Atmospheric science, IPCC

Astronomically-based climate model versus the IPCC (2007) climate models

3 Comments

Download the very readable 4.2Mb paper “Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models”
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3 thoughts on “Astronomically-based climate model versus the IPCC (2007) climate models”

  1. for temperature enthusiasts I came across this recent paper
    mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35565/1/Climate_Change_and_Hockey_Stick.pdf
    Guido Travaglini

    part of the abstract

    The goal of this paper is to test on a millennial scale the magnitude of the recent warmth period,
    known as the “hockey-stick”, and the relevance of the causative anthropogenic climate change
    hypothesis advanced by several academics and worldwide institutions. A select batch of ten longterm
    climate proxies, included in the NOAA 92 PCN dataset all of which running well into the
    nineties, is updated to the year 2011 by means of a Time-Varying Parameter Kalman Filter SISO
    model for state prediction. This procedure is applied by appropriately selecting as observable one
    out of the HADSST2 and of the HADCRUT3 series of instrumental temperature anomalies
    available since the year 1850. The updated proxy series are thereafter individually tested for the
    values and time location of their four maximum non-neighboring attained temperatures.

    part of the conclusion:

    Several climatologists and the IPCC have since long maintained that the RWP is an
    unprecedented phenomenon in the climatic history of the Earth by featuring the “hockey stick”
    hypothesis and the associated anthropogenic origin. This purported evidence is put to test by
    utilizing a select batch of ten millennial-scale climate proxies, included in the NOAA 92 PCN
    dataset, and updated to the year 2011 by means of a TVP-KF model for state prediction. The
    observable utilized therein is the HADCRUT3vNH series of instrumental temperature anomalies
    available since the year 1850.
    Out of ten series, only three significantly do not refute the hypothesis, while the others point
    to different maximum temperature dates, mostly included in the MWP.

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