The first map from the AAD gives an idea how far the Aurora Australis had to stand off Davis to fly helicopters – and we are only at the autumn equinox. Note too the current search area for debris ex MH370 is on that map.

The daily sitreps from the ship Aurora Australis – Webcams page – The Cryosphere Today source of satellite sea ice extent image –
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Southern Hemisphere sea ice area looks healthy

On 14 January I faxed The Hon Jamie Briggs MP
Assistant Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development – to read click last link below.
The reply from the Chief of Staff for Minister The Hon Warren Truss is scanned page 1 and page 2.
Just after I wrote, the ship arrived at Bluff NZ where it was reported the captain put out a pan-pan call. Crew thaw after Antarctic ordeal
I my opinion authorities should make public exactly what was heard by Falmouth – was it a mayday or a pan pan? Google mayday and pan pan for background.
Continue reading The Australian Government is not planning a public inquiry into the distress call from the Russian cruise ship Akademik Shokalskiy when it became ice bound in the Antarctic 24 December 2013 →

The Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) has revised its shipping schedule due to heavy sea ice conditions adjacent to Mawson research station. My est location marked M – just west of Amery Ice Shelf.

Satellite image from The Cryosphere Today 23 Jan 2014 – there is an animation there.
Midsummer, decades of global warming, sea ice still impeding access to Antarctica.

Plan to curb Antarctic expeditions after costly rescue of trapped ship – January 23, 2014 – Andrew Darby
A few flags being run up flagpoles here.
AAD still can not count the days the Aurora Australis was held up in ice on the Davis resupply voyage. The ship was impeded on its way in to Davis and on way home – a total of three weeks not 12 days. If they can not get simple arithmetic near right, why should they be trusted with a $180mill budget.

Weatherstreet.com forecast maps indicate much of the USA should expect some brisk weather for 10 days or more. Run mouse along dates at bottom to animate map.

Anthony Watts has an article pointing out that various weather forecast models agree on this.

Read the ships sitrep for Wednesday 8-Jan-2014 – and the previous one saying they still have 420,000 litres of distillate to pipe ashore – now they are sailing a box pattern 20 miles out to sea until wind conditions ease.

Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) costs circa $4million a week so we see now the consequences of the Christmas “distress” call by MV Akademik Shokalskiy which was carrying The Australasian Antarctic Expedition AAE; the 50 odd members of which plus journalists are now on board the Aurora Australis.
This map of global winds is worth a look,

Casey is the small pink asterisk near the 110°E longitude line.

Just a tiny counterbalance to our BoM exaggerated heat wave stories. BBC says – N America weather: Polar vortex brings record temperatures – this map from USAToday National weather – click on National. Temperatures in Fahrenheit of course – 32F=0C

This masterly map of global winds shows the northerly’s cooling North America and the Atlantic winds warming the eastern seaboard and Florida. And what a spectacular North Atlantic cyclone keeping moist Atlantic air flow over the UK. U.S. and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover – click for latest maps

Late yesterday The Australasian Antarctic Expedition (AAE) people were transferred to the Aurora Australis by the helicopter from the Chinese ice breaker the Xue Long. You might expect after several days of frustrating delays they might have hit the track for Casey pronto after loading on the 2nd Jan.
According to the ships webcam – not so.

As of 5.30am 3rd Jan 2014 the Aurora Australis webcam showed the ship heading south west – yes south west and still pretty much circumscribed by a decent quota of wall to wall ice. And no sign of a large clear track from the stern camera. Presumably they are seeking the best track to clear water.
10am the webcam shows the ship heading nor-north west still in wall to wall ice.
AAD media 3 Jan 14 – no mention ship is still obstructed.
1330AEDT still in ice heading SW again.

The background to this is in my article two down on December 26th, 2013 – The Australasian Antarctic Expedition (AAE) is delayed onboard the MV Akademik Shokalskiy which has issued a distress signal while beset by ice –
Today we are told by AMSA that the RSV Aurora Australis is due tonight after the Chinese ice breaker MV Xue long could not break through to free the Russian registered cruise ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy which has been locked in ice since early morning on the 25th Dec.
I think a salient point is that the Aurora Australis weighs in at 8,158 tons displacement compared to 21,025 for the Xue long.

I would be amazed if, in a fair contest with both trying to clear a path through equivalent ice – the Australian ship could break a path through ice that blocks the much heavier Xue Long.

But maybe we will see tonight – perhaps the Aurora Australis has experience on its side.
The main thing is that AMSA can ensure that people on the Russian ship can be extricated to safety – whatever means have to be used.