts will not be as drastic as in your graph. The target is a 40% reduction, not reduction to 40% of the 1990 level, so that the aim in 2030 would be more like 3.8 billion tonnes than 2.9 billion.
See Grauniad version here: www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/24/eu-leaders-agree-to-cut-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-40-by-2030
Even so, this is dumb in so many ways. CO2 clearly does not have the strong warming effect many had thought. Europe, even all 28 countries, will probably account for less than 10 per cent of world emissions anyway by 2030. The money-go-round to buy off Poland and other coal-dependent countries will be expensive, and Europe is practically broke already. The whole thing is a distraction from the huge economic, financial and social problems of major European countries, and will if anything make these harder to solve.
Thanks Dave – chart corrected –
Thanks wazsah. Your correction is correct – the numbers I quoted were only higher because they were based on the Grauniad graph, which is in CO2 equivalent for all gases, not just CO2.
Your new pink curve looks vaguely plausible given the figures for just the last 3 years, and who knows, if the Europeans continue in or near recesssion for the next decade and a half they might get all the emissions cuts they desire. They are helping themselves along to this “solution” in so many ways – encouraging waste on wind and solar, emission regulations, intra-EU compensation payments, and many other measures that sap energy out of the economy (bike lanes to clog the traffic, half a dozen types of rubbish collection, gold-plated insulation rules, excessive reporting burdens on emissions, stupid tax breaks for greenhouse-virtuous behaviour etc. etc.).