Interesting with all the BoM publicity about Autumn and May breaking warm records – the BoM Outlooks for Autumn turned out so dud.
Trying out animations – first maxtemp Outlook plus resulting real world anomaly.
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Make temperature anomaly maps here
I wish the BoM would stop abusing statistics. Those % probabilities are nothing of the sort. They are like the IPCC probabilities, merely the opinion of persons unknown, and run through the models which are wholely deterministic.
As for the fail on the seasonal forecast. Well guess the forecast for parts of the east and VIC were ok
But really, does anyone follow those anymore?
DECILES for may 2014
picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/TEMPERATURE2014#6020240345400778562
Australia has been in a band of Global High pressure anomaly from at least Dec 2013 and into May 2014
picasaweb.google.com/110600540172511797362/MSLP#6020248373150846402
Also of note is the strong sub -tropical jet stream and the VERY weak zonal sub polar Jetstream which we need to send the cooler air up on the mainland.
Here’s hoping for some change to this synoptic pattern soon