The NIWA vs NZCET court result will be picked apart on more notable blogs than this – however I am curious about a few things in the 49 page “Judgement of Venning J”. My interest is mainly on the Clauses on the subject of the station data. To start though I want to look at Clause 176 – I will be interested to hear what readers think.
My press release from 2006 is still online here.
Here is Clause 176 from the Judgement –
I can not see that Judge Vennings paraphrasing of what Dr Wratt said about contrasting winds before and after 1945 – can have any bearing on the point in my press release which was that two IPCC compliant expert groups (Jones/CRU and NIWA) – both with access to the same database of station data – disagreed greatly about the long term New Zealand temperature trend – over whatever exact period chosen. I was pointing out how the science is not settled.
Wind affects equally the station data used by CRU & NIWA and is not a cause of the CRU – NIWA long-term trend divergence – as Venning J seems to conclude Dr Wratt has shown.
Category Archives: NZ Climate Science Coalition
News from climate skeptics in New Zealand
Surprising wording in NIWA affidavit re BoM’s work – filed in New Zealand court case
Originally posted Feb 2012 – taken down late March due legal reasons.
For newcomers – about a year ago I lodged a FOI request with the BoM to see documents relating to a “peer review” they had conducted for NIWA and I reported last May when the BoM decided that all the documents were secret.
Then last October I posted a progress report when the BoM found a few more documents from earlier in October 2010 than previous.
I currently have an appeal in with the OAIC.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition NZCSC has a long running court action underway against NIWA trying to obtain documents relating to the “official” NZ temperature history. The Climate Conversation site has much information on the court case.
I was sent me several NIWA affidavits from 2011 – the affidavit for 5 July 2011 is noteworthy as it contains some clauses showing that NIWA is trying to be specific about what the BoM has done. I quote from Clause 7 – “….the Bureau did not itself produce any peer review report…”
NIWA is saying that all that took place was a to & fro process of emailed comments and replies about material provided by NIWA – “iterative” as they say at the start of clause 7.
I note in the TM5 undated (April 2011) legal letter from the BoM to NIWA – in 2-2 it says “The review covering letter and final report…”
We have the covering letter public (14 Dec 2010 letter linked above) – but is NIWA now saying about the “final report” – that there is no such thing ?
List of six pdf court documents
Note the odd fact that whoever drafted the NIWA affidavits wrongly labels themselves in clause 1 by stating – “I am the plaintiff’s general counsel” The cover pages show NIWA is the defendant in these proceedings. Anyway – on with the list.
[1] Letter from NZ Ombudsman to NZCSC knocking them back June 2010.
[2] My 18 Feb 11 FOI letter to BoM – sent by BoM to NIWA in April – also attached is the 14 Dec 10 BoM public covering letter to NIWA.
[3] Legal letter from BoM to NIWA asking them for the “right stuff” to help BoM keep all the docs secret in Australia.
[4] Legal letter NIWA to BoM complying chapter and verse.
[5] Affidavit from NIWA 1 July 2011
[6] Affidavit from NIWA 5 July 2011 – with the fascinating clause 7.
Outbreak of common sense in New Zealand as “Slow economy puts ETS plans on hold”
Fancy the Kiwis announcing this exactly as Australia takes a huge step in the opposite direction. Our Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be sending her Kiwi counterpart a thank you John message – I am sure.
[The Government has indefinitely postponed key stages of the emissions trading scheme, saying the economic environment means consumers and businesses simply can’t afford it.
The announcement comes as Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s political future hangs in the balance due to the introduction of a carbon tax there this week.
But Prime Minister John Key said his Government’s decision had not been influenced by the political fallout in Australia. Rather, it was acting on concerns the economy would suffer if New Zealand did more than other countries to reduce carbon emissions.
“We’re not prepared to sacrifice jobs in a weak international environment when other countries are moving very slowly,” he said.]
Christchurch coldest day recorded at 0.4 degrees C – that is since 1863
It must be remembered that the period of our instrumental weather data is short when compared to say the ~15,000 years since the last ice age.
We must also remember that cold records are set in the face of the ever expanding urban heat island (UHI). So cold records are more remarkable than warm records that are assisted higher by the ever increasing UHI.
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Thanks to Kiwis for tip off re NASA image.
NIWA admits prediction of average summer was wrong
Amazing stuff – IPCC compliant organization admits fault.
Niwa concedes summer outlook off the mark
By Matthew Backhouse – NZ Herald
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Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?
Are the New Zealand NIWA Outlooks as useless as those of the Australian BoM ?
Readers have pointed out to me the huge rain totals for various parts of Aotearoa for December 2011. So I checked the NIWA 3 month Outlook for December-February issued on 1st Dec 2011.
Not the slightest hint of the heavy rains – so if they could miss that huge event coming down the pipeline hardly two weeks away – are they really worth their salaries ? Also press articles faithfully trumpeting the stock-standard NIWA line – “Niwa predicts long, hot summer” – how the MSM GreenLeft media love to print this stuff.
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Reverse serendipity in the NIWA article “New Zealand’s rain falls mainly in the mountains” published 20 December – just after most of the rainfalls shown on above map. Note how the peak December rains were mostly NOT in the mountains. Maybe there is a Weather God.
FOI update – The BoM has no record of contacts by NIWA before 16 August 2010
Last May I reported on my February FOI request to the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their peer review of the seven station series for NIWA. See my article – “Australian FOI law keeps secret the construction of New Zealand seven station temperature series”. Note that the BoM Schedule of Documents supplied to me commences on 30 August 2010.
The Kiwis brought to my attention the following question and answer in the New Zealand Parliament 18 March 2010.
This indicates that NIWA had contacted – was corresponding with the BoM six-months PRIOR to the 30 August 2010 commencing date for documents they found pursuant to my February 2011 FOI request.
On 31 May I emailed the BoM and drew their attention to this six-month discrepancy. Twenty weeks later and the BoM has just sent me an addendum to their original Schedule of Documents – see link above.
This Addendum lists 14 more NIWA/BoM documents (all exempt) – but dated from 16 August 1 September 2010. So it looks to me that the BoM are saying – “…we have no record of NIWA contacting us prior to 16 August 2010.”
Australian FOI law keeps secret the construction of New Zealand seven station temperature series
In 2010 the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) with the assistance of four months help from the Australian BoM revised their seven station NZ temperature series to arrive at a national temperature trend from 1910. This is a much shorter period than the previous seven station series which was from before 1860.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) started with an Official Information Act request on 21 December 2009 – attempting to obtain from NIWA details of the adjustments and construction of the seven station series from the many component data. These efforts did not succeed and I think in August 2010 they started court action against NIWA – which I understand is not over.
At the end of August 2010 NIWA sought the assistance of the Australian BoM to check their seven station series and in late December 2010 the revised NIWA seven station trend was published.
The NZ blog Climate Conversation Group has an article on 28th April “NIWA — show us the peer review!” – where they discuss the unsatisfactory state of affairs due to NIWA secretly adjusting raw station data to make their high warming seven station trend a trend that is unverifiable until NIWA releases details.
In February 2011 I lodged an FOI request with the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their work on the seven station series for NIWA. After a couple of extensions of time – on 6th May they emailed me the following pdf files which in a nutshell – tell me that all relevant documents and data are “fully exempt” from the FOI Act – and are thus still secret.
First the BoM reasons for refusal.
- Some relevant sections of the FOI Act
- Schedule of Documents – a very interesting list of 159 exempt documents comprising over 1600 pages plus 642 files – there may be some duplication.
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This schedule shows the “peer review” process started at the end of August 2010 and the list ends on Christmas Eve – pretty much four months.
I am hoping that people smarter than I might see ways to carry on the battle to get these papers and files released.
What can be so secret about the things publicly funded scientists and bureaucrats do to adjust common garden old weather records into a form that suits them? We are not talking about nuclear weapons secrets here.
There were two other pdf files
- References to papers on homogenising climate data;
- The BoM covering letter to NIWA 14 Dec 2010 already public.
Added 7.30pm 7 May: Please note the anti-spam function is catching many good comments now and holding them for approval. So please be patient if your comment does not appear quickly.
Simple GISS diagram illustrating warming effect of conventional “adjustments” of “steps” in T data due to site moves outward from urban centre.
I have been reading the 169 page NIWA pdf – “Report on the Review of NIWA’s “Seven-Station” Temperature Series December 2010” – downloaded here
I have not yet found the BoM review – only the one page letter from the BoM – see pdf page 13 in the above.
I draw readers attention to the excellent little GISS diagrams which perfectly illustrate the warming effect of adjusting out the multitude of step changes which are common throughout all temperature data as thousands of recording sites have been moved outwards in their respective urban areas.
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – before adjustment.
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – after adjustment – now with UHI warmed trend built in.
Reading their 169 page pdf report above – it is crystal clear that NIWA do exactly this – repeatedly adjusting out step changes – all through their seven station series – in this way NIWA cement UHI warming in their NZ 7 station century long adjusted trend.
PS: I had a little post on this in 2006
Wrist slashing ETS in New Zealand
Sent in by a couple of Concerned Kiwis
On July 1st New Zealanders became the first country in the world to pay for their carbon emissions, an all gases, all sectors ETS through a Government sponsored scheme.
The householders of this small country will pay dearly and suffer a reduced standard of living because they are being forced to pay this punitive tax. Householder bear half the costs while accounting for only 20% of the country’s emissions.
The country as a whole will suffer through reduced international competitiveness of its industries and farming when our acknowledged figure is 0.2% of global emissions in total.
Why on earth are we leading the world?
Nick Smith, Minister for Climate Change admits that our contributions will have no effect on future climate and that the scheme will not make any inroads into cutting New Zealand’s gross emissions.
We are led to believe that by paying this extra tax we NZ’ers are being good
global citizens and that without an ETS we could face penalties on our exports by our trading partners. What a deception, there is no sign of any country imposing any sort of penalty or tariff on internationally traded goods based on an ineffective or non-existent ETS.
As of today, July 1st petrol, and energy prices increase and that is just the start as these just compound throughout the entire supply chain.
Our National Government seems to want international bragging rights for leading the world, and national gratitude that they reduced the even more draconian proposal from the previous Labour Government. This article by Andrew Bolt reminds us of the backflip by the NZ Prime Minister John Key.
The major powers thumb their noses at a price on emissions and it is not really New Zealand’s place to lead the world in this issue when the science of AGW is in dispute and a long way from being “settled”.
It is an outrage that NZ households should be forced to pay, and pay dearly, where so obviously it will harm our standard of living and will not help us in our endeavour to be good global citizens.