Forecasts on Guardian 21Dec18 – Christmas Eve ABC warnings – Let’s run some checks. BTW – The 30 day SOI is near +10 so we are not in an El Nino.
Forecasts on Guardian 21Dec18 – Christmas Eve ABC warnings – Let’s run some checks. BTW – The 30 day SOI is near +10 so we are not in an El Nino.
In a later report in the Guardian the article claims;
‘…….. with the town of Fitzroy Crossing expecting a maximum of 47C, breaking the previous annual record of 46.5C, which was set earlier this month.’
FC highest max temp was in Jan, 1969 with a 47.9C. It also had a 46.5C in Dec, 1966.
They only looked at the FC Aero which opened in 1999.
The ABC says in its report;
‘It will be the first time that Mildura, on the Murray River in Victoria’s north-west, has had six consecutive December days above 40C, with the previous record of five days set in 1931.’
In 1939, Mildura had 9 consecutive days of +40C in both Jan and again in Feb.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1939&p_c=-1157766079&p_stn_num=076077
Fact check needed.
Whoops. Missed Dec consecutive days.
“Fact check needed.” Don’t rely on the ABC
“It will be the first time that Mildura, on the Murray River in Victoria’s north-west, has had five consecutive December days above 40C, with the previous record of five days set in 1931.”
Seems a bit of an odd statement.
How can it be the “first time” when it happened in 1931.
Looking at the data, the 27/12/1931 is 40.0 (so not technically “above 40”) and it is in italics, apparently because it was a 2 day repeat (anywhere there is a repeat reading they seem to italicise it, as being unreliable)
So you could say it was 6 days into the 40s.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1931&p_c=-1157767369&p_stn_num=076077
Anyway I would be willing to bet it won’t be into the 40s for 5 days, like they are predicting.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1931&p_c=-1157768663&p_stn_num=076077
Even when their alarmist forecasts don’t come pass, as often they don’t, they still achieve the prominent scary news they seek Jeff. And when was the last time you saw the BOM held to account for their regular forecast errors?
As Bob says, the BoM gets alarmist coverage even for forecasts, whether they come true or not.
Also notice how they cherry-pick. So this would be the first time that six days in a row are over 40 in December in Mildura – if it happens. But there have been five days in a row in December, and nine days in a row in both January and February. And they don’t mention average daily, monthly or yearly tempertures, or highest minima, or temperatures anywhere else, or State records etc. etc. Save those possibilities for next year….
This sort of cherry-picking reminds me of the number of conditions Daffy Duck used to put on his insurance policies: www.dailymotion.com/video/x31ie1q
And by the way, in their forecast issued at 4.09 pm AEDT on 26/12, the BoM are only forecasting 4 days in a row above 40 for Mildura. It made 40.6 today the 26th, and over 40 is predicted for the next 3 days, but then 35 on the 30th and 37 on the 31st. Still stinking hot, but not a record of any kind.
The ABC story with its confident prediction of 6 days in a row above 40 C is unchanged about 6 hours after this forecast, let’s see if they change it at all.
Two more 5 day December heatwaves way back in
1896 December
23
24
25
26
27
41.10
42.80
40.00
40.00
44.40
1897 December
27
28
29
30
31
41.10
42.80
42.80
42.80
40.00
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1896&p_c=-1157768663&p_stn_num=076077
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1897&p_c=-1157768663&p_stn_num=076077
I would be interested to know what these temperatures are homogenised to, assuming this is the raw data.
Well well, maybe the ABC is following us because the story – “updated earlier today at 1.45 am” now drops the six day claim and states only that “It will be the first time since 1931 that Mildura, on the Murray River in Victoria’s north-west, has had five consecutive December days above 40C.”
A pity they can’t count to five, or rather that that do count to five when they only have four. The top temp on Christmas day was 39.0, it topped 40 on the 26th, and it is predicted to top forty on 27, 28 and 29 December, but 35 C is predicted for 30 December, see here: www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mildura.shtml and here: www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3051.latest.shtml
26, 27, 28, 29 December, total 4, ABC please note.
‘…….. with the town of Fitzroy Crossing expecting a maximum of 47C, breaking the previous annual record of 46.5C, which was set earlier this month.’
Fitzroy crossing got to 45.9C yesterday (26th Dec).
Missed by that much.
@David Brewer
Thanks for that Looney Tunes link.
In my view, the Daffy Duck characterisation is the cleverest comic cartoon creation ever done.
On topic, the typical Aus Southern Hemisphere summer cycle of a blocking high slowly heating over the desert for a week or two and then pushed out by a low coming in from the Antarctic for a week or two is quite normal. We experience 3-4 of these each summer over December, January, February. The largest power demand is obviously at the peak of the heating high – this is when grid failure is most likely. The idiots who are destroying grid reliability have luck on their side, as the long summer holidays reduce normal demand (the country goes to sleep for a month), generally over 1.5-2 of these cycles. So far, the peaks of the cycles at risk have occurred over weekends (lucky, lucky) but one or two will occur by normal distribution in the middle of a productive work week …
Re Canberra Airport(Dec record 39.2 in 1994)
Christmas Eve was forecast 30 but made 28.6
Christmas Day was forecast 33 but made 31.8
Boxing Day was forecast 35 but made 34.4
today 27thDec was forecast 37 but made 36
When viewing/hearing media items re heatwave and temperature records; claims of records are often made from stations with a short data history. For example today on ABC TV News Melinda a presenter from Wagga claimed that the 44.5 at Hay today was a record but Hay Airport only started in 2007. Before that there was Hay Miller Street that has daily data digitised from 1957 and the December record hot day record is 45.2 from 2005. Too difficult for the BoM people feeding copy to Melinda to figure out.
Hay Miller Street has monthly data from 1881 and it would be good if the lost 75 years of our daily weather history could be digitised.
Then there is the huge issue that daily max’s today are generated from electronic data spikes much shorter in duration than temperature changes that would have been recorded by mercury in glass thermometers.
Another issue is that the BoM in recent years has started increasing numbers of new stations in remote areas. The more sample points you have the greater chance of making higher or lower records.
I notice that Bendigo Airport weather station 81123 has been out of action since ~ 20 December.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=081123
Maybe it is being upgrading or relocated to accommodate the requirements of Qantas scheduled flights due to commence in March 2019?
www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/5801619/new-qantas-service-to-fly-from-bendigo-to-sydney-six-days-a-week/
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/cvg/av?p_stn_num=081123&p_prim_element_index=0&p_nccObsCode=122&period_of_avg=&normals_years=&redraw=null&p_display_type=enlarged_map
This morning ABC TV weather news twice reported that Oak Valley in South Australia is headed for 48 today. When I check there is no weather station at Oak Valley which is in indigenous lands north of Cook and further west from Maralinga. Is this a new BoM trend making predictions for places with no data?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oak_Valley,_South_Australia
” Is this a new BoM trend making predictions for places with no data?”
Good for them, as no-one can prove them wrong.
It has its own BOM forecast page –
www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/oakvalley.shtml
The nearest stations are Tacoola and Coober Pedy with forecasts today of maximums 47 and 46 respectively.
They have change the forecast for Mildura again.
Tomorrow 29th max 39.
www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mildura.shtml
So does that mean the original forecast was for 6 days above 40,
then 5, then 4, now 3 ?
I make it 26, 27, 28 above 40, but tomorrow forecast 39.
check out this article trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/64889112?fbclid=IwAR3SN7T84nacc6Z7w1ViwEJUomPZudZjz7O2hq8s4Qn7PGi5PmfbaUbCRUc some fairly high temps there
From the BoM (WA).
‘Marble Bar hit a max temperature of 49.3°C today; its hottest day since temperature records began there in 1901. ‘
Yes, but they don’t mention that it beat a record set there in 1922 by 0.1C.
Those sensitive AWS thermometers.
Interesting ABC take quoting 28 days of +40 at Tennant Creek when there are only 24 days +40 to when the ABC published early evening on the 27th. So they assume all days to the 31st will top 40 – they may be right. But surely there is a danger here that pressure is put on the BoM to find a spike to call a marginal 39.9 a whisker higher. Just for interest if BoM was counting consecutive +40 days then both 1925 and 1938 at 16 consec. days would beat 2018 which had 13 consec. days 1st to 13th.
Outback town smashes temperature records with 28 days above 40C in one month 27Dec18
BTW – Canberra today to keep- the series alive
28thDec was forecast 38 but made 36.8
“BOM forecaster Bradley Wood said Tennant Creek’s month in the cauldron “completely smashes their previous record”.
“Previously the most they’d had in a month was 20 [days] in January 2008,” Mr Wood said.
Prior to that, the town had sizzled for 16 days of over-40C heat in 1972.”
Those statements don’t appear to be true.
1938 December 22 days above 40.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1938&p_c=-45752791&p_stn_num=015087
1933 Jan 21 days
1925 Dec 21 days
Wazz, apologies I forgot you already mentioned 1938 and 1925 for Tennant Creek, above.
Scroll down at the New Daily for the BoM video claiming records on the 27th for Whyalla, Hay, Adelaide and Albury.
Whyalla has no daily data before 1955 but the 46.8 was a Dec. record. Adelaide West Terrace saw 44.2 in 1904 so a dodgy BoM claim for Adelaide – ditto for Hay where Miller St read 45.2 in 2005 so no record there(daily data from 1881 to 1956 not digitised). And Albury for some reason known to history has poor long term data so easy to claim a record there.
Re Marble Bar’s all-time record maximum of 49.3C a couple of days ago, to half a degree that depends on which dataset you wish to believe.
The BoM has prematurely released daily temperatures for ACORN 2, which will presumably replace ACORN 1 established in 2012 as the reference network for historic comparisons at 112 locations around Australia since 1910.
In ACORN 2, the hottest day ever at Marble Bar was 49.8C on 1 January 1973, half a degree hotter than 49.3C. ACORN 1 listed this day as 48.9C and raw temps show it was 48.8C.
It depends upon whether you wish to believe the totally inaccurate raw temps or the homogenised and impeccably accurate ACORN temps. /sarc
ACORN 1 listed WA’s south coastal town of Albany as 51.2C on 8 February 1933, making it Australia’s hottest day ever if ACORN is considered more accurate than raw, but ACORN 2 has adjusted this day’s max down to 49.5C, making it Australia’s equal ninth hottest ever day (Albany’s raw temp on 8 February 1933 was 44.8C).
Forrest in WA is listed in both ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 as 50.1C on 13 Jan 1979, which would make it Australia’s fourth hottest ever day (Forrest’s raw temperature on 13 January 1979 was 49.8C, so by coincidence it was actually the equal fourth hottest).
By the look of it and despite bizarre hot examples such as above, the ACORN 2 dailies have cooled Australia’s early to mid 20th century maximum temps by around 0.2C to 0.3C, with historic min cooling by about half that.
These are daily temps rather than monthlies used by the BoM to calculate annuals, and scattered or consecutive days of missing temps at several stations can distort the averages (up or down).
Nevertheless it appears that if/when ACORN 2 becomes the BoM’s operational temperature reference dataset to replace ACORN 1, Australia will have suddenly warmed by about an extra 0.2C since 1910.
Lost for words Chris thinking of ACORN versions for that peak Albany hot day.
BTW – Canberra today 29thDec was forecast 38 but made 36.7
30thDec was forecast 35 but made 34.5
31stDec was forecast 30 but made 34.1
‘And Albury for some reason known to history has poor long term data so easy to claim a record there.’
The closest site to Albury with a long-term record is Wagga Wagga (127kms north).
Wagga Wagga had 47.2C on 30th Dc, 1904 so, using the BoM’s favourite method of area shading temps, Albury wouldn’t have been far behind.
Chris
How do you access ACORN-SAT 2 data? Can only find SAT 1.
Thanks
From small acorns to large trees grow.
From falsified acorns do big lies grow.
Ian … www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/hqsites/about-hq-site-data.shtml
The BoM hasn’t yet made any public announcements and these are only dailies, although I’m able to script some fairly rapid calculations of monthly and annual averages since 1910.
There are only nine WA ACORN stations that start 1910 and finish 2017 in both ACORN 1 and ACORN 2. They suggest that in the first and second halves of the record (1910-1964 vs 1964-2017), ACORN 2 has added an extra 0.21C to max and 0.09C to min warming compared to ACORN 1. That’s only nine sites and I’m not sure what the statewide change will be when the magical ACORN formulas are applied to all 25 WA sites (note that Kalumburu max are presently unavailable because the BoM has mistakenly put Halls Creek data in that file).
A fair few more WA sites in ACORN 2 were cooler in 1961-90 than they were in ACORN 1, which may or may not affect future anomaly baseline references (a standout is Halls Creek max where 1961-90 was 33.94C in ACORN 1 and 32.75C in ACORN 2).
Based on a WA analysis, the most significant ACORN 2 change is a cooling of site maxima in the earlier 20th century. For example and again comparing 1910-1963 with 1964-2017, Perth warmed by 0.48C under ACORN 1 but warmed by 0.94C under ACORN 2.
All the BoM site data is still based on ACORN 1 and I’d assume that sometime in the new year the bureau will update all of its dataset references to ACORN 2. I say assume because it would otherwise seem pointless to have reworked ACORN 1, a dataset that I argue should now be seen as having been inaccurate since its 2012 implementation.
Of course, that in turn assumes that ACORN 2 is accurate. Since they seemingly got ACORN 1 wrong ( historic daily temps everywhere up and down, sometimes by 2C or more), why should ACORN 2 be assumed to be any better?
Perhaps non-adjusted raw temps are more reliable, although even they are dubious because of legitimate artificial influences such as site moves, shelter changes, etc, that do indeed need “homogenising” (e.g. 1972 metrication, prior to which more than 60% of all temps across Australia were recorded as rounded .0F without decimals, in my opinion with a downward rather than upward bias, and which the BoM concedes had a 0.1C warming influence but doesn’t include in its adjustments).
They’re all just nuts to me.
Not too unrelated to the above is BOM’s disgraceful beat-up of an El Nino for 2018, which began at the end of September when the SOI hit negative10.0. BOM used this as an excuse to infer , along with alleged high Pacific ocean temperatures, a very high probability full fledged El Nino before the end of 2018. All accompanied with the frightening descriptions of what all that would mean for Australia. More and more droughts, heat waves, etc.
Like too many of BOM’s dire predictions (or is it hopes?) this hasn’t happened! and since mid November, BOM have been wringing their collective hands to say that it should have happened, but hasn’t yet, but it still should!!(www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive.shtml). Latest SOI today (dated 28/12/18) is 10.1. (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt).
Of course a trend toward El Nino can develop at any time, but BOM’s premature and irresponsible seizing on a bit of information in September to permit them to forecast doom and gloom (all with the usual Anthropogenic Climate Change hypothesis agenda in the background) and so promote general hysteria about the weather for months, is, to me, beyond the pale – certainly for a publicly owned /funded organization. The management that permits(encourages?) this sort of thing (along with the ABC who publish it) should be severely brought to heel by any government – certainly a coalition one which ostensibly stands for more rational views on such matters.
Thanks for that Chris.
Very interesting about Marble Bar’s highest temp on A-S2.
Yes, ACORN 1 was a disgrace. For instance, I was checking the raw temps for Bourke for Jan, 1939 and found the BoM had changed every daily max temp for that period. All +30C were adjusted down, sometimes by 1.0C, and the two below 30C were up – by 0.1C. Must have been some movement during that month.
Prior to ACORN, the BoM had monthly temp averages for many long-term weather stations on a site called High Quality data. There were quite large downward adjustments to monthly records (up to 0.7C for earlier years). That site has now disappeared.
Well put Jim. The BoM seems to be a “sacred cow” of such elevated holiness that few politicians or public figures have the stomach, spine or nous to question them. Senate Estimates are a great opportunity that our parliamentary system regularly provides for the public shafting of pompous liars and rubbish peddlers spreading harm across our public life. Yet the last time I checked Senate Estimates hearings I witnessed the BoM revelling in a festival of meticulously composed GreenLeft Dorothy Dixers.
There is a great need for some of our pollies to ask some simple questions of the BoM at Senate Estimates.
1000 pressure and 70kph winds – BOM should be declaring it a cyclone at any minute!
Jim you should give BOM away for SOI. They probably fiddle it as they do with everything else -temperatures, rain, evaporation etc.
Use this site www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Further to above everyone interested in past records and forecasts have a look at the posters here www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/
Clicking on the poster will open them in pdf. One can then expand them to see details. Have a look at the cyclone tracks. Comparing to 10 years ago it could well be that there will be some cyclones in 2019 on the east coast of Qld.
I like the QDPI rainfall history maps and blogged on the subject last March.
Warwick you did thanks. I wonder if anyone else can note a pattern. Look back across from the 2017-2018 map. Does it not appear that this is a dry period line? ie every 10 years it is dry across Australia (maybe it should be about eleven years to coincide with cycles in the sun and the orbit of Jupiter)
Going by the patterns the coming year should be wetter and have more cyclones.
Did not Inidgo Jones and Lennox Walker look at patterns for forecasts?
cementafriend
Did not Inidgo Jones and Lennox Walker look at patterns for forecasts?
Inigo Jones handed his methods on to Lennox Walker. Inigo Jones was effectively trained as a meteorologist by the man who brought the Stevenson screen to Australia in 1884, Clement Wragge. He used at least three methods for different length predictions.
1) Short term, Standard meteorology.
2) Medium range, current sunspot conditions.
3) Long range, the combined effects of multiple well known climate cycles. All the above had mostly been researched and well proven long before his time. He just seems to have combined all he could find worthy.
Regarding the sunspot conditions Here is Sir John Herschel deducing the electrical potential of solar and cosmic radiation effecting our weather in cycles from variable stars like our sun in an 1848 newspaper from an earlier publication of his father William’s work.
trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/12900652/1515921
Here published just this December is the confirmation that Inigo Jones and Herschel before him were on to how our convection is driven by the solar wind from the sunspot related flares. Now we know coronal holes also send the wind.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305765
Lance Pidgeon.
Looks like BOM can’t find a sparkie to fix Bendigo Airport AWS station 81123 which has been out of action since around 20 December and still seems to be AWOL. Apparently it’s out of action because of an electrical fault:
www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/5831637/weather-station-remains-out-of-action/
Siliggy, re last link. It lost me when it mentioned gravity waves. I think gravity waves have supposedly been measured by LIGO originating from the merger of two black holes.
Look at this YouTube video www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev10ywLFq6E.
I have a pdf of a published paper by Steven Crothers disputing gravity waves existence. I understand no one has measured gravity waves except LIGO’s claims which are BS
cementafriend
There are two very different meanings to “gravity waves” The LIGO thing is the other one.
So don’t be put off by that. To me nothing makes more sense than an electrical rotation motor effect on ionized air. It is just so simple i have been saying it to deaf ears for years.
More about those clouds.
“Not to be confused with gravitational waves, gravity waves are ripples that occur between layers of fluids with different densities.
Much as the wake of a boat is formed when water is pushed upward by the boat and pulled down again by gravity, these clouds are formed by the rise and fall of air columns.
As the wave moves through the cloud band, the wave peaks appear clouds and the troughs appear cloud-free.”
cosmosmagazine.com/geoscience/gravity-waves-make-stripy-clouds
Lance you said – Clement Wragge “brought the Stevenson screen to Australia in 1884”.
While Wragge was an enthusiastic proponent of the Stevenson screen – it was in use here prior to 1884. See my blog from 2010 – there are photos and references – including “Melbourne 1879 – from Museum Victoria.”
JoNova has more on the Marble Bar/Albany temps for those interesting.
Just to wrap the Mildura prediction failure. BoM started before Christmas calling six consecutive days over 40 for Mildura which was to break a 1931 record. They also said Mildura would top 45. Upshot is Mildura had THREE consecutive days over 40 with a max of 43.8.
BOM must have found a sparkie, the Bendigo Airport weather station (81123) seems to be operating again!
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801/IDV60801.94855.shtml
Lance, saw this at the Cosmos site “A perfect storm of natural catastrophes. A cataclysmic eruption near Siberia blasted CO2 into the atmosphere. Methanogenic bacteria responded by belching out methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Global temperatures surged while oceans acidified and stagnated, belching poisonous hydrogen sulfide.
Methane is not a potent greenhouse gas -see my site, first dated article.
CO2 is not a significant contributor to surface temperature even at very high concentrations as shown by many articles on estimated temperatures in comparison with measured temperatures of Venus, Earth and Mars.
Ocean acidification is nonsense. Since life began Oceans have had a pH greater than 7.0 and thus are basic rather than acidic.
I suggest that the Cosmos magazine allows articles by alarmists who have no understanding of heat transfer, thermodynamics, fluid dynamics or reaction kinetics which are chemical engineering subjects.
Just as well BOM had Bendigo Airport (81123) AWS fixed yesterday, today it recorded a new January maximum temperature, 44.5C at 04:20pm this afternoon. The previous record, 43.8C was in January 2014.
Wazz
“Melbourne 1879 – from Museum Victoria.”
Thanks for that. Any idea who was responsible for it?
Lance