We have all heard media blah about the warm May in Sydney such as this today in the SMH – Sydney’s balmy autumn breaks temperature records –
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has just issued – Special Climate Statement 49 – an exceptionally prolonged autumn warm spell over much of Australia –
On page 5 of SCS 49 the BoM make an explicit connection between Australian warming and “…warming….for the globe…”.
Now I have not got a fraction of the computing power or resources, time etc that the BoM has – so I just want to illustrate my point by reference to the records quoted for Giles station 13017 in the BoM Table 2 – Records set at ACORN-SAT locations for the greatest number of consecutive days with minimum temperatures at or above the listed threshold in the period 1 May to 30 June.
Here is the BoM claim for Giles –
But to put May minimum temperatures at Giles in better perspective – here is my table showing Giles May minimums have been warmer several times in the recent past.
So the BoM claims for Giles in their Table 2 do not amount to a cupful of warm spit in terms of global warming – or Australian warming for that matter.
Hoping readers can checkout other examples.
I wonder what this BoM Special Climate Statement 49 cost – what staff hours went into it?
Some of these places have had warmer May temp means but lack of data (i.e. daily temps missing) preclude making fair comparisons for consecutive days.
But at least the BoM blames the warm spell on a blocking Tasman high (no direct mention of CO2). See what the media do with that explanation.
However, just three years ago we had the coldest autumn since 1950.
www.bom.gov.au/clim,ate/current/statements/scs33.pdf
What goes around, comes around.
Also interesting is that since we have had the ACORN data, we have had the hottest day, month, season and year, all within the time it was introduced in early 2012.
Looking deeper into Table 2 which records the BoM record days at 11 localities – we find that only three Forrest, Tarcoola and Oodnadatta had record mean mins in May 2014. My point here is that the BoM report is a special CLIMATE statement – yet the BoM is listing record days when in eight out of eleven cases no record month was recorded. Clearly the BoM is confusing weather and climate.
Perth Airport – Mean Min May 2014; 11.8 – many warmer May months – 2005; 13.9, 2003; 12.7, 1999; 12.8, 1998; 12.2, 1988; 12.1, 1984; 12.1, 1963; 12.7, 1962; 11.9.
Cape Leeuwin – Mean Min May 2014; 15.4, warmer in 2005; 15.8,
Esperance – Mean Min May 2014; 12.7, a record for May at Esperance town although data only started in 1970.
let’s check the more rural airport –
Esperance Aero station 9542 – Mean Min May 2014; 11.6, warmer in 2005; 11.9, 1999; 11.7, 1998; 12.2,
So how desperate is the BoM to quote the more urban town data and ignore the more rural Airport numbers?
Forrest 11052 – Mean Min May 2014; 11.5, beats the 2005 record by 0.1°
Tarcoola and Oodnadatta had record mean mins in May 2014
Wilsons Prom 85096 – Mean Min May 2014; 13.3 which was = to May 1988 but May 1967 read 13.6.
Melbourne Regional Office 86071 – Mean Min May 2014; 11.1 but even in the face of urban warming growth two previous months were warmer – 2007; 12.6, 1988; 11.6,
Laverton RAAF 87031 – Mean Min May 2014; 9.3 but May was warmer in 2007; 11.5, 1978; 9.5, 1975; 9.4, 1974; 9.5 and 1958; 9.4.
Launceston Airport 91311 – – Mean Min May 2014; 4.9, which only commenced in 2004 had 2007 at 7.2
Launceston Airport Comparison 91104 has many warmer Mays stretching back to 7.0 in 1939.
Looking into the BoM Table 1 which is similar to Table 2 but deals with maximum temperature over various periods of days shorter than a month. I have not got time to check every station in the BoM list but of the 21 cities and well known sites I checked – Sydney, Gunnedah, Birdsville and Ceduna all had records in mean max for May 2014. Ceduna was less than robust because Streaky Bay did not see the record warm May 2014.
So for 17 stations out of 21 – May 2014 was cooler than some past May – contrary to the cherry picked shorter periods of days quoted by the BoM in their Table 1. I have marked these a fail.
Hobart 94029 – 15.6 – 17.3 highest 2007 fail
Cape Otway 90015 – 17.0 – 17.1 in 2007 – 19 max fail
Laverton 87031 – 18.8 – 19.4 in 1947 highest fail – 18.8 1980
Melbourne Regional Office 86071 – 19.3 – 2007 19.6 fail
Wilsons Prom 85096 – 17.1 – 17.5 highest fail – 17.3 2007
Gabo Island 84016 – 19.1 – 21.1 highest fail – 19.2 2007
Mildura 76031 – 21.2 – highest 22.3 in 1947 fail – 21.5 2005
Richmond RAAF 67105/67033 – 22.2 – 22.8 highest 1958 fail Sydney western suburbs
Sydney Observatory Hill May 2014 was all time warmest – largest Australian urban heat island.
Moruya Heads Pilot Station 69018 – 21.0 – 26.2 highest May fail – 21.0 2007 & 1910
Deniliquin 74128/74258 – 20.1 – 20.5 highest at Airport in 2005 fail
Williamtown RAAF 61078 – 22.3 – 22.3 = 2007 fail
Gunnedah Resource Centre 55024 – 26.3 in May was a record.
Walgett 52026/52088 – 24.2 – 24.4 highest at Airport in 2007 fail
Chareville Aero 44021 – 26.0 – highest 26.5 in 1958 fail
Cape Moreton Lighthouse 40043 – 23.1 – 24.0 highest 2007 fail
Birdsville Airport 038026/38002 – 28.0 – 27.5 in 2007 so May 2014 was a record.
Adelaide Kent Town 23090 – 20.6 – but 20.9 in 2005 fail
Ceduna AMO 18012 – 23.5 – 23.3 highest since 1942 so May 2014 was a record. But maybe Ceduna record not so robust because of Streaky Bay in 1934 –
Streaky Bay 018079 – 22.5 – 23.2 highest in 1934 fail
Oodnadatta Airport 017043 – 25.6 – 26.2 highest in 1958 fail
Esperance 9789 – 21.5 – 22.8 highest in 1983 fail
Esperance Aero 9542 – 21.5 – 22.8 highest in 2002 confirms Esperance fail