This long term rainfall trend for the Uriarra district west of Canberra near dam catchments indicates that the low rain period starting 2001 is nothing exceptional and could well represent a return to the pre 1945 lower rainfall regime. Contrary to the thrust of conclusions from CSIRO climate modelling.
There is no evidence linking the rain trend to some over-arching force of climate change. It is obvious that natural cycles dominate the graphic. Link to more detailed comments on wrong directions in Govt water policy for Canberra.
Looks like the worst droughts are during strong El Ninos. As for the late 90s, early 00s decline, there were certainly a series of Ninos – now that we may have incurred a PDO flip and may be in a La Nina favoring period, it will be interesting to monitor the trend.
See this interesting site with a downloadable report into the Canberra water supply.
canberrawaterusers.007sites.com/