After more than a week of scaremongering media about the rapidly decaying “heatwave” – the Victorian Alps get a dusting of snow last night. And Canberra wakes to learn the night touched an all-time record low temperature for December – plus there were snowfalls on the Brindabella Range. Goulburn and Braidwood also had record cold nights. Gotta love weather.

For many centres it was a one day wonder – although record heat was felt at Mildura and in that region on the 29th. But how quickly we forget our history – just compare Mildura in 1894 and 1902 with 2012. 1894 saw 4 days strait over 40 while 1902 saw 12 days over 40 incl 4 strait. 2012 only had 1 day over 40 – 2 if you count the 39.8 near miss as a 40. So that is 2 in 2012 vs 12 in 1902 – no contest.

Find early daily data at this BoM site
Over enthusiasm for the prospect of some hotter days lead the BoM to exaggerate forecasts for a week or so as this “widespread, severe heatwave” decayed and cooled very rapidly. See my earlier posts re Canberra region — Sydney — and Brisbane.

It puzzles me that recent Brisbane forecasts have all been inaccurate with the errors being the same way – forecasts are too hot. I do not expect exact forecasts but I expect errors should be roughly even both ways. Media claptrap about a “heatwave” has been apparent since late November heat built in the centre culminating in the all time record hot November day of 45.5 degrees at Mildura on the 29 November. This heat spread south east, east and north-east but the intensity decayed quicker than the BoM forecast – see my earlier post re forecast failures for Sydney and Canberra.
Date Brisbane Forecast – Brisbane Weather
27-Nov——- 30 ——-29.4
28-Nov——- 32 ——-30.3
29-Nov——- 31 ——-29.9
30-Nov——- 32 ——-30.6
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2-Dec——– 32 ——-29.8
3-Dec——– 33 ——-31
4-Dec——– 39 ——-37.9
Brisbane media Dec 2nd and on the 3rd

Friday night I started thinking the forecasts for Saturday max’s looked a trifle optimistic – so Saturday morning I kept a screen dump of Sydney region forecast max. I have just added what look to be the max’s from this BoM page. The BoM has access to more detailed data so numbers will change slightly.

Results from the regions seem similarly skewed too hot, forecast number from Canberra Times first then reality.
Canberra 33 — 30
Goulburn 35 — 29.1 Airport
Cooma 30 — 27 Airport
Wagga 34 — 28.5
Hay 34 — 32.5 Airport
BrokenHill 32 — 30.3 Airport
Dubbo 41 — 39
Bourke 43 — 41.8
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But of course all the TV News weather people quote the original forecast numbers as though they actually happened.
Added Sunday early am: Friday results were pretty poor too.
Goulburn 36 — 33.6 Airport
Cooma 33 — 28.2 Airport
Wagga 39 — 35
Albury 39 — 34
Hay 40 — 36.7 Airport
BrokenHill 40 — 36.2 Airport
Mildura 34 — 31.5
SwanHill 35 — 33