Monthly Archives: September 2016

BoM Australia, Urban Heat Islands

Perth heading for coldest September since at least 1906

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Chris Gillham in Perth has been monitoring mean daily temperatures at Perth BoM sites and says Perth Airport 9021 is a shoo-in to have the coldest September mean since opening in 1944. Perth Metro 9225 in Mount Lawley has only been open from Jan 1994 replaced Perth Regional Office 9034 which commenced 1897 and underwent various moves before ending up in East Perth. Progress with temperature updates can be checked at AWN or the BoM.
Chris has a page discussing the history of various Perth weather stations since 1897. I will update as the final numbers are available and hope to include other Perth region sites such as Pearce – Jandakot – Medina etc It is amazing we can have a month like this in the teeth of the vast Perth urban heat island.

Renewable Energy, Resources

Shut Hazelwood coal fired generators – what could go wrong

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The weekend has seen a welter of speculation about the closure of Hazelwood neatly timed with a report by the Grattan Institute titled – Keeping the lights on. Victoria has the following coal fired generators – Hazelwood 1600MW –
Loy Yang A 2180MW – Loy Yang B 1000MW – Yallourn W 1450MW
Total 6230MW = possible max 149,520MWhrs per day
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This chart of Vic daily generation by source (omits solar) shows the current dominance of coal – for large chart. I have marked with the pink X where a horizontal line would be drawn at 111,530MWhrs per day. So just below that would mark 111,120MWhrs per day. Without some way of replacing the reliable 1600MW capacity of Hazelwood – it seems amazing that the media run with this fairy-story.

BoM Australia

BoM max temperature Outlook for September heading for fails

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A large percentage of Australia was predicted to have hotter than normal days this month –

as Sep counts down keep a watch on how different areas are trending.
Using the easy to access AWN monthly data it looks as though the following areas will need a late Sep heatwave to avoid the Outlook failing.
For example Tasmania, Adelaide, Ceduna, Alice Springs, Perth, Kalgoorlie region, Giles region, Kimberley, Cape York.
You can also compare with weekly max temp anomalies through this month – which show substantial green or neutral areas. You should be able to see maps for the weeks ending 6th, 13th and 20th Sep.
Here are the 4 weekly max anomaly maps starting 6th Sep 16
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13th Sep 16

20th Sep 16

27th Sep 16

Water

BoM Outlook for September predicted average zone rain for flooded areas of western Victoria

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There have been misleading comments on TV news implying that BoM rain Outlooks predicted the heavy September rain in western Victoria that has caused flooding around Coleraine and Hamilton. This is not so as is shown on the September rain Outlook map below.

In the flooded zones the prediction was for 50-55% chance of exceeding the median rain.

BoM Australia, Water

Perth dam catchments rainfall – how much is that?

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It is obvious that BoM and Water Corporation rain stations are low down in catchments near the various dams –

convenient near roads and easy for staff to monitor. Click on Select Using Map – Large areas of the catchments are not monitored by BoM rainfall stations. In 1997 this contour map showed annual average rain for SW WA – the rain numbers would have been heavily influenced by pre 1975 higher level rainfall. It would be helpful if the WA Govt or BoM could redo the map using post-1975 rainfall – which is vastly more relevant to water supply issues than pining after pre-1975 numbers.
The WA Dept of Food & Agriculture have a www site for their own network of weather stations – which in many cases also report to the BoM pages – for example the daily rain maps.
Last week I noticed that the DAFWA station Glen Eagle near the Albany Highway between the Canning and Wungong catchments has recorded the stunning total of 1280mm for the year to date.

Perhaps it is at a higher altitude – will try and find out. GE only commenced in August 2015 – I assume DAFWA checks the calibration of their instruments.
Here is my table of catchment stations with 2016 rain totals updated through August.

The zeros & blanks need urgent attention from the BoM and some monthly totals from Water Corp need examination.
The WA Dept of Water has a large network of stations in the catchments but most seem to be discontinued. Here is a map of their stations – Set Site Category to Meteorological.

I checked a string along the Brookton Highway and none was current – it is time consuming to check. Who knows what useful data they may have. We need all data public to audit and produce a better record of catchment rain.