Once again 3 months of real weather has shown the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Outlook predictions produced every month looking ahead three months – are mostly wrong.
In the first panel I compare the Maximum Temperature Outlook on the left with real world weather result to the right. The SE and Tasmania was predicted to have warm days but failed with cool anomalies ruling. The warmth in SW WA was unsuspected by the BoM. Also the focus of cool anomalies in the NW of Australia was also completely missed by the BoM model.
Obviously the predicted cool patch in Eastern Australia would score some points out of the result – but I think on balance a less than 50% score.
The Minimum Temperature result is far worse with the model predicting anomalously warm nights over vast areas of the continent – except for a cool patch in the NW.
As we see in the right hand map, in fact the vast majority of Australia enjoyed anomalously cool nights – exactly opposite to BoM model expectations – and the deepest cool anomaly was over Queensland, not the NW. I would estimate this score at well under 50%.
Note the BoM media release about the record cold autumn, possibly a 94 year record since 1917.
This isn’t the first time a cool trend or record shows the same disparity between day and night temperatures.
“Australia’s daytime temperatures for the 12 months to May 2011 were the coolest since 1950, 0.83°C below average, with night time temperatures for the same period almost 0.1°C degrees above average.”Issued: 2PM, Wednesday 01 June 2011 MEDIA RELEASE BoM
Could this simply be an indication that the UHI reductions are incorrect for night temperatures?
So far this year it appears Australia’s minimum temp is about 0.2C below average and maximum temp is about 1.0C below average.
Minimum mean anomalies have dropped every month since January. Australia’s May minimum anomaly was actually lower than the maximum anomaly (-1.75C as against -1.33C). This may be due to the breakdown of the La Nina which would bring drier conditions at night.
There was Julia Gillard and Bob Hawke… Kakadu report in hand… another great big scare of the destruction of Kakadu from rising sea level caused by climate change i.e. catastrophic global warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions from human activity.
Simply incredible!!!
Yet on 31 May 2011, The Age reported “Darwin and other parts of Northern Australia have just had their coldest May on record.”
Read more: www.theage.com.au/national/coldest-may-on-record-for-darwin-20110531-1fe1x.html#ixzz1ODRdzNRz
Darwin and other parts of the NT also had a cooler than usual wet season with lots of cloud cover and rain.
How can this be? This also follows one of the most bitterly cold northern hemisphere winters experienced since the 1800s.
But hang on… carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise. The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase. Yet atmospheric temperature is not obeying the IPCC’s mantra. Mother Nature is doing the opposite to what global warming alarmists have been promoting.
The fact is that over the last 10 to 15 year, there has been no discernible warming, and the satellite temperature record reveals a slight cooling trend over the last 10 years.
The world’s most foremost sea level expert, Dr Nils-Axel Morner, has studied the subject of sea level for three decades visiting every corner of the globe. He has demonstrated that there is no discernible rise in sea level, and any such risk in the future is too insignificant to worry. The alarm is only through computer model-based predictions. But model-based predictions do not represent science… like his science which has been based on real world observational data.
But here’s the real knock out punch… the real truth about rising sea level comes from Europe’s Envisat satellite that has been collecting data since 2004, and now shows that sea level is the lowest it has been since they started collecting data.
stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/27/sea-level-plummeting-lowest-level-since-at-least-2004/
So who is spreading the bullshit? None other than Julia Gillard… our dishonest Prime Minister!
Gidday Tom Morgan – You say in comment 1 – “Could this simply be an indication that the UHI reductions are incorrect for night temperatures?”
Can you please tell us what “UHI reductions” you are referring to ? Thanks.
As the ice melts, the land rises. It rises faster than the sea water so we need to add another 3mm per year to the sea-level over and above its natural level. Anyway, that’s the version given to us by:-
www.livescience.com/6462-greenland-rising-rapidly-ice-melts.html
You can’t beat ’em.
Richard Kelly has been checking on BoM weather forecasts for Brisbane – he is not very impressed and sent me a report of his to post here, “Predictions Forecasts or Just Pure Guesses”
well i could be waaay off here,but, i had always assumed uhi effect was taken into consideration by the bom when reporting on any long term temperature trend. I read on this site that the bom had calculated in the 90’s that sydney had an average uhi effect of at least 1.4 degrees.
If the calculations to adjust current temperature averages for uhi effect, (so they can be used in long term trends,) were constant,(such as 1.4c) then i would assume the disparity between day and night uhi effect would show itself as the disparity between day and night long term averages.
Tom – you saw “..i had always assumed uhi effect was taken into consideration by the bom when reporting on any long term temperature trend.” First – the models used to make the Outlooks are nothing to do with observations.
I do not think the BoM uses Sydney as a guide to long term trends – but they never spoke up about Jones using Sydney. They do seem blind to sl lesser UHI in places like Canberra – and more subtle UHI signal in smaller town data in their official Australian trend 1910-2010. Yet there has been research by BoM people proving UHI influence in v small places. But BoM has not ever starting correcting for UHI in its published trends. So there is mucho speaking with forked tongues. All things to all people.
Warwick- have you looked at the tables near the end.
They state “The cool conditions experienced in autumn 2011 are largely a result of the strong 2010/11 La Niña event which brought heavy rainfall and cool daytime temperatures to Australia,” AND “Historically La Niña events result in above average rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures over large parts of Australia”.
From the tables
SA has above average rainfall and cooler temperatures.
VIC has about average rainfall and cooler temperatures.
WA has below average rainfall and cooler temperatures.
TAS has record low rainfall and temperatures, the same or slightly cooler.
I don’t think that they have proved that it is due to La Niña.