The IPCC and its exaggerated scenarios for future sea levels.
This is a figure from page 16 of the 20 page booklet “THE GREATEST LIE EVER TOLD” by Dr Nils-Axel Mörner and available from him for $15. Email: morner AT pog.nu
The book explains the sea level history of the Maldives and many other issues.
In view of the discussion I have added the first three figures from the book. You get a lot more if you buy the book.
The first lists the multiplicity of factors affecting sea level and shorelines.
The second compares observations and models over time.
The third illustrates eustatic variables.
There is also a review of Dr Mörner’s book by Prof. Cliff Ollier in Word doc format.
Issues normally brushed aside by AGW True Believers, vis a vis reputed “killer MSL rise:”
1) Most tide gages fixed to substrate and measure differential movement between top of the sediment column / crust at the time of gage placement and true MSL.
2) Many populated coastal areas subject to anthropenically induced subsidence due to ground water mining and other liquid and gas extraction activities.
3) Newer “fool proof” satellite based telemetry has its own error factors, which, due to the newness of the methodology, are still not all known.
4) The preponderance of tide gages (from a standpoint of % of gages versus world total) are located on te shores of the North Atlantic, and therefore, per item #1, experience the innate crustal subsidence of the North Atlantic’s passive margins.
5) MSL trend still includes a component of the Great Melt. Although most of the actual solid-liquid phase change of the Great Melt is over, waters initially freed in boggy lands on cratons (for example, Canadian Shield, parts of NE Europe / Scandanavia) take thousands of years to drain to ocean, resulting in a delayed “coda” of the Great Melt.
6) Changes in overall available volume of ocean basins contribute to realized form factor of sea water masses – Pacific Basin, Mediterranean Basin, Caribbean Basin and others are in compression.
7) Angular momentum of water masses is a function of orbital and inter-solar-system-body gravitational dynamics which is still not adequately characterized.
Etc, etc, etc.
I will concede that there may be an AGW component of MSL’s realized profile, but what is it? No one knows.
Steve, you missed out one of the main causes of sea level changes, tectonic forces, which predominate in the places where the alarmists say we are seeing AGW caused rising sea levels, like the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Thailand. Then there is settling of volcanic deposits causing the land to lower, which affects volcanic islands like those in the Pacific where sea level rises are supposedly making islands uninhabitable.
In a sea of dubious and outright fraudulent claims for the effects of global warming, the examples given of AGW caused sea level rises stand out as particularly fraudulent.
RE: #2 – please see items 1, 4, and 6. All of them allude to issues due to tectonics. ( Perhaps that was lost in my writing style – my brain was fried by Dr. Atwater back in the day … I sometimes assume a bit too much in terms of “tribal knowledge” of tectonics …LOL! )
I have added 3 more Figures from the book and also a review by Prof Cliff Ollier.
I comment again here because Warwick refers to Prof Ollier in the last comment
From the Australian Climate Science Coalition
www.auscsc.org.au/
NO CAUSE FOR ALARM
Posted: 13th November 2010
Professor Cliff Ollier critiques a recent article at OnLine Opinion. Of particluar interest is the highlighting of the alarmist theories accepted by the Victorian government in their Future Coasts program. the result of which is affecting real people now in Victoria and their plans for the future.
“John Le Mesurier’s recent article in On Line Opinion, “The Creeping Menace”, re-hashes the alarmism about rising sea levels. Much has happened, however, since Al Gore scared the world with visions of metre high seas flooding New York.
First, there is still no proof the Earth is experiencing “dangerous” warming. Temperatures have levelled off since 1998. Many measuring locations are also located in unsuitable areas. Furthermore, the methodologies of averaging temperature are inconsistent and full of problems. This is why “Global Warming” was replaced as a slogan by “Climate Change” (nobody denies that climate changes), and more recently by “Climate Disruption” (which is impossible define or prove).”
Link to the article