Large proportions of Maori owned land (>60%) are steep and hilly and susceptible to damage from high intensity rainstorms and erosion; while low-land plains and terraces are vulnerable to flooding and high sedimentation (Harmsworth and Raynor, 2005; King et al., 2010).
Can somebody tell the IPCC that “low-land plains” are FORMED by floods over the aeons. Rivers and creeks flood and carry sediment out over bordering lands. This sediment drops out of suspension to form a new soil layer. A process that has been repeating since the beginning of time. You can not have “low-land plains” without occasional flooding and associated sedimentation.
Saw this gem headlined – Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK’s icy blast – which contrives to blame cold wintry conditions on warming without mentioning (in 475 words), that the temperature fluctuations in the stratosphere are associated with migration of the jetstream.
But if you listen to the video explanation by Peter Gibb you will see he does refer to the polar jet.
BBC readers in a hurry who just scan the headline and move on without taking time to watch the video could take away a message that would please the IPCC.
Sydney was forecast to have 39 degrees but enjoyed a day around 31 degrees. HT Tim Blair. A huge 8 degrees forecast error. Several other centres had unusual large errors too which are on this map.
Last month I noticed the BoM tended to over-egg forecast warmth.
On 27 Nov the BoM warned of a widespread, severe heatwave – turned out a short heatwave Apart from numerous myths and facts tadalafil canada www.icks.org/html/03_conference.php?seq=28 you find over internet regarding masturbation here are a few from sexologist desk. a) Masturbation is safest form of sex. What symptoms do you usually encounter? Sharp bouts of pain and sudden cramps is how this wonderful medicine works for an ED person. ? The side-effects occurred by the medicine has been clinically proven to be safe for reproductive health and your love-life too. Additionally, the very trauma of going through some levitra prices major surgery can actually lead to stress that directly interferes with sexual function. And some, such as nandrolone (Deca-Durabolin) and trenbolone (Parabolan or Finapliks) converted to progesterone (also a female hormone, sildenafil pills icks.org/n/data/ijks/2019-2.pdf estrogen derivative). BoM exaggerated Brisbane heatwave – and it was only a “one day wonder”
and from early December
Massive failure in BoM forecast temperatures Sydney and SE regions
Just to repeat what I have said earlier – I do not expect exact forecast accuracy – we know that is not possible – but if the BoM was not biased then errors would fall equally warm and cool.
Saw this headline – Australia getting hotter with greater risk of heatwaves: Climate Commission.
So I checked what the gold plated measure of Global Warming had to tell us. Annual data for the CRUTem3 land only dataset covering the Australian region 10 to 45 South and 110 to 155 East, updated through November last. Looks like this.
Clearly NO global warming was impacting Australia up till end November last – periods in the 1880’s and pre-1920 exceed recent warmth – since mid 2010 our temperatures have been mostly moderate. I will update this post as fresh data comes in for CRUTem3.
To allow us a peep at temperature anomalies for Australia in the lower troposphere from NASA satellites – we have this global map showing the anomaly for 2012 – note Australia is an utter non-event, mostly cooling, if anybody is thinking, “Global Warming impacting Australia”. Then we have a similar map for December 2012, same story, Australia is a non-starter re Global Warming. Satellite LT temperature archives.
Not everybody is putting up with heat waves.
– China’s Extreme Cold Snaps Records
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– Mercury dips even lower
BBC here – posted by the UKMO on Christmas Eve – a huge departure from their forecast of a year ago – thanks to Wayback machine.
I have stiched together the two forecasts so readers can best see the huge difference.
One point puzzles me and that is the difference in the white curves after 2007, marked on my graphic as 07. UKMO says – “Previous predictions starting from June 1960, 1965, …, 2005 are shown as white curves,..”. OK but is anybody aware that the post 2007 downturn was ever published as a forecast ?
The above little comparison shows the difference in the white curves better. UK MP Mr Graham Stringer gives his views on the UKMO Christmas revision.
Experienced solar observers have been predicting the solar max for Cycle 24 will be around May this year.
That may turn out what happens and we have a “rabbit ears” pattern formed. Time will tell but just now who would bet on it ?
My earlier posts on Cycle 24 which extend back to late 2006.
The Bureau of Meteorology through the media is prone to quote the 46.4 degrees temperature recorded in central Melbourne on that day – also spruiked as all time Melbourne hot day. Although what exact relevance the temperature in the middle of the huge and growing Melbourne urban heat island (UHI) has to conditions on the fire grounds – I do not know.
It is worth remembering that the maximum temperature at Kilmore Gap on Black Saturday was 42.7 – that is the nearest recording available to where a power line failure ignited the Kilmore fire – which amidst Govt Fire Authorities confusion – birthed the Black Saturday disaster. Continue reading At a time of bushfires in the news – a reminder about facts of Black Saturday 7 Feb 2009 temperatures→
I am asking about air tankers on the scale of the P-3 Orion, or DC-10 or Boeing 747, people may know of others, does anybody know the whereabouts of any of these aircraft ? Who controls their use ? Thinking of the disastrous Dunalley fire SE of Hobart Friday 4 Jan 13. ABC map of Dunalley fire.
Can people please post any links to dated photos of fixed wing air tankers working this month – thanks.
Added after posting: The answer here seems to be – there are none. Great photo of BAe-146 air tanker dropping fire retardant in California. So with all our wealth in Australia we go into a summer without any medium & large air tankers. I wonder who decided this ?
Back to the Dunalley fire – here is the Dunalley fire smoke plume on weather radar from midday until 5pm – judging from the first smoke signal ignition was before 1pm – note local time is in the lower left where it says (Updated on Server) UTC is GMT I think.
Table below shows Dunalley weather from BoM site in town. Temperature is first column – the next 4 cols are not vital then the last 3 cols are wind direction, wind speed and wind gusts in km hour.
Dunalley Timeline – work in progress
[1] Ignition likely near ~midday as radar shows first smoke pixel at 12.54pm. Most fires do not make enough smoke to show a signal on radar – and wind was fairly quiet so fire was probably not making sufficient smoke to be detected by radar for an hour or so until 1pm.
[2] Temperatures at Dunalley at time of ignition were only 30 to 35 degrees – see above screen save from BoM page. The time prior to 2pm was the window of opportunity for an aerial attack to suppress this fire.
[3] Note in the table how wind and temperature increased sharply between 1.51 and 1.57pm which fits exactly the time radar shows the smoke signal rapidly increasing. From that time on the fire would have quickly become more difficult to suppress.
[4] The passage of the fire in Dunalley is shown by the 54.9 and 49.9 temperatures at 4.22 & 4.23pm.
Question I am interested in is – “what were authorities doing from midday till 2pm when the fire in relatively quiet winds should have been easiest to put out”
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations
