Over at Catallaxy they had the fortitude to read through Julia Gillard’s long article justifying her term in office. – Julia Gillard writes on power, purpose and Labor’s future

[For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change, and when the drought broke their concerns about climate change receded. The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate” fed scepticism. Then, at the worst time, the structure of the Australian electricity market delivered huge rises to the electricity bills of families. While cost of living pressures were easing in other parts of the family budget, the pain of these big lumpy bills was acute and remembered.]

I think Julia Gillard is wrong when she says “For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change,…”
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Most Australians were also well aware that Govt funded scientists who should have known better – were linking the drought to “IPCC climate change” – and these views linking the “worst ever drought” to IPCC AGW were given prominence across much of our media.
So when the drought broke in 2010 the “lack of clothing” on these royal scientific opportunists was obvious to many.
“The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate”….” very likely fed into the rise of scepticism in Australia.

Up for discussion – will add more today

For those overseas not familiar with quirks of politics downunder –
Australian Labor Party – similar to British Labour party or left wing of USA Democrats.
“Coalition” refers to a right of centre grouping of the Liberal and National Parties and all their divers variations. The Nationals have their origins in an earlier Country Party.
Greens I think all should understand – usually to the left of Labor in the political spectrum and Labor and the Greens have a policy of exchanging preference votes.
The Democrats were a centrist group of voters who could not decide between the two major parties.
Some comments – the dying of the Democrats corresponds to some extent with the rise of the Greens – so it is possible that the peak Green vote in recent years around 2010 was inflated by some of these centrist people who might have departed the Greens in 2013.
Labors decline from 2007 to 2010 might have been partly due to their left wing turning to the Greens. However it is not so easy to speculate on what has happened in the 2013 Election on 7 September 2013 as both the Green and Labor votes are down by a similar amount.
So we are forced to conclude that about ~3 per 100 voters left the greens for Labor – while at the same time ~6 per 100 voters left Labor for other berths to the right of Labor.
The 2013 election has seen the rise of the centrist to right of centre Palmer United Party with 5.6% of primary votes which could give them a couple of Lower House seats as well as two Senate seats – in Australia close contests often take two weeks to resolve due to the 13 day wait for postal and absentee votes to trickle in and for preferences to be distributed.
The big question – “what is so wrong with Labor that their vote is in such decline?”
IMHO the answer is in these areas –
Trade Unions finance the Labor Party and expect huge influence in return.
This leads to strong Union influence over all candidate preselections – which means most Labor MP’s are either ex Union officials or Labor/Union lawyers. To win back more primary votes Labor needs to reform in a direction away from Unions – IMHO.
There have been some odd features of the 2013 Federal election – not the least has been the Greens preference deals with Palmer United Party – Clive Palmer getting his wealth through his ownership of coal mines. Work that one out.
Just to give a taste of the variety of Senate candidates and the problems of working out where your vote might end up under various preference deals – this useful article tries to explain. – Why you should take time and vote below the line. Of course voting below the line on the NSW Senate papers requires you to fill in 110 preferences in order, with v few errors.
So to some extent Australian electoral procedures have got near the crazy stage.
No wonder that in NSW a Senator has been assisted into the Senate by the famous “Donkey Vote” which comes about by some voters just putting a 1 in the first space.
I like the sense of humour from Tim Blair – EVERYBODY WINS A PRIZE